December 23, 2020 Headlines

The US Treasury curve is steeper this morning despite President Trump’s criticism on the recently passed COVID stimulus package. Equities initially declined by 0.7% in the overnight session but have since recovered with the S&P500 up 0.28% ahead of the open. The President’s comments called for Congress to increase the direct payments to $2,000 for each American and eliminate the wasteful or unnecessary items. The timing of the bill comes as November’s personal income and consumer spending was weaker-than-expected as an acceleration in coronavirus cases lead to the first contraction in both metrics since April. In the labor market, initial claims for the week of December 12th decreased to 803k with continuing claims still elevated at 5.337m.

Chris Eckhoff
Associate, Investment Management Group

12/21/2020Chicago Fed Nat Activity Index0.750.270.831.01
12/22/2020GDP Annualized QoQ33.10%33.40%33.10%
12/22/2020Personal Consumption40.60%41.00%40.60%
12/22/2020GDP Price Index3.60%3.50%3.60%
12/22/2020Core PCE QoQ3.50%3.40%3.50%
12/22/2020Conf. Board Consumer Confidence9788.696.192.9
12/22/2020Conf. Board Present Situation90.3105.9
12/22/2020Conf. Board Expectations87.589.584.3
12/22/2020Existing Home Sales6.70m6.69m6.85m6.86m
12/22/2020Existing Home Sales MoM-2.20%-2.50%4.30%4.40%
12/22/2020Richmond Fed Manufact. Index111915
12/23/2020MBA Mortgage Applications0.80%1.10%
12/23/2020PCE Core Deflator MoM0.10%0.00%0.00%
12/23/2020Durable Goods Orders0.60%0.90%1.30%1.80%
12/23/2020Durables Ex Transportation0.50%0.40%1.30%1.90%
12/23/2020Cap Goods Orders Nondef Ex Air0.60%0.40%0.80%1.60%
12/23/2020Cap Goods Ship Nondef Ex Air0.70%0.40%2.40%2.60%
12/23/2020Initial Jobless Claims880k803k885k892k
12/23/2020Continuing Claims5560k5337k5508k5507k
12/23/2020Personal Income-0.30%-1.10%-0.70%-0.60%
12/23/2020Personal Spending-0.20%-0.40%0.50%0.30%
12/23/2020Real Personal Spending-0.30%-0.40%0.50%0.30%
12/23/2020PCE Deflator MoM0.10%0.00%0.00%
12/23/2020PCE Deflator YoY1.20%1.10%1.20%
12/23/2020PCE Core Deflator YoY1.40%1.40%1.40%
12/23/2020FHFA House Price Index MoM0.60%1.50%1.70%
12/23/2020U. of Mich. Sentiment81.180.781.4
12/23/2020U. of Mich. Current Conditions9091.8
12/23/2020U. of Mich. Expectations74.674.7
12/23/2020U. of Mich. 1 Yr Inflation2.50%2.30%
12/23/2020U. of Mich. 5-10 Yr Inflation2.50%2.50%
12/23/2020New Home Sales995k841k999k945k
12/23/2020New Home Sales MoM-0.50%-11.00%-0.30%-2.10%
12/24/2020Bloomberg Consumer Comfort48.4

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