September 7, 2022 Headlines

Treasury yields turned modestly lower and the curve flatter overnight, and S&P 500 futures are down 22 bps a half hour before the open. Fed leaders have been unified in recent weeks on the need to continue raising the fed funds rate and to keep it elevated until there are clear signs of inflation subsiding (‘higher for longer’). Richmond Fed President Thomas Barkin added additional color to this perspective in an interview with the Financial Times. “The destination is real rates in positive territory and my intent would be to maintain them there until such time as we really are convinced that we put inflation to bed,” said Barkin. ‘Real rates’ refers to inflation-adjusted rates and, looking to the Treasury Inflation Protected Securities (TIPS) market, 5-year real yields have risen 250 basis points in 2022 to January 2019 levels. Loretta Mester (Cleveland Fed) and Vice Chair Brainard will be speaking today and Chair Powell tomorrow morning. All leaders are likely to continue to reinforce the Fed’s hawkish tone, particularly Powell.  

Jason Haley
Chief Investment Officer

Date Event Survey Actual Prior Revised
9/7/2022 MBA Mortgage Applications — -0.80% -3.70% —
9/7/2022 Trade Balance -$70.2b -$70.7b -$79.6b -$80.9b
9/7/2022 U.S. Federal Reserve Releases Beige Book
9/8/2022 Initial Jobless Claims 235k — 232k —
9/8/2022 Continuing Claims 1438k — 1438k —
9/8/2022 Consumer Credit $32.000b — $40.154b —
9/9/2022 Bloomberg Sept. United States Economic Survey
9/9/2022 Wholesale Trade Sales MoM 0.80% — 1.80% —
9/9/2022 Wholesale Inventories MoM 0.80% — 0.80% —
9/9/2022 Household Change in Net Worth — — -$544b —
9/13/2022 NFIB Small Business Optimism 90.5 — 89.9 —
9/13/2022 CPI MoM -0.10% — 0.00% —
9/13/2022 CPI Ex Food and Energy MoM 0.30% — 0.30% —
9/13/2022 CPI YoY 8.10% — 8.50% —
9/13/2022 CPI Ex Food and Energy YoY 6.10% — 5.90% —
9/13/2022 CPI Index NSA 295.644 — 296.276 —
9/13/2022 CPI Core Index SA — — 295.275 —
9/13/2022 Real Avg Hourly Earning YoY — — -3.00% —
9/13/2022 Real Avg Weekly Earnings YoY — — -3.60% —
9/13/2022 Monthly Budget Statement — — -$211.1b —
9/14/2022 MBA Mortgage Applications — — -0.80% —
9/14/2022 PPI Ex Food and Energy YoY — — 7.60% —
9/14/2022 PPI Final Demand MoM 0.10% — -0.50% —
9/14/2022 PPI Ex Food and Energy MoM 0.30% — 0.20% —
9/14/2022 PPI Ex Food, Energy, Trade MoM — — 0.20% —
9/14/2022 PPI Final Demand YoY — — 9.80% —
9/14/2022 PPI Ex Food, Energy, Trade YoY — — 5.80% —

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