April 14, 2021 Headlines

Treasury yields are slightly higher in the belly and long-end of the curve this morning. Equity futures are up a little as the markets digest corporate earnings. The MBA Mortgage Applications Index fell 3.7% last week after falling 5.1% the week prior. Purchases were down 1.4% while refis declined by 5.0%. The average rate for a 30-year fixed loan was 3.27% down 9 bps from the prior week. Year-to-date, the average 30-year rate has gone up by 41 bps which has pushed a good chunk of the mortgage universe out of the refi window. Higher coupons remain refinanceable and the question with these loans is whether speeds will pick up as borrowers rush to lock in lower note rates or if a fading media effect will put a damper on speeds.

Hafizan Hamzah
Director, Investment Management Group

Date Event Surv(M) Actual Prior Revised
04/12/21 Monthly Budget Statement -$658.0b -$659.6b -$119.1b
04/13/21 NFIB Small Business Optimism 98.5 98.2 95.8
04/13/21 CPI MoM 0.50% 0.60% 0.40%
04/13/21 CPI Ex Food and Energy MoM 0.20% 0.30% 0.10%
04/13/21 CPI YoY 2.50% 2.60% 1.70%
04/13/21 CPI Ex Food and Energy YoY 1.50% 1.60% 1.30%
04/13/21 CPI Index NSA 264.7 264.877 263.014
04/13/21 CPI Core Index SA 270.97 271.214 270.299
04/13/21 Real Avg Weekly Earnings YoY 3.90% 4.10%
04/13/21 Real Avg Hourly Earning YoY 1.50% 3.40%
04/14/21 MBA Mortgage Applications -3.70% -5.10%
04/14/21 Import Price Index MoM 0.90% 1.20% 1.30%
04/14/21 Import Price Index ex Petroleum MoM 0.40% 0.90% 0.50%
04/14/21 Import Price Index YoY 6.40% 6.90% 3.00% 3.10%
04/14/21 Export Price Index MoM 1.00% 2.10% 1.60%
04/14/21 Export Price Index YoY 9.10% 5.20% 5.30%
04/14/21 U.S. Federal Reserve Releases Beige Book
04/15/21 Empire Manufacturing 19.2 17.4
04/15/21 Initial Jobless Claims 700k 744k
04/15/21 Continuing Claims 3700k 3734k
04/15/21 Retail Sales Advance MoM 5.80% -3.00%
04/15/21 Retail Sales Ex Auto MoM 5.00% -2.70%
04/15/21 Retail Sales Ex Auto and Gas 6.40% -3.30%
04/15/21 Retail Sales Control Group 7.20% -3.50%
04/15/21 Philadelphia Fed Business Outlook 40.9 51.8
04/15/21 Industrial Production MoM 2.50% -2.20%
04/15/21 Capacity Utilization 75.60% 73.80%
04/15/21 Manufacturing (SIC) Production 3.60% -3.10%
04/15/21 Langer Consumer Comfort 51.9
04/15/21 Business Inventories 0.50% 0.30%
04/15/21 NAHB Housing Market Index 84 82
04/15/21 Total Net TIC Flows $106.3b
04/15/21 Net Long-term TIC Flows $90.8b
04/16/21 Building Permits MoM 1.70% -10.80% -8.80%
04/16/21 Building Permits 1750k 1682k 1720k
04/16/21 Housing Starts 1611k 1421k
04/16/21 Housing Starts MoM 13.40% -10.30%
04/16/21 U. of Mich. Sentiment 89 84.9
04/16/21 U. of Mich. Current Conditions 96 93
04/16/21 U. of Mich. Expectations 85 79.7
04/16/21 U. of Mich. 1 Yr Inflation 3.30% 3.10%
04/16/21 U. of Mich. 5-10 Yr Inflation 2.80%

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