Treasuries are back to a normal directional relationship with equities today, with prices modestly higher across the curve amid general weakness in global stock markets. There were no specific headlines driving activity overnight, but jitters remain over emerging market stresses and expectations for more tariffs against China.  Major European and Asian equity indices are down 0.9-2.5%, and S&P 500 futures are currently down 9 points. Yesterday’s ISM manufacturing report greatly exceeded expectations, printing at the second highest reading in 25 years. The divergence in economic growth between the U.S. and the rest of the world continues to put upward pressure on the dollar, which has weighed on emerging markets (in general). Two Fed doves are speaking day. St. Louis Fed President is presenting in New York this morning, and  Minneapolis Fed President Neel Kashkari will host a town hall forum later this afternoon.

Jason Haley
Managing Director, Investment Management Group

Date TimeEventSurveyActualPriorRevised
09/04/2018Markit US Manufacturing PMI54.554.754.5
09/04/2018Construction Spending MoM0.40%0.10%-1.10%-0.80%
09/04/2018ISM Manufacturing57.661.358.1
09/04/2018ISM Employment58.556.5
09/04/2018ISM Prices Paid69.572.173.2
09/04/2018ISM New Orders65.160.2
09/04/2018Wards Total Vehicle Sales16.80m16.60m16.68m
09/05/2018MBA Mortgage Applications-0.10%-1.70%
09/05/2018Trade Balance-$50.2b-$50.1b-$46.3b-$45.7b
09/06/2018Challenger Job Cuts YoY-4.20%
09/06/2018ADP Employment Change200k219k
09/06/2018Nonfarm Productivity2.90%2.90%
09/06/2018Unit Labor Costs-0.90%-0.90%
09/06/2018Initial Jobless Claims213k213k
09/06/2018Continuing Claims1720k1708k
09/06/2018Bloomberg Consumer Comfort58.3
09/06/2018Markit US Services PMI55.255.2
09/06/2018Markit US Composite PMI55
09/06/2018ISM Non-Manufacturing Index56.855.7
09/06/2018Factory Orders-0.60%0.70%
09/06/2018Factory Orders Ex Trans0.40%
09/06/2018Durable Goods Orders-1.70%-1.70%
09/06/2018Durables Ex Transportation0.20%
09/06/2018Cap Goods Orders Nondef Ex Air1.40%
09/06/2018Cap Goods Ship Nondef Ex Air0.90%
09/07/2018Change in Nonfarm Payrolls195k157k
09/07/2018Two-Month Payroll Net Revision
09/07/2018Change in Private Payrolls194k170k
09/07/2018Change in Manufact. Payrolls24k37k
09/07/2018Unemployment Rate3.80%3.90%
09/07/2018Underemployment Rate7.50%
09/07/2018Average Hourly Earnings MoM0.20%0.30%
09/07/2018Average Hourly Earnings YoY2.70%2.70%
09/07/2018Average Weekly Hours All Employees34.534.5
09/07/2018Labor Force Participation Rate62.90%