Today’s job report came in better than expected. The median forecast called for an increase of 660,000 jobs in March, the actual increase came in at 916,000, the largest uptick since August of last year. The unemployment rate fell to 6% and the participation rate moved slightly higher. The increasing number of vaccinations, easing of restrictions, and stimulus are giving employers confidence to hire more employees. In response to the report, the curve is higher and slightly steeper with the 10-year up 2 bps. As a reminder, the market will be closing early today at 12PM Eastern in observance of the Easter holiday.
Hafizan Hamzah
Director, Investment Management Group
Date | Event | Surv(M) | Actual | Prior | Revised |
03/29/21 | Dallas Fed Manf. Activity | 16.8 | 28.9 | 17.2 | — |
03/30/21 | FHFA House Price Index MoM | 1.20% | 1.00% | 1.10% | 1.20% |
03/30/21 | S&P CoreLogic CS 20-City MoM SA | 1.20% | 1.20% | 1.25% | 1.30% |
03/30/21 | S&P CoreLogic CS 20-City YoY NSA | 11.20% | 11.10% | 10.10% | 10.17% |
03/30/21 | S&P CoreLogic CS US HPI YoY NSA | 10.50% | 11.22% | 10.37% | 10.41% |
03/30/21 | Conf. Board Consumer Confidence | 96.9 | 109.7 | 91.3 | 90.4 |
03/30/21 | Conf. Board Present Situation | — | 110 | 92 | 89.6 |
03/30/21 | Conf. Board Expectations | — | 109.6 | 90.8 | 90.9 |
03/31/21 | MBA Mortgage Applications | — | -2.20% | -2.50% | — |
03/31/21 | ADP Employment Change | 550k | 517k | 117k | 176k |
03/31/21 | MNI Chicago PMI | 61 | 66.3 | 59.5 | — |
03/31/21 | Pending Home Sales MoM | -3.00% | -10.60% | -2.80% | -2.40% |
03/31/21 | Pending Home Sales NSA YoY | 6.50% | -2.70% | 8.20% | 8.80% |
04/01/21 | Challenger Job Cuts YoY | — | -86.20% | -39.10% | — |
04/01/21 | Revisions: Initial and Continued Claims | ||||
04/01/21 | Initial Jobless Claims | 675k | 719k | 684k | 658k |
04/01/21 | Continuing Claims | 3750k | 3794k | 3870k | 3840k |
04/01/21 | Langer Consumer Comfort | — | 50 | 49.1 | — |
04/01/21 | Markit US Manufacturing PMI | 59.1 | 59.1 | 59 | — |
04/01/21 | Construction Spending MoM | -1.00% | -0.80% | 1.70% | 1.20% |
04/01/21 | ISM Manufacturing | 61.5 | 64.7 | 60.8 | — |
04/01/21 | ISM Prices Paid | 85 | 85.6 | 86 | — |
04/01/21 | ISM New Orders | 67 | 68 | 64.8 | — |
04/01/21 | ISM Employment | — | 59.6 | 54.4 | — |
04/01/21 | Wards Total Vehicle Sales | 16.40m | 17.75m | 15.67m | — |
04/02/21 | Two-Month Payroll Net Revision | — | 156k | — | — |
04/02/21 | Change in Nonfarm Payrolls | 660k | 916k | 379k | 468k |
04/02/21 | Change in Private Payrolls | 643k | 780k | 465k | 558k |
04/02/21 | Change in Manufact. Payrolls | 35k | 53k | 21k | 18k |
04/02/21 | Unemployment Rate | 6.00% | 6.00% | 6.20% | — |
04/02/21 | Average Hourly Earnings MoM | 0.10% | -0.10% | 0.20% | 0.30% |
04/02/21 | Average Hourly Earnings YoY | 4.50% | 4.20% | 5.30% | 5.20% |
04/02/21 | Average Weekly Hours All Employees | 34.7 | 34.9 | 34.6 | — |
04/02/21 | Labor Force Participation Rate | 61.50% | 61.50% | 61.40% | — |
04/02/21 | Underemployment Rate | — | 10.70% | 11.10% | — |
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