April 2, 2021 Headlines

Today’s job report came in better than expected. The median forecast called for an increase of 660,000 jobs in March, the actual increase came in at 916,000, the largest uptick since August of last year. The unemployment rate fell to 6% and the participation rate moved slightly higher. The increasing number of vaccinations, easing of restrictions, and stimulus are giving employers confidence to hire more employees. In response to the report, the curve is higher and slightly steeper with the 10-year up 2 bps. As a reminder, the market will be closing early today at 12PM Eastern in observance of the Easter holiday.

Hafizan Hamzah
Director, Investment Management Group

DateEventSurv(M)ActualPriorRevised
03/29/21Dallas Fed Manf. Activity16.828.917.2
03/30/21FHFA House Price Index MoM1.20%1.00%1.10%1.20%
03/30/21S&P CoreLogic CS 20-City MoM SA1.20%1.20%1.25%1.30%
03/30/21S&P CoreLogic CS 20-City YoY NSA11.20%11.10%10.10%10.17%
03/30/21S&P CoreLogic CS US HPI YoY NSA10.50%11.22%10.37%10.41%
03/30/21Conf. Board Consumer Confidence96.9109.791.390.4
03/30/21Conf. Board Present Situation1109289.6
03/30/21Conf. Board Expectations109.690.890.9
03/31/21MBA Mortgage Applications-2.20%-2.50%
03/31/21ADP Employment Change550k517k117k176k
03/31/21MNI Chicago PMI6166.359.5
03/31/21Pending Home Sales MoM-3.00%-10.60%-2.80%-2.40%
03/31/21Pending Home Sales NSA YoY6.50%-2.70%8.20%8.80%
04/01/21Challenger Job Cuts YoY-86.20%-39.10%
04/01/21Revisions: Initial and Continued Claims
04/01/21Initial Jobless Claims675k719k684k658k
04/01/21Continuing Claims3750k3794k3870k3840k
04/01/21Langer Consumer Comfort5049.1
04/01/21Markit US Manufacturing PMI59.159.159
04/01/21Construction Spending MoM-1.00%-0.80%1.70%1.20%
04/01/21ISM Manufacturing61.564.760.8
04/01/21ISM Prices Paid8585.686
04/01/21ISM New Orders676864.8
04/01/21ISM Employment59.654.4
04/01/21Wards Total Vehicle Sales16.40m17.75m15.67m
04/02/21Two-Month Payroll Net Revision156k
04/02/21Change in Nonfarm Payrolls660k916k379k468k
04/02/21Change in Private Payrolls643k780k465k558k
04/02/21Change in Manufact. Payrolls35k53k21k18k
04/02/21Unemployment Rate6.00%6.00%6.20%
04/02/21Average Hourly Earnings MoM0.10%-0.10%0.20%0.30%
04/02/21Average Hourly Earnings YoY4.50%4.20%5.30%5.20%
04/02/21Average Weekly Hours All Employees34.734.934.6
04/02/21Labor Force Participation Rate61.50%61.50%61.40%
04/02/21Underemployment Rate10.70%11.10%

Subscribe Today!

Subscribe to our email list and get the latest articles and announcements from ALM First.

ALM First offers investment advisory services through ALM First Financial Advisors, LLC, which is registered with the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (“SEC”). SEC registration does not constitute an endorsement of the firm by the SEC nor does it indicate that the firm has attained a particular level of skill or ability. The information contained herein does not constitute investment advice or a recommendation for you to purchase or sell any specific security. You are solely responsible for reviewing the content and for any actions you take or choose not to take based on your review of such content.Information contained herein was derived from third party sources as indicated. While such information is believed to be reliable, no representation or warranty is made concerning the accuracy of any information presented. We have not and will not independently verify this information. Where such sources include opinions and projections, such opinions and projections should be ascribed only to the applicable third party source and not to ALM First.Statements herein that reflect projections or expectations of future financial or economic performance are forward-looking statements. Such “forward-looking” statements are based on various assumptions, which assumptions may not prove to be correct. Accordingly, there can be no assurance that such assumptions and statements will accurately predict future events or actual performance. No representation or warranty can be given that the estimates, opinions or assumptions made herein will prove to be accurate. Any projections and forward-looking statements included herein should be considered speculative and are qualified in their entirety by the information and risks disclosed in the confidential offering document. Actual results for any period may or may not approximate such forward-looking statements. No representations or warranties whatsoever are made by ALM First Financial Advisors, LLC or any other person or entity as to the future profitability of investments recommended by ALM First Financial Advisors, LLC.