April 16, 2021 Headlines

Yesterday’s Treasury market rally continued in the overnight session, and market participants still aren’t very sure of what sparked yesterday’s curve flattening, particularly considering the strong economic data that was released. The most common explanation from traders was that it was a short covering episode, but most of those responses were followed with a question mark. There have been some reality checks of late related to Covid, specifically on the vaccine front. In addition to the J&J vaccine being temporarily shelved, Pfizer’s CEO said yesterday that people will probably need a third booster shot within 12 months, as well as an annual vaccination going forward, in order to keep the virus under control. On the data front, housing starts rose 19.4% in March to a 1.739 million annual pace, well above expectations. Single-family starts were up 15.3% m/m, and multifamily starts rose 30.8% versus the prior month.

Jason Haley
Chief Investment Officer

Date Event Surv(M) Actual Prior Revised
04/12/21 Monthly Budget Statement -$658.0b -$659.6b -$119.1b
04/13/21 NFIB Small Business Optimism 98.5 98.2 95.8
04/13/21 CPI MoM 0.50% 0.60% 0.40%
04/13/21 CPI Ex Food and Energy MoM 0.20% 0.30% 0.10%
04/13/21 CPI YoY 2.50% 2.60% 1.70%
04/13/21 CPI Ex Food and Energy YoY 1.50% 1.60% 1.30%
04/13/21 CPI Index NSA 264.7 264.877 263.014
04/13/21 CPI Core Index SA 270.97 271.214 270.299
04/13/21 Real Avg Weekly Earnings YoY 3.90% 4.10%
04/13/21 Real Avg Hourly Earning YoY 1.50% 3.40%
04/14/21 MBA Mortgage Applications -3.70% -5.10%
04/14/21 Import Price Index MoM 0.90% 1.20% 1.30%
04/14/21 Import Price Index ex Petroleum MoM 0.40% 0.90% 0.50%
04/14/21 Import Price Index YoY 6.40% 6.90% 3.00% 3.10%
04/14/21 Export Price Index MoM 1.00% 2.10% 1.60%
04/14/21 Export Price Index YoY 9.10% 5.20% 5.30%
04/14/21 U.S. Federal Reserve Releases Beige Book
04/15/21 Empire Manufacturing 20 26.3 17.4
04/15/21 Initial Jobless Claims 700k 576k 744k 769k
04/15/21 Continuing Claims 3700k 3731k 3734k 3727k
04/15/21 Retail Sales Advance MoM 5.80% 9.80% -3.00% -2.70%
04/15/21 Retail Sales Ex Auto MoM 5.00% 8.40% -2.70% -2.50%
04/15/21 Retail Sales Ex Auto and Gas 6.40% 8.20% -3.30% -3.10%
04/15/21 Retail Sales Control Group 7.20% 6.90% -3.50% -3.40%
04/15/21 Philadelphia Fed Business Outlook 41.5 50.2 51.8 44.5
04/15/21 Industrial Production MoM 2.50% 1.40% -2.20% -2.60%
04/15/21 Capacity Utilization 75.60% 74.40% 73.80% 73.40%
04/15/21 Manufacturing (SIC) Production 3.60% 2.70% -3.10% -3.70%
04/15/21 Langer Consumer Comfort 53.9 51.9
04/15/21 Business Inventories 0.50% 0.50% 0.30% 0.40%
04/15/21 NAHB Housing Market Index 83 83 82
04/15/21 Total Net TIC Flows $72.6b $106.3b $105.8b
04/15/21 Net Long-term TIC Flows $4.2b $90.8b $91.0b
04/16/21 Housing Starts 1613k 1739k 1421k 1457k
04/16/21 Housing Starts MoM 13.50% 19.40% -10.30% -11.30%
04/16/21 Building Permits 1750k 1766k 1682k 1720k
04/16/21 Building Permits MoM 1.70% 2.70% -10.80% -8.80%
04/16/21 U. of Mich. Sentiment 89 84.9
04/16/21 U. of Mich. Current Conditions 96 93
04/16/21 U. of Mich. Expectations 85 79.7
04/16/21 U. of Mich. 1 Yr Inflation 3.30% 3.10%
04/16/21 U. of Mich. 5-10 Yr Inflation 2.80%

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