Treasury yields are higher and equity prices lower following the August jobs, which showed higher than expected wage growth over the month. The 10-year yield is back above 2.90%, and S&P 500 futures are down 10 points. A Wall Street Journal article released earlier this morning suggests that a White House decision on more tariffs against China (25% on $200 billion of goods) may not come for weeks. There was much speculation in the markets that the decision would be made this week, but other issues within the administration have likely taken priority.
Nonfarm payrolls added 201,000 jobs in August, 11,000 more than expected, but the prior two months were revised down by a total of 50,000 jobs. However, the big takeaway from the establishment survey was the average hourly earnings data. Average wages jumped 0.4% in August (double expectations), and on a year-over-year basis, wage growth jumped 20 bps to 2.9%. This further cements a September rate hike and increases the likelihood of a December hike as well. The headline unemployment rate held unchanged at 3.9%, but the U-6 underemployment rate dipped 10 bps to 7.4% (new cycle low).
Jason Haley
Managing Director, Investment Management Group
| Date Time | Event | Survey | Actual | Prior | Revised |
| 09/04/2018 | Markit US Manufacturing PMI | 54.5 | 54.7 | 54.5 | — |
| 09/04/2018 | Construction Spending MoM | 0.40% | 0.10% | -1.10% | -0.80% |
| 09/04/2018 | ISM Manufacturing | 57.6 | 61.3 | 58.1 | — |
| 09/04/2018 | ISM Employment | — | 58.5 | 56.5 | — |
| 09/04/2018 | ISM Prices Paid | 69.5 | 72.1 | 73.2 | — |
| 09/04/2018 | ISM New Orders | — | 65.1 | 60.2 | — |
| 09/04/2018 | Wards Total Vehicle Sales | 16.80m | 16.60m | 16.68m | — |
| 09/05/2018 | MBA Mortgage Applications | — | -0.10% | -1.70% | — |
| 09/05/2018 | Trade Balance | -$50.2b | -$50.1b | -$46.3b | -$45.7b |
| 09/06/2018 | Challenger Job Cuts YoY | — | 13.70% | -4.20% | — |
| 09/06/2018 | ADP Employment Change | 200k | 163k | 219k | 217k |
| 09/06/2018 | Nonfarm Productivity | 3.00% | 2.90% | 2.90% | — |
| 09/06/2018 | Unit Labor Costs | -0.90% | -1.00% | -0.90% | — |
| 09/06/2018 | Initial Jobless Claims | 213k | 203k | 213k | — |
| 09/06/2018 | Continuing Claims | 1720k | 1707k | 1708k | 1710k |
| 09/06/2018 | Bloomberg Consumer Comfort | — | 58 | 58.3 | — |
| 09/06/2018 | Markit US Services PMI | 55.2 | 54.8 | 55.2 | — |
| 09/06/2018 | Markit US Composite PMI | — | 54.7 | 55 | — |
| 09/06/2018 | ISM Non-Manufacturing Index | 56.8 | 58.5 | 55.7 | — |
| 09/06/2018 | Factory Orders | -0.60% | -0.80% | 0.70% | 0.60% |
| 09/06/2018 | Factory Orders Ex Trans | — | 0.20% | 0.40% | — |
| 09/06/2018 | Durable Goods Orders | -1.70% | -1.70% | -1.70% | — |
| 09/06/2018 | Durables Ex Transportation | — | 0.10% | 0.20% | — |
| 09/06/2018 | Cap Goods Orders Nondef Ex Air | — | 1.60% | 1.40% | — |
| 09/06/2018 | Cap Goods Ship Nondef Ex Air | — | 1.00% | 0.90% | — |
| 09/07/2018 | Change in Nonfarm Payrolls | 190k | 201k | 157k | 147k |
| 09/07/2018 | Two-Month Payroll Net Revision | — | -50k | — | — |
| 09/07/2018 | Change in Private Payrolls | 194k | 204k | 170k | 153k |
| 09/07/2018 | Change in Manufact. Payrolls | 23k | -3k | 37k | 18k |
| 09/07/2018 | Unemployment Rate | 3.80% | 3.90% | 3.90% | — |
| 09/07/2018 | Underemployment Rate | — | 7.40% | 7.50% | — |
| 09/07/2018 | Average Hourly Earnings MoM | 0.20% | 0.40% | 0.30% | — |
| 09/07/2018 | Average Hourly Earnings YoY | 2.70% | 2.90% | 2.70% | — |
| 09/07/2018 | Average Weekly Hours All Employees | 34.5 | 34.5 | 34.5 | — |
| 09/07/2018 | Labor Force Participation Rate | — | 62.70% | 62.90% | — |