Treasury prices are slightly lower this morning following yesterday’s rally that pushed the 10-year yield down 7 bps to a new YTD low of 2.01% (currently 2.05%).  Yesterday’s move in fixed income was largely attributable to ECB President Mario Draghi’s dovish comments following the ECB’s policy decision. Draghi expressed concern that the surge in the euro’s value in anticipation of a reduction in QE could negatively affect price stability.  However, a Reuters article released overnight said that ECB policymakers actually agreed yesterday to reduce bond purchases at the next meeting in October according to ECB sources, which is the main reason for this morning’s bounce in Treasury yields.  Fed Vice Chair Bill Dudley also spoke yesterday and refrained from repeating his recent assertion that he expects another rate hike in 2017.  Interestingly, Dudley also said that he’s “not ready to throw the Phillips Curve out the window,” but he did admit to being “a little bit agnostic about whether full employment” is where they think it is.  For the many critics of the Phillips Curve and its usefulness in forecasting inflation, this is at least a step in the right direction.

Jason Haley
Managing Director, Investment Management Group


Date  TimeEventSurveyActualPriorRevised
09/08/2017 10:00Wholesale Inventories MoMJul F0.40%0.40%
09/08/2017 10:00Wholesale Trade Sales MoMJul0.50%0.70%
09/08/2017 15:00Consumer CreditJul$15.000b$12.397b
09/12/2017 06:00NFIB Small Business OptimismAug104.9105.2
09/12/2017 10:00JOLTS Job OpeningsJul59506163
09/13/2017 07:00MBA Mortgage Applications8-Sep3.30%
09/13/2017 08:30PPI Final Demand MoMAug0.30%-0.10%
09/13/2017 08:30PPI Ex Food and Energy MoMAug0.20%-0.10%
09/13/2017 08:30PPI Ex Food, Energy, Trade MoMAug0.00%
09/13/2017 08:30PPI Final Demand YoYAug2.50%1.90%
09/13/2017 08:30PPI Ex Food and Energy YoYAug2.10%1.80%
09/13/2017 08:30PPI Ex Food, Energy, Trade YoYAug1.90%
09/13/2017 14:00Monthly Budget StatementAug-$124.0b-$42.9b
09/14/2017 08:30Initial Jobless Claims9-Sep300k298k
09/14/2017 08:30CPI MoMAug0.30%0.10%
09/14/2017 08:30Continuing Claims2-Sep1980k1940k
09/14/2017 08:30CPI Ex Food and Energy MoMAug0.20%0.10%
09/14/2017 08:30CPI YoYAug1.80%1.70%
09/14/2017 08:30CPI Ex Food and Energy YoYAug1.60%1.70%
09/14/2017 08:30CPI Core Index SAAug251.914
09/14/2017 08:30CPI Index NSAAug245.336244.786
09/14/2017 08:30Real Avg Weekly Earnings YoYAug1.10%
09/14/2017 08:30Real Avg Hourly Earning YoYAug0.70%
09/14/2017 09:45Bloomberg Consumer Comfort10-Sep52.6
09/15/2017 08:30Empire ManufacturingSep1825.2
09/15/2017 08:30Retail Sales Advance MoMAug0.10%0.60%
09/15/2017 08:30Retail Sales Ex Auto MoMAug0.50%0.50%
09/15/2017 08:30Retail Sales Ex Auto and GasAug0.30%0.50%
09/15/2017 08:30Retail Sales Control GroupAug0.30%0.60%
09/15/2017 09:15Industrial Production MoMAug0.10%0.20%
09/15/2017 09:15Capacity UtilizationAug76.80%76.70%
09/15/2017 09:15Manufacturing (SIC) ProductionAug0.50%-0.10%
09/15/2017 10:00U. of Mich. SentimentSep P95.296.8
09/15/2017 10:00U. of Mich. Current ConditionsSep P110.9
09/15/2017 10:00U. of Mich. ExpectationsSep P87.7
09/15/2017 10:00U. of Mich. 1 Yr InflationSep P2.60%
09/15/2017 10:00U. of Mich. 5-10 Yr InflationSep P2.50%
09/15/2017 10:00Business InventoriesJul0.20%0.50%