April 16, 2021 Headlines

Yesterday’s Treasury market rally continued in the overnight session, and market participants still aren’t very sure of what sparked yesterday’s curve flattening, particularly considering the strong economic data that was released. The most common explanation from traders was that it was a short covering episode, but most of those responses were followed with a question mark. There have been some reality checks of late related to Covid, specifically on the vaccine front. In addition to the J&J vaccine being temporarily shelved, Pfizer’s CEO said yesterday that people will probably need a third booster shot within 12 months, as well as an annual vaccination going forward, in order to keep the virus under control. On the data front, housing starts rose 19.4% in March to a 1.739 million annual pace, well above expectations. Single-family starts were up 15.3% m/m, and multifamily starts rose 30.8% versus the prior month.

Jason Haley
Chief Investment Officer

04/12/21Monthly Budget Statement-$658.0b-$659.6b-$119.1b
04/13/21NFIB Small Business Optimism98.598.295.8
04/13/21CPI MoM0.50%0.60%0.40%
04/13/21CPI Ex Food and Energy MoM0.20%0.30%0.10%
04/13/21CPI YoY2.50%2.60%1.70%
04/13/21CPI Ex Food and Energy YoY1.50%1.60%1.30%
04/13/21CPI Index NSA264.7264.877263.014
04/13/21CPI Core Index SA270.97271.214270.299
04/13/21Real Avg Weekly Earnings YoY3.90%4.10%
04/13/21Real Avg Hourly Earning YoY1.50%3.40%
04/14/21MBA Mortgage Applications-3.70%-5.10%
04/14/21Import Price Index MoM0.90%1.20%1.30%
04/14/21Import Price Index ex Petroleum MoM0.40%0.90%0.50%
04/14/21Import Price Index YoY6.40%6.90%3.00%3.10%
04/14/21Export Price Index MoM1.00%2.10%1.60%
04/14/21Export Price Index YoY9.10%5.20%5.30%
04/14/21U.S. Federal Reserve Releases Beige Book
04/15/21Empire Manufacturing2026.317.4
04/15/21Initial Jobless Claims700k576k744k769k
04/15/21Continuing Claims3700k3731k3734k3727k
04/15/21Retail Sales Advance MoM5.80%9.80%-3.00%-2.70%
04/15/21Retail Sales Ex Auto MoM5.00%8.40%-2.70%-2.50%
04/15/21Retail Sales Ex Auto and Gas6.40%8.20%-3.30%-3.10%
04/15/21Retail Sales Control Group7.20%6.90%-3.50%-3.40%
04/15/21Philadelphia Fed Business Outlook41.550.251.844.5
04/15/21Industrial Production MoM2.50%1.40%-2.20%-2.60%
04/15/21Capacity Utilization75.60%74.40%73.80%73.40%
04/15/21Manufacturing (SIC) Production3.60%2.70%-3.10%-3.70%
04/15/21Langer Consumer Comfort53.951.9
04/15/21Business Inventories0.50%0.50%0.30%0.40%
04/15/21NAHB Housing Market Index838382
04/15/21Total Net TIC Flows$72.6b$106.3b$105.8b
04/15/21Net Long-term TIC Flows$4.2b$90.8b$91.0b
04/16/21Housing Starts1613k1739k1421k1457k
04/16/21Housing Starts MoM13.50%19.40%-10.30%-11.30%
04/16/21Building Permits1750k1766k1682k1720k
04/16/21Building Permits MoM1.70%2.70%-10.80%-8.80%
04/16/21U. of Mich. Sentiment8984.9
04/16/21U. of Mich. Current Conditions9693
04/16/21U. of Mich. Expectations8579.7
04/16/21U. of Mich. 1 Yr Inflation3.30%3.10%
04/16/21U. of Mich. 5-10 Yr Inflation2.80%

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