April 15, 2024 Headlines

Markets are reversing much of Friday’s risk-off trade on speculation (hope) that a broader Middle East war can be avoided. Treasury yields are 5-6 basis points lower, oil prices are down nearly 1%, and S&P 500 futures are up more than 0.5% as of 8:15am EDT. This week’s economic calendar is relatively light, headlined by the March retail sales report later this morning. Several Fed leaders will speak this week, including three separate appearances today (Logan, Williams, and Daly).

A Reuters article last week highlighted a source of stubborn consumer inflation pressure via car insurance premiums, which were up 22.2% year-over-year in March according to Labor Department data. That is the biggest annual increase since the 1970s. The rise in care insurance costs comes despite declines in new and used car prices over the same timeframe. According to Kelley Blue Book, the cost of insurance for compact cars, for example, will grow to 26% in 2024 compared to 16% in 2019.

Jason Haley
Chief Investment Officer

Date Event Survey Actual Prior Revised
4/15/2024 Empire Manufacturing -5.2 -14.3 -20.9 —
4/15/2024 Retail Sales Advance MoM 0.40% 0.70% 0.60% 0.90%
4/15/2024 Retail Sales Ex Auto MoM 0.50% 1.10% 0.30% 0.60%
4/15/2024 Retail Sales Ex Auto and Gas 0.30% 1.00% 0.30% 0.50%
4/15/2024 Retail Sales Control Group 0.40% 1.10% 0.00% 0.30%
4/15/2024 Business Inventories 0.40% — 0.00% —
4/15/2024 NAHB Housing Market Index 51 — 51 —
4/16/2024 Housing Starts 1480k — 1521k —
4/16/2024 Building Permits 1510k — 1518k 1524k
4/16/2024 Housing Starts MoM -2.70% — 10.70% —
4/16/2024 Building Permits MoM -0.90% — 1.90% 2.40%
4/16/2024 New York Fed Services Business Activity — — 0.6 —
4/16/2024 Industrial Production MoM 0.40% — 0.10% —
4/16/2024 Capacity Utilization 78.50% — 78.30% —
4/16/2024 Manufacturing (SIC) Production 0.20% — 0.80% —
4/17/2024 MBA Mortgage Applications — — 0.10% —
4/17/2024 Federal Reserve Releases Beige Book
4/17/2024 Total Net TIC Flows — — -$8.8b —
4/17/2024 Net Long-term TIC Flows — — $36.1b —
4/18/2024 Philadelphia Fed Business Outlook 2.5 — 3.2 —
4/18/2024 Initial Jobless Claims 215k — 211k —
4/18/2024 Continuing Claims 1822k — 1817k —
4/18/2024 Leading Index -0.10% — 0.10% —
4/18/2024 Existing Home Sales 4.20m — 4.38m —
4/18/2024 Existing Home Sales MoM -4.10% — 9.50% —
4/19/2024 Bloomberg April United States Economic Survey
4/22/2024 Chicago Fed Nat Activity Index — — 0.05 —

 

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