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Treasury prices are drifting lower this morning, largely offsetting yesterday’s post-FOMC minutes rally. Major equity indexes are mostly lower today (Hang Seng -0.24%, Nikkei -0.14%, Euro Stoxx -0.28%), and S&P 500 futures are down 5 points at the moment. The minutes of the July 26 FOMC meeting were largely perceived to have a more dovish bias, but what was revealed was not overly surprising from our perspective based on recent public comments from Fed leaders. The “participants generally agreed” that balance sheet reduction should begin soon. Regarding the inflation trend, there appears to be growing concerns among participants that the recent weakness is transitory. More specifically, “many” participants saw a higher probability that inflation “might remain below 2% for longer than they currently expected.”
Jason Haley
Managing Director, Investment Management Group
Indicators
| Date | Time | Event | Survey | Actual | Prior | Revised | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 08/15/2017 | 08:30 | Import Price Index MoM | Jul | 0.10% | 0.10% | -0.20% | — |
| 08/15/2017 | 08:30 | Import Price Index ex Petroleum MoM | Jul | 0.10% | 0.00% | 0.10% | — |
| 08/15/2017 | 08:30 | Import Price Index YoY | Jul | 1.50% | 1.50% | 1.50% | — |
| 08/15/2017 | 08:30 | Export Price Index MoM | Jul | 0.20% | 0.40% | -0.20% | — |
| 08/15/2017 | 08:30 | Export Price Index YoY | Jul | — | 0.80% | 0.60% | — |
| 08/15/2017 | 08:30 | Empire Manufacturing | Aug | 10 | 25.2 | 9.8 | — |
| 08/15/2017 | 08:30 | Retail Sales Advance MoM | Jul | 0.30% | 0.60% | -0.20% | 0.30% |
| 08/15/2017 | 08:30 | Retail Sales Ex Auto MoM | Jul | 0.30% | 0.50% | -0.20% | 0.10% |
| 08/15/2017 | 08:30 | Retail Sales Ex Auto and Gas | Jul | 0.40% | 0.50% | -0.10% | 0.30% |
| 08/15/2017 | 08:30 | Retail Sales Control Group | Jul | 0.40% | 0.60% | -0.10% | 0.10% |
| 08/15/2017 | 10:00 | NAHB Housing Market Index | Aug | 64 | 68 | 64 | — |
| 08/15/2017 | 10:00 | Business Inventories | Jun | 0.40% | 0.50% | 0.30% | — |
| 08/15/2017 | 16:00 | Total Net TIC Flows | Jun | — | $7.7b | $57.3b | $54.7b |
| 08/15/2017 | 16:00 | Net Long-term TIC Flows | Jun | — | $34.4b | $91.9b | — |
| 08/16/2017 | 07:00 | MBA Mortgage Applications | 11-Aug | — | 0.10% | 3.00% | — |
| 08/16/2017 | 08:30 | Housing Starts | Jul | 1220k | 1155k | 1215k | 1213k |
| 08/16/2017 | 08:30 | Housing Starts MoM | Jul | 0.40% | -4.80% | 8.30% | 7.40% |
| 08/16/2017 | 08:30 | Building Permits | Jul | 1250k | 1223k | 1254k | 1275k |
| 08/16/2017 | 08:30 | Building Permits MoM | Jul | -2.00% | -4.10% | 7.40% | 9.20% |
| 08/16/2017 | 14:00 | FOMC Meeting Minutes | 26-Jul | — | — | — | — |
| 08/17/2017 | 08:30 | Initial Jobless Claims | 12-Aug | 240k | 232k | 244k | — |
| 08/17/2017 | 08:30 | Continuing Claims | 05-Aug | 1955k | 1953k | 1951k | 1956k |
| 08/17/2017 | 08:30 | Philadelphia Fed Business Outlook | Aug | 18 | 18.9 | 19.5 | — |
| 08/17/2017 | 08:51 | Industrial Production MoM | Jul | 0.30% | 0.20% | 0.40% | — |
| 08/17/2017 | 08:51 | Capacity Utilization | Jul | 76.70% | 76.70% | 76.60% | 76.70% |
| 08/17/2017 | 08:51 | Manufacturing (SIC) Production | Jul | 0.20% | -0.10% | 0.20% | — |
| 08/17/2017 | 09:45 | Bloomberg Consumer Comfort | 13-Aug | — | 52.1 | 51.4 | — |
| 08/17/2017 | 09:45 | Bloomberg Economic Expectations | Aug | — | 54 | 47 | — |
| 08/17/2017 | 10:00 | Leading Index | Jul | 0.30% | 0.30% | 0.60% | — |
| 08/18/2017 | 10:00 | U. of Mich. Sentiment | Aug P | 94 | — | 93.4 | — |
| 08/18/2017 | 10:00 | U. of Mich. Current Conditions | Aug P | 112.9 | — | 113.4 | — |
| 08/18/2017 | 10:00 | U. of Mich. Expectations | Aug P | 81.5 | — | 80.5 | — |
| 08/18/2017 | 10:00 | U. of Mich. 1 Yr Inflation | Aug P | — | — | 2.60% | — |
| 08/18/2017 | 10:00 | U. of Mich. 5-10 Yr Inflation | Aug P | — | — | 2.60% | — |
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