Treasury prices are unchanged to slightly higher with no real change in market tone today. Emerging markets concerns are still at the forefront, but there were no new headlines overnight. Asian equity markets struggled again (Hang Seng -0.99%, Shanghai -0.47%), but European markets and U.S. futures are modestly higher at the moment. Markets have been anticipating the announcement of a new round of tariffs against China (25% on $200 billion) this week, but the White House may be preoccupied with other matters. A stronger than expected jobs report tomorrow would likely drive the dollar higher and exacerbate current stresses in emerging market economies, but an undershoot on tomorrow’s data may provide some relief, at least in the very short term. San Francisco Fed President John Williams will speak on the regional and national economy in Buffalo this morning.
Jason Haley
Managing Director, Investment Management Group
| Date Time | Event | Survey | Actual | Prior | Revised |
| 09/04/2018 | Markit US Manufacturing PMI | 54.5 | 54.7 | 54.5 | — |
| 09/04/2018 | Construction Spending MoM | 0.40% | 0.10% | -1.10% | -0.80% |
| 09/04/2018 | ISM Manufacturing | 57.6 | 61.3 | 58.1 | — |
| 09/04/2018 | ISM Employment | — | 58.5 | 56.5 | — |
| 09/04/2018 | ISM Prices Paid | 69.5 | 72.1 | 73.2 | — |
| 09/04/2018 | ISM New Orders | — | 65.1 | 60.2 | — |
| 09/04/2018 | Wards Total Vehicle Sales | 16.80m | 16.60m | 16.68m | — |
| 09/05/2018 | MBA Mortgage Applications | — | -0.10% | -1.70% | — |
| 09/05/2018 | Trade Balance | -$50.2b | -$50.1b | -$46.3b | -$45.7b |
| 09/06/2018 | Challenger Job Cuts YoY | — | 13.70% | -4.20% | — |
| 09/06/2018 | ADP Employment Change | 200k | 163k | 219k | 217k |
| 09/06/2018 | Nonfarm Productivity | 3.00% | 2.90% | 2.90% | — |
| 09/06/2018 | Unit Labor Costs | -0.90% | -1.00% | -0.90% | — |
| 09/06/2018 | Initial Jobless Claims | 213k | 203k | 213k | — |
| 09/06/2018 | Continuing Claims | 1720k | 1707k | 1708k | 1710k |
| 09/06/2018 | Bloomberg Consumer Comfort | — | — | 58.3 | — |
| 09/06/2018 | Markit US Services PMI | 55.2 | — | 55.2 | — |
| 09/06/2018 | Markit US Composite PMI | — | — | 55 | — |
| 09/06/2018 | ISM Non-Manufacturing Index | 56.8 | — | 55.7 | — |
| 09/06/2018 | Factory Orders | -0.60% | — | 0.70% | — |
| 09/06/2018 | Factory Orders Ex Trans | — | — | 0.40% | — |
| 09/06/2018 | Durable Goods Orders | -1.70% | — | -1.70% | — |
| 09/06/2018 | Durables Ex Transportation | — | — | 0.20% | — |
| 09/06/2018 | Cap Goods Orders Nondef Ex Air | — | — | 1.40% | — |
| 09/06/2018 | Cap Goods Ship Nondef Ex Air | — | — | 0.90% | — |
| 09/07/2018 | Change in Nonfarm Payrolls | 195k | — | 157k | — |
| 09/07/2018 | Two-Month Payroll Net Revision | — | — | — | — |
| 09/07/2018 | Change in Private Payrolls | 194k | — | 170k | — |
| 09/07/2018 | Change in Manufact. Payrolls | 24k | — | 37k | — |
| 09/07/2018 | Unemployment Rate | 3.80% | — | 3.90% | — |
| 09/07/2018 | Underemployment Rate | — | — | 7.50% | — |
| 09/07/2018 | Average Hourly Earnings MoM | 0.20% | — | 0.30% | — |
| 09/07/2018 | Average Hourly Earnings YoY | 2.70% | — | 2.70% | — |
| 09/07/2018 | Average Weekly Hours All Employees | 34.5 | — | 34.5 | — |
| 09/07/2018 | Labor Force Participation Rate | — | — | 62.90% | — |