Treasury prices are slightly lower this morning following yesterday’s rally that pushed the 10-year yield down 7 bps to a new YTD low of 2.01% (currently 2.05%). Yesterday’s move in fixed income was largely attributable to ECB President Mario Draghi’s dovish comments following the ECB’s policy decision. Draghi expressed concern that the surge in the euro’s value in anticipation of a reduction in QE could negatively affect price stability. However, a Reuters article released overnight said that ECB policymakers actually agreed yesterday to reduce bond purchases at the next meeting in October according to ECB sources, which is the main reason for this morning’s bounce in Treasury yields. Fed Vice Chair Bill Dudley also spoke yesterday and refrained from repeating his recent assertion that he expects another rate hike in 2017. Interestingly, Dudley also said that he’s “not ready to throw the Phillips Curve out the window,” but he did admit to being “a little bit agnostic about whether full employment” is where they think it is. For the many critics of the Phillips Curve and its usefulness in forecasting inflation, this is at least a step in the right direction.
Jason Haley
Managing Director, Investment Management Group
| Date Time | Event | Survey | Actual | Prior | Revised | |
| 09/08/2017 10:00 | Wholesale Inventories MoM | Jul F | 0.40% | — | 0.40% | — |
| 09/08/2017 10:00 | Wholesale Trade Sales MoM | Jul | 0.50% | — | 0.70% | — |
| 09/08/2017 15:00 | Consumer Credit | Jul | $15.000b | — | $12.397b | — |
| 09/12/2017 06:00 | NFIB Small Business Optimism | Aug | 104.9 | — | 105.2 | — |
| 09/12/2017 10:00 | JOLTS Job Openings | Jul | 5950 | — | 6163 | — |
| 09/13/2017 07:00 | MBA Mortgage Applications | 8-Sep | — | — | 3.30% | — |
| 09/13/2017 08:30 | PPI Final Demand MoM | Aug | 0.30% | — | -0.10% | — |
| 09/13/2017 08:30 | PPI Ex Food and Energy MoM | Aug | 0.20% | — | -0.10% | — |
| 09/13/2017 08:30 | PPI Ex Food, Energy, Trade MoM | Aug | — | — | 0.00% | — |
| 09/13/2017 08:30 | PPI Final Demand YoY | Aug | 2.50% | — | 1.90% | — |
| 09/13/2017 08:30 | PPI Ex Food and Energy YoY | Aug | 2.10% | — | 1.80% | — |
| 09/13/2017 08:30 | PPI Ex Food, Energy, Trade YoY | Aug | — | — | 1.90% | — |
| 09/13/2017 14:00 | Monthly Budget Statement | Aug | -$124.0b | — | -$42.9b | — |
| 09/14/2017 08:30 | Initial Jobless Claims | 9-Sep | 300k | — | 298k | — |
| 09/14/2017 08:30 | CPI MoM | Aug | 0.30% | — | 0.10% | — |
| 09/14/2017 08:30 | Continuing Claims | 2-Sep | 1980k | — | 1940k | — |
| 09/14/2017 08:30 | CPI Ex Food and Energy MoM | Aug | 0.20% | — | 0.10% | — |
| 09/14/2017 08:30 | CPI YoY | Aug | 1.80% | — | 1.70% | — |
| 09/14/2017 08:30 | CPI Ex Food and Energy YoY | Aug | 1.60% | — | 1.70% | — |
| 09/14/2017 08:30 | CPI Core Index SA | Aug | — | — | 251.914 | — |
| 09/14/2017 08:30 | CPI Index NSA | Aug | 245.336 | — | 244.786 | — |
| 09/14/2017 08:30 | Real Avg Weekly Earnings YoY | Aug | — | — | 1.10% | — |
| 09/14/2017 08:30 | Real Avg Hourly Earning YoY | Aug | — | — | 0.70% | — |
| 09/14/2017 09:45 | Bloomberg Consumer Comfort | 10-Sep | — | — | 52.6 | — |
| 09/15/2017 08:30 | Empire Manufacturing | Sep | 18 | — | 25.2 | — |
| 09/15/2017 08:30 | Retail Sales Advance MoM | Aug | 0.10% | — | 0.60% | — |
| 09/15/2017 08:30 | Retail Sales Ex Auto MoM | Aug | 0.50% | — | 0.50% | — |
| 09/15/2017 08:30 | Retail Sales Ex Auto and Gas | Aug | 0.30% | — | 0.50% | — |
| 09/15/2017 08:30 | Retail Sales Control Group | Aug | 0.30% | — | 0.60% | — |
| 09/15/2017 09:15 | Industrial Production MoM | Aug | 0.10% | — | 0.20% | — |
| 09/15/2017 09:15 | Capacity Utilization | Aug | 76.80% | — | 76.70% | — |
| 09/15/2017 09:15 | Manufacturing (SIC) Production | Aug | 0.50% | — | -0.10% | — |
| 09/15/2017 10:00 | U. of Mich. Sentiment | Sep P | 95.2 | — | 96.8 | — |
| 09/15/2017 10:00 | U. of Mich. Current Conditions | Sep P | — | — | 110.9 | — |
| 09/15/2017 10:00 | U. of Mich. Expectations | Sep P | — | — | 87.7 | — |
| 09/15/2017 10:00 | U. of Mich. 1 Yr Inflation | Sep P | — | — | 2.60% | — |
| 09/15/2017 10:00 | U. of Mich. 5-10 Yr Inflation | Sep P | — | — | 2.50% | — |
| 09/15/2017 10:00 | Business Inventories | Jul | 0.20% | — | 0.50% | — |