Treasuries are back to a normal directional relationship with equities today, with prices modestly higher across the curve amid general weakness in global stock markets. There were no specific headlines driving activity overnight, but jitters remain over emerging market stresses and expectations for more tariffs against China. Major European and Asian equity indices are down 0.9-2.5%, and S&P 500 futures are currently down 9 points. Yesterday’s ISM manufacturing report greatly exceeded expectations, printing at the second highest reading in 25 years. The divergence in economic growth between the U.S. and the rest of the world continues to put upward pressure on the dollar, which has weighed on emerging markets (in general). Two Fed doves are speaking day. St. Louis Fed President is presenting in New York this morning, and Minneapolis Fed President Neel Kashkari will host a town hall forum later this afternoon.
Jason Haley
Managing Director, Investment Management Group
| Date Time | Event | Survey | Actual | Prior | Revised |
| 09/04/2018 | Markit US Manufacturing PMI | 54.5 | 54.7 | 54.5 | — |
| 09/04/2018 | Construction Spending MoM | 0.40% | 0.10% | -1.10% | -0.80% |
| 09/04/2018 | ISM Manufacturing | 57.6 | 61.3 | 58.1 | — |
| 09/04/2018 | ISM Employment | — | 58.5 | 56.5 | — |
| 09/04/2018 | ISM Prices Paid | 69.5 | 72.1 | 73.2 | — |
| 09/04/2018 | ISM New Orders | — | 65.1 | 60.2 | — |
| 09/04/2018 | Wards Total Vehicle Sales | 16.80m | 16.60m | 16.68m | — |
| 09/05/2018 | MBA Mortgage Applications | — | -0.10% | -1.70% | — |
| 09/05/2018 | Trade Balance | -$50.2b | -$50.1b | -$46.3b | -$45.7b |
| 09/06/2018 | Challenger Job Cuts YoY | — | — | -4.20% | — |
| 09/06/2018 | ADP Employment Change | 200k | — | 219k | — |
| 09/06/2018 | Nonfarm Productivity | 2.90% | — | 2.90% | — |
| 09/06/2018 | Unit Labor Costs | -0.90% | — | -0.90% | — |
| 09/06/2018 | Initial Jobless Claims | 213k | — | 213k | — |
| 09/06/2018 | Continuing Claims | 1720k | — | 1708k | — |
| 09/06/2018 | Bloomberg Consumer Comfort | — | — | 58.3 | — |
| 09/06/2018 | Markit US Services PMI | 55.2 | — | 55.2 | — |
| 09/06/2018 | Markit US Composite PMI | — | — | 55 | — |
| 09/06/2018 | ISM Non-Manufacturing Index | 56.8 | — | 55.7 | — |
| 09/06/2018 | Factory Orders | -0.60% | — | 0.70% | — |
| 09/06/2018 | Factory Orders Ex Trans | — | — | 0.40% | — |
| 09/06/2018 | Durable Goods Orders | -1.70% | — | -1.70% | — |
| 09/06/2018 | Durables Ex Transportation | — | — | 0.20% | — |
| 09/06/2018 | Cap Goods Orders Nondef Ex Air | — | — | 1.40% | — |
| 09/06/2018 | Cap Goods Ship Nondef Ex Air | — | — | 0.90% | — |
| 09/07/2018 | Change in Nonfarm Payrolls | 195k | — | 157k | — |
| 09/07/2018 | Two-Month Payroll Net Revision | — | — | — | — |
| 09/07/2018 | Change in Private Payrolls | 194k | — | 170k | — |
| 09/07/2018 | Change in Manufact. Payrolls | 24k | — | 37k | — |
| 09/07/2018 | Unemployment Rate | 3.80% | — | 3.90% | — |
| 09/07/2018 | Underemployment Rate | — | — | 7.50% | — |
| 09/07/2018 | Average Hourly Earnings MoM | 0.20% | — | 0.30% | — |
| 09/07/2018 | Average Hourly Earnings YoY | 2.70% | — | 2.70% | — |
| 09/07/2018 | Average Weekly Hours All Employees | 34.5 | — | 34.5 | — |
| 09/07/2018 | Labor Force Participation Rate | — | — | 62.90% | — |