Yield buyers emerged overnight following yesterday’s CPI-driven sell-off in Treasuries. Equity markets are also looking to rebound from this week’s declines which have sent the S&P 500 down nearly 4% and NASDAQ down more than 5%. Yesterday’s CPI report further fueled arguments from inflation hawks that sustained, upward price pressures are imminent, but the doves, including Fed leadership, are sticking to the transitory argument for now, saying much of yesterday’s historic surge in core prices was driven by supply chain bottlenecks. As we’ve noted over the last several weeks, Powell & Co. will be challenged by financial markets to maintain this position if we see many more inflation reports like yesterday, regardless of whether they are correct in their opinion.
Jason Haley
Chief Investment Officer
Date | Event | Survey | Actual | Prior | Revised |
5/13/2021 | PPI Final Demand MoM | 0.30% | 0.60% | 1.00% | — |
5/13/2021 | PPI Ex Food and Energy MoM | 0.40% | 0.70% | 0.70% | — |
5/13/2021 | PPI Ex Food, Energy, Trade MoM | 0.30% | 0.70% | 0.60% | — |
5/13/2021 | PPI Final Demand YoY | 5.80% | 6.20% | 4.20% | — |
5/13/2021 | PPI Ex Food and Energy YoY | 3.80% | 4.10% | 3.10% | — |
5/13/2021 | PPI Ex Food, Energy, Trade YoY | 4.30% | 4.60% | 3.10% | — |
5/13/2021 | Initial Jobless Claims | 490k | 473k | 498k | 507k |
5/13/2021 | Continuing Claims | 3650k | 3655k | 3690k | 3700k |
5/13/2021 | Langer Consumer Comfort | — | — | 54.4 | — |
5/14/2021 | Retail Sales Advance MoM | 1.00% | — | 9.80% | 9.70% |
5/14/2021 | Retail Sales Ex Auto MoM | 0.70% | — | 8.40% | — |
5/14/2021 | Retail Sales Ex Auto and Gas | 0.30% | — | 8.20% | — |
5/14/2021 | Retail Sales Control Group | -0.40% | — | 6.90% | — |
5/14/2021 | Import Price Index MoM | 0.60% | — | 1.20% | — |
5/14/2021 | Import Price Index ex Petroleum MoM | 0.50% | — | 0.90% | — |
5/14/2021 | Import Price Index YoY | 10.20% | — | 6.90% | — |
5/14/2021 | Export Price Index MoM | 0.80% | — | 2.10% | — |
5/14/2021 | Export Price Index YoY | 14.00% | — | 9.10% | — |
5/14/2021 | Bloomberg May United States Economic Survey | ||||
5/14/2021 | Industrial Production MoM | 1.00% | — | 1.40% | — |
5/14/2021 | Capacity Utilization | 75.00% | — | 74.40% | — |
5/14/2021 | Manufacturing (SIC) Production | 0.20% | — | 2.70% | — |
5/14/2021 | Business Inventories | 0.30% | — | 0.50% | — |
5/14/2021 | U. of Mich. Sentiment | 90.2 | — | 88.3 | — |
5/14/2021 | U. of Mich. Current Conditions | 100 | — | 97.2 | — |
5/14/2021 | U. of Mich. Expectations | 84.8 | — | 82.7 | — |
5/14/2021 | U. of Mich. 1 Yr Inflation | 3.50% | — | 3.40% | — |
5/14/2021 | U. of Mich. 5-10 Yr Inflation | — | — | 2.70% | — |
5/14/2021 | Revisions: Manufacturers’ Shipments, Orders, Inventories |
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