Yesterday’s Treasury market rally continued in the overnight session, and market participants still aren’t very sure of what sparked yesterday’s curve flattening, particularly considering the strong economic data that was released. The most common explanation from traders was that it was a short covering episode, but most of those responses were followed with a question mark. There have been some reality checks of late related to Covid, specifically on the vaccine front. In addition to the J&J vaccine being temporarily shelved, Pfizer’s CEO said yesterday that people will probably need a third booster shot within 12 months, as well as an annual vaccination going forward, in order to keep the virus under control. On the data front, housing starts rose 19.4% in March to a 1.739 million annual pace, well above expectations. Single-family starts were up 15.3% m/m, and multifamily starts rose 30.8% versus the prior month.
Jason Haley
Chief Investment Officer
Date | Event | Surv(M) | Actual | Prior | Revised |
04/12/21 | Monthly Budget Statement | -$658.0b | -$659.6b | -$119.1b | — |
04/13/21 | NFIB Small Business Optimism | 98.5 | 98.2 | 95.8 | — |
04/13/21 | CPI MoM | 0.50% | 0.60% | 0.40% | — |
04/13/21 | CPI Ex Food and Energy MoM | 0.20% | 0.30% | 0.10% | — |
04/13/21 | CPI YoY | 2.50% | 2.60% | 1.70% | — |
04/13/21 | CPI Ex Food and Energy YoY | 1.50% | 1.60% | 1.30% | — |
04/13/21 | CPI Index NSA | 264.7 | 264.877 | 263.014 | — |
04/13/21 | CPI Core Index SA | 270.97 | 271.214 | 270.299 | — |
04/13/21 | Real Avg Weekly Earnings YoY | — | 3.90% | 4.10% | — |
04/13/21 | Real Avg Hourly Earning YoY | — | 1.50% | 3.40% | — |
04/14/21 | MBA Mortgage Applications | — | -3.70% | -5.10% | — |
04/14/21 | Import Price Index MoM | 0.90% | 1.20% | 1.30% | — |
04/14/21 | Import Price Index ex Petroleum MoM | 0.40% | 0.90% | 0.50% | — |
04/14/21 | Import Price Index YoY | 6.40% | 6.90% | 3.00% | 3.10% |
04/14/21 | Export Price Index MoM | 1.00% | 2.10% | 1.60% | — |
04/14/21 | Export Price Index YoY | — | 9.10% | 5.20% | 5.30% |
04/14/21 | U.S. Federal Reserve Releases Beige Book | ||||
04/15/21 | Empire Manufacturing | 20 | 26.3 | 17.4 | — |
04/15/21 | Initial Jobless Claims | 700k | 576k | 744k | 769k |
04/15/21 | Continuing Claims | 3700k | 3731k | 3734k | 3727k |
04/15/21 | Retail Sales Advance MoM | 5.80% | 9.80% | -3.00% | -2.70% |
04/15/21 | Retail Sales Ex Auto MoM | 5.00% | 8.40% | -2.70% | -2.50% |
04/15/21 | Retail Sales Ex Auto and Gas | 6.40% | 8.20% | -3.30% | -3.10% |
04/15/21 | Retail Sales Control Group | 7.20% | 6.90% | -3.50% | -3.40% |
04/15/21 | Philadelphia Fed Business Outlook | 41.5 | 50.2 | 51.8 | 44.5 |
04/15/21 | Industrial Production MoM | 2.50% | 1.40% | -2.20% | -2.60% |
04/15/21 | Capacity Utilization | 75.60% | 74.40% | 73.80% | 73.40% |
04/15/21 | Manufacturing (SIC) Production | 3.60% | 2.70% | -3.10% | -3.70% |
04/15/21 | Langer Consumer Comfort | — | 53.9 | 51.9 | — |
04/15/21 | Business Inventories | 0.50% | 0.50% | 0.30% | 0.40% |
04/15/21 | NAHB Housing Market Index | 83 | 83 | 82 | — |
04/15/21 | Total Net TIC Flows | — | $72.6b | $106.3b | $105.8b |
04/15/21 | Net Long-term TIC Flows | — | $4.2b | $90.8b | $91.0b |
04/16/21 | Housing Starts | 1613k | 1739k | 1421k | 1457k |
04/16/21 | Housing Starts MoM | 13.50% | 19.40% | -10.30% | -11.30% |
04/16/21 | Building Permits | 1750k | 1766k | 1682k | 1720k |
04/16/21 | Building Permits MoM | 1.70% | 2.70% | -10.80% | -8.80% |
04/16/21 | U. of Mich. Sentiment | 89 | — | 84.9 | — |
04/16/21 | U. of Mich. Current Conditions | 96 | — | 93 | — |
04/16/21 | U. of Mich. Expectations | 85 | — | 79.7 | — |
04/16/21 | U. of Mich. 1 Yr Inflation | 3.30% | — | 3.10% | — |
04/16/21 | U. of Mich. 5-10 Yr Inflation | — | — | 2.80% | — |
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