September 7, 2022 Headlines

Treasury yields turned modestly lower and the curve flatter overnight, and S&P 500 futures are down 22 bps a half hour before the open. Fed leaders have been unified in recent weeks on the need to continue raising the fed funds rate and to keep it elevated until there are clear signs of inflation subsiding (‘higher for longer’). Richmond Fed President Thomas Barkin added additional color to this perspective in an interview with the Financial Times. “The destination is real rates in positive territory and my intent would be to maintain them there until such time as we really are convinced that we put inflation to bed,” said Barkin. ‘Real rates’ refers to inflation-adjusted rates and, looking to the Treasury Inflation Protected Securities (TIPS) market, 5-year real yields have risen 250 basis points in 2022 to January 2019 levels. Loretta Mester (Cleveland Fed) and Vice Chair Brainard will be speaking today and Chair Powell tomorrow morning. All leaders are likely to continue to reinforce the Fed’s hawkish tone, particularly Powell.  

Jason Haley
Chief Investment Officer

9/7/2022MBA Mortgage Applications-0.80%-3.70%
9/7/2022Trade Balance-$70.2b-$70.7b-$79.6b-$80.9b
9/7/2022U.S. Federal Reserve Releases Beige Book
9/8/2022Initial Jobless Claims235k232k
9/8/2022Continuing Claims1438k1438k
9/8/2022Consumer Credit$32.000b$40.154b
9/9/2022Bloomberg Sept. United States Economic Survey
9/9/2022Wholesale Trade Sales MoM0.80%1.80%
9/9/2022Wholesale Inventories MoM0.80%0.80%
9/9/2022Household Change in Net Worth-$544b
9/13/2022NFIB Small Business Optimism90.589.9
9/13/2022CPI MoM-0.10%0.00%
9/13/2022CPI Ex Food and Energy MoM0.30%0.30%
9/13/2022CPI YoY8.10%8.50%
9/13/2022CPI Ex Food and Energy YoY6.10%5.90%
9/13/2022CPI Index NSA295.644296.276
9/13/2022CPI Core Index SA295.275
9/13/2022Real Avg Hourly Earning YoY-3.00%
9/13/2022Real Avg Weekly Earnings YoY-3.60%
9/13/2022Monthly Budget Statement-$211.1b
9/14/2022MBA Mortgage Applications-0.80%
9/14/2022PPI Ex Food and Energy YoY7.60%
9/14/2022PPI Final Demand MoM0.10%-0.50%
9/14/2022PPI Ex Food and Energy MoM0.30%0.20%
9/14/2022PPI Ex Food, Energy, Trade MoM0.20%
9/14/2022PPI Final Demand YoY9.80%
9/14/2022PPI Ex Food, Energy, Trade YoY5.80%

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