Yesterday’s rally in Treasuries continued overnight, with the 10-year yield touching 2.05% during Asian trading before bouncing off the lows. Prices are modestly lower this morning, but the overall risk tone in the markets remains subdued with ongoing geopolitical concerns and another major hurricane headed toward the Florida coast.  Oil prices are up 7% since last Wednesday, and gasoline futures have come off 6% from last Thursday’s peak.  Reports overnight suggest that the debt ceiling could be raised before the week is over, using Harvey relief funding to get it done. The House is expected to pass a “clean” Harvey bill today (no debt ceiling legislation included), but according to Politico, the Senate would then attach a debt ceiling rider to the Harvey bill and pass it back to the House for a new vote.  The article also suggests that the White House will come out today in support of that plan, which will likely require heavy support from Democrats.  The ECB meets tomorrow and will release its decision on current policies. Deutsche Bank CEO John Cryan spoke earlier this morning and called for the ECB to follow the Fed’s lead and begin the policy normalization process, warning that he sees potential price bubbles in stocks, bonds, and real estate in the region.

Jason Haley
Managing Director, Investment Management Group

Date TimeEvent SurveyActualPriorRevised
09/06/2017 07:00MBA Mortgage Applications1-Sep3.30%-2.30%
09/06/2017 08:30Trade BalanceJul-$44.7b-$43.7b-$43.6b-$43.5b
09/06/2017 09:45Markit US Services PMIAug F56.95656.9
09/06/2017 09:45Markit US Composite PMIAug F55.356
09/06/2017 10:00ISM Non-Manf. CompositeAug55.655.353.9
09/06/2017 14:00U.S. Federal Reserve Releases Beige Book     
09/07/2017 08:30Initial Jobless Claims2-Sep245k236k
09/07/2017 08:30Nonfarm Productivity2Q F1.30%0.90%
09/07/2017 08:30Continuing Claims26-Aug1945k1942k
09/07/2017 08:30Unit Labor Costs2Q F0.30%0.60%
09/07/2017 09:45Bloomberg Consumer Comfort3-Sep53.3
09/08/2017 10:00Wholesale Inventories MoMJul F0.40%0.40%
09/08/2017 10:00Wholesale Trade Sales MoMJul0.50%0.70%
09/08/2017 15:00Consumer CreditJul$15.000b$12.397b