September 6, 2019 Headlines

Treasury prices are modestly lower as investors digest the August payrolls report, as well as additional stimulus from the Chinese central bank. Regarding the latter, the PBOC lowered the reserve requirement for banks 50 bps, which was not terribly surprising, but the decision to cut reserve requirements for small and mid-size banks by an additional 100 bps was more unexpected.

Nonfarm payrolls added 130,000 jobs in August, 30,000 less than expected, and the prior two months were revised lower by an aggregate 20,000 jobs. The headline unemployment rate held steady at 3.7% with both household employment and the official labor pool increasing by more than 550,000. While payrolls growth was weaker than expected, wage growth surprised to the upside. Average hourly earnings rose 0.4% m/m (0.3% expected), and on a year-over-year basis, wages were up 3.2%, which was 20 bps above expectations. Moreover, the average work week increased to 34.4 hours (higher hourly earnings and more hours worked).

Jason Haley
Managing Director, Investment Management Group

DateEventSurveyActualPriorRevised
9/6/2019Change in Nonfarm Payrolls160k130k164k159k
9/6/2019Two-Month Payroll Net Revision-20k
9/6/2019Change in Private Payrolls150k96k148k131k
9/6/2019Change in Manufact. Payrolls5k3k16k4k
9/6/2019Unemployment Rate3.70%3.70%3.70%
9/6/2019Average Hourly Earnings MoM0.30%0.40%0.30%
9/6/2019Average Hourly Earnings YoY3.00%3.20%3.20%3.30%
9/6/2019Average Weekly Hours All Employees34.434.434.3
9/6/2019Labor Force Participation Rate63.20%63.00%
9/6/2019Underemployment Rate7.20%7.00%

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

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