Treasury yields are slightly higher in the belly and long-end of the curve this morning. Equity futures are up a little as the markets digest corporate earnings. The MBA Mortgage Applications Index fell 3.7% last week after falling 5.1% the week prior. Purchases were down 1.4% while refis declined by 5.0%. The average rate for a 30-year fixed loan was 3.27% down 9 bps from the prior week. Year-to-date, the average 30-year rate has gone up by 41 bps which has pushed a good chunk of the mortgage universe out of the refi window. Higher coupons remain refinanceable and the question with these loans is whether speeds will pick up as borrowers rush to lock in lower note rates or if a fading media effect will put a damper on speeds.
Hafizan Hamzah
Director, Investment Management Group
Date | Event | Surv(M) | Actual | Prior | Revised |
04/12/21 | Monthly Budget Statement | -$658.0b | -$659.6b | -$119.1b | — |
04/13/21 | NFIB Small Business Optimism | 98.5 | 98.2 | 95.8 | — |
04/13/21 | CPI MoM | 0.50% | 0.60% | 0.40% | — |
04/13/21 | CPI Ex Food and Energy MoM | 0.20% | 0.30% | 0.10% | — |
04/13/21 | CPI YoY | 2.50% | 2.60% | 1.70% | — |
04/13/21 | CPI Ex Food and Energy YoY | 1.50% | 1.60% | 1.30% | — |
04/13/21 | CPI Index NSA | 264.7 | 264.877 | 263.014 | — |
04/13/21 | CPI Core Index SA | 270.97 | 271.214 | 270.299 | — |
04/13/21 | Real Avg Weekly Earnings YoY | — | 3.90% | 4.10% | — |
04/13/21 | Real Avg Hourly Earning YoY | — | 1.50% | 3.40% | — |
04/14/21 | MBA Mortgage Applications | — | -3.70% | -5.10% | — |
04/14/21 | Import Price Index MoM | 0.90% | 1.20% | 1.30% | — |
04/14/21 | Import Price Index ex Petroleum MoM | 0.40% | 0.90% | 0.50% | — |
04/14/21 | Import Price Index YoY | 6.40% | 6.90% | 3.00% | 3.10% |
04/14/21 | Export Price Index MoM | 1.00% | 2.10% | 1.60% | — |
04/14/21 | Export Price Index YoY | — | 9.10% | 5.20% | 5.30% |
04/14/21 | U.S. Federal Reserve Releases Beige Book | ||||
04/15/21 | Empire Manufacturing | 19.2 | — | 17.4 | — |
04/15/21 | Initial Jobless Claims | 700k | — | 744k | — |
04/15/21 | Continuing Claims | 3700k | — | 3734k | — |
04/15/21 | Retail Sales Advance MoM | 5.80% | — | -3.00% | — |
04/15/21 | Retail Sales Ex Auto MoM | 5.00% | — | -2.70% | — |
04/15/21 | Retail Sales Ex Auto and Gas | 6.40% | — | -3.30% | — |
04/15/21 | Retail Sales Control Group | 7.20% | — | -3.50% | — |
04/15/21 | Philadelphia Fed Business Outlook | 40.9 | — | 51.8 | — |
04/15/21 | Industrial Production MoM | 2.50% | — | -2.20% | — |
04/15/21 | Capacity Utilization | 75.60% | — | 73.80% | — |
04/15/21 | Manufacturing (SIC) Production | 3.60% | — | -3.10% | — |
04/15/21 | Langer Consumer Comfort | — | — | 51.9 | — |
04/15/21 | Business Inventories | 0.50% | — | 0.30% | — |
04/15/21 | NAHB Housing Market Index | 84 | — | 82 | — |
04/15/21 | Total Net TIC Flows | — | — | $106.3b | — |
04/15/21 | Net Long-term TIC Flows | — | — | $90.8b | — |
04/16/21 | Building Permits MoM | 1.70% | — | -10.80% | -8.80% |
04/16/21 | Building Permits | 1750k | — | 1682k | 1720k |
04/16/21 | Housing Starts | 1611k | — | 1421k | — |
04/16/21 | Housing Starts MoM | 13.40% | — | -10.30% | — |
04/16/21 | U. of Mich. Sentiment | 89 | — | 84.9 | — |
04/16/21 | U. of Mich. Current Conditions | 96 | — | 93 | — |
04/16/21 | U. of Mich. Expectations | 85 | — | 79.7 | — |
04/16/21 | U. of Mich. 1 Yr Inflation | 3.30% | — | 3.10% | — |
04/16/21 | U. of Mich. 5-10 Yr Inflation | — | — | 2.80% | — |
Subscribe Today!
Subscribe to our email list and get the latest articles and announcements from ALM First.