September 7, 2023 Headlines

Better-than-expected economic data is feeding a slight sell-off in Treasury yields to start the day. Initial jobless claims fell to 216,000 last week (233,000 expected), the lowest since early February. Separately, the final revision of Q2 nonfarm productivity report revealed an upward revision to unit labor costs from 1.6% to 2.2%. A recently released paper by two Chicago Fed economists suggests that the policy tightening efforts to date will succeed in returning inflation to the Fed’s 2% target next year without triggering a recession. The analysis opines that roughly 2/3rds of the tightening has already filtered through economic growth and 75% through CPI. Fed funds futures are current pricing a near 100% probability of a September pause by the Fed and essentially a coin flip of one final 25 basis point hike in November. Six different Fed leaders will be speaking at separate events today.

Jason Haley
Chief Investment Officer

Date Event Survey Actual Prior Revised
9/7/2023 Nonfarm Productivity 3.40% 3.50% 3.70%
9/7/2023 Unit Labor Costs 1.90% 2.20% 1.60%
9/7/2023 Initial Jobless Claims 233k 216k 228k 229k
9/7/2023 Continuing Claims 1719k 1679k 1725k 1719k
9/8/2023 Wholesale Trade Sales MoM 0.20% -0.70%
9/8/2023 Wholesale Inventories MoM -0.10% -0.10%
9/8/2023 Household Change in Net Worth $3026b
9/8/2023 Consumer Credit $16.000b $17.847b
9/11/2023 1-Year Consumer Inflation Expectations 3.55%
9/12/2023 NFIB Small Business Optimism 91.3 91.9
9/13/2023 MBA Mortgage Applications -2.90%
9/13/2023 CPI MoM 0.50% 0.20%
9/13/2023 CPI Ex Food and Energy MoM 0.20% 0.20%
9/13/2023 CPI YoY 3.60% 3.20%
9/13/2023 CPI Ex Food and Energy YoY 4.30% 4.70%
9/13/2023 CPI Index NSA 307.248 305.691
9/13/2023 CPI Core Index SA 308.801
9/13/2023 Real Avg Hourly Earning YoY 1.10%
9/13/2023 Real Avg Weekly Earnings YoY 0.20%
9/13/2023 Monthly Budget Statement -$220.8b
9/14/2023 Retail Sales Advance MoM 0.20% 0.70%
9/14/2023 Retail Sales Ex Auto MoM 0.40% 1.00%
9/14/2023 Retail Sales Ex Auto and Gas 0.00% 1.00%
9/14/2023 PPI Final Demand MoM 0.40% 0.30%
9/14/2023 Initial Jobless Claims 216k
9/14/2023 Retail Sales Control Group -0.20% 1.00%
9/14/2023 PPI Ex Food and Energy MoM 0.20% 0.30%
9/14/2023 Continuing Claims 1679k
9/14/2023 PPI Ex Food, Energy, Trade MoM 0.20%
9/14/2023 PPI Final Demand YoY 0.80%
9/14/2023 PPI Ex Food and Energy YoY 2.20% 2.40%
9/14/2023 PPI Ex Food, Energy, Trade YoY 2.70%
9/14/2023 Business Inventories 0.10% 0.00%

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