Treasury prices are unchanged to slightly higher with no real change in market tone today. Emerging markets concerns are still at the forefront, but there were no new headlines overnight. Asian equity markets struggled again (Hang Seng -0.99%, Shanghai -0.47%), but European markets and U.S. futures are modestly higher at the moment. Markets have been anticipating the announcement of a new round of tariffs against China (25% on $200 billion) this week, but the White House may be preoccupied with other matters. A stronger than expected jobs report tomorrow would likely drive the dollar higher and exacerbate current stresses in emerging market economies, but an undershoot on tomorrow’s data may provide some relief, at least in the very short term. San Francisco Fed President John Williams will speak on the regional and national economy in Buffalo this morning.

Jason Haley
Managing Director, Investment Management Group

Date TimeEventSurveyActualPriorRevised
09/04/2018Markit US Manufacturing PMI54.554.754.5
09/04/2018Construction Spending MoM0.40%0.10%-1.10%-0.80%
09/04/2018ISM Manufacturing57.661.358.1
09/04/2018ISM Employment58.556.5
09/04/2018ISM Prices Paid69.572.173.2
09/04/2018ISM New Orders65.160.2
09/04/2018Wards Total Vehicle Sales16.80m16.60m16.68m
09/05/2018MBA Mortgage Applications-0.10%-1.70%
09/05/2018Trade Balance-$50.2b-$50.1b-$46.3b-$45.7b
09/06/2018Challenger Job Cuts YoY13.70%-4.20%
09/06/2018ADP Employment Change200k163k219k217k
09/06/2018Nonfarm Productivity3.00%2.90%2.90%
09/06/2018Unit Labor Costs-0.90%-1.00%-0.90%
09/06/2018Initial Jobless Claims213k203k213k
09/06/2018Continuing Claims1720k1707k1708k1710k
09/06/2018Bloomberg Consumer Comfort58.3
09/06/2018Markit US Services PMI55.255.2
09/06/2018Markit US Composite PMI55
09/06/2018ISM Non-Manufacturing Index56.855.7
09/06/2018Factory Orders-0.60%0.70%
09/06/2018Factory Orders Ex Trans0.40%
09/06/2018Durable Goods Orders-1.70%-1.70%
09/06/2018Durables Ex Transportation0.20%
09/06/2018Cap Goods Orders Nondef Ex Air1.40%
09/06/2018Cap Goods Ship Nondef Ex Air0.90%
09/07/2018Change in Nonfarm Payrolls195k157k
09/07/2018Two-Month Payroll Net Revision
09/07/2018Change in Private Payrolls194k170k
09/07/2018Change in Manufact. Payrolls24k37k
09/07/2018Unemployment Rate3.80%3.90%
09/07/2018Underemployment Rate7.50%
09/07/2018Average Hourly Earnings MoM0.20%0.30%
09/07/2018Average Hourly Earnings YoY2.70%2.70%
09/07/2018Average Weekly Hours All Employees34.534.5
09/07/2018Labor Force Participation Rate62.90%