December 23, 2020 Headlines

The US Treasury curve is steeper this morning despite President Trump’s criticism on the recently passed COVID stimulus package. Equities initially declined by 0.7% in the overnight session but have since recovered with the S&P500 up 0.28% ahead of the open. The President’s comments called for Congress to increase the direct payments to $2,000 for each American and eliminate the wasteful or unnecessary items. The timing of the bill comes as November’s personal income and consumer spending was weaker-than-expected as an acceleration in coronavirus cases lead to the first contraction in both metrics since April. In the labor market, initial claims for the week of December 12th decreased to 803k with continuing claims still elevated at 5.337m.

Chris Eckhoff
Associate, Investment Management Group

Date Event Survey Actual Prior Revised
12/21/2020 Chicago Fed Nat Activity Index 0.75 0.27 0.83 1.01
12/22/2020 GDP Annualized QoQ 33.10% 33.40% 33.10%
12/22/2020 Personal Consumption 40.60% 41.00% 40.60%
12/22/2020 GDP Price Index 3.60% 3.50% 3.60%
12/22/2020 Core PCE QoQ 3.50% 3.40% 3.50%
12/22/2020 Conf. Board Consumer Confidence 97 88.6 96.1 92.9
12/22/2020 Conf. Board Present Situation 90.3 105.9
12/22/2020 Conf. Board Expectations 87.5 89.5 84.3
12/22/2020 Existing Home Sales 6.70m 6.69m 6.85m 6.86m
12/22/2020 Existing Home Sales MoM -2.20% -2.50% 4.30% 4.40%
12/22/2020 Richmond Fed Manufact. Index 11 19 15
12/23/2020 MBA Mortgage Applications 0.80% 1.10%
12/23/2020 PCE Core Deflator MoM 0.10% 0.00% 0.00%
12/23/2020 Durable Goods Orders 0.60% 0.90% 1.30% 1.80%
12/23/2020 Durables Ex Transportation 0.50% 0.40% 1.30% 1.90%
12/23/2020 Cap Goods Orders Nondef Ex Air 0.60% 0.40% 0.80% 1.60%
12/23/2020 Cap Goods Ship Nondef Ex Air 0.70% 0.40% 2.40% 2.60%
12/23/2020 Initial Jobless Claims 880k 803k 885k 892k
12/23/2020 Continuing Claims 5560k 5337k 5508k 5507k
12/23/2020 Personal Income -0.30% -1.10% -0.70% -0.60%
12/23/2020 Personal Spending -0.20% -0.40% 0.50% 0.30%
12/23/2020 Real Personal Spending -0.30% -0.40% 0.50% 0.30%
12/23/2020 PCE Deflator MoM 0.10% 0.00% 0.00%
12/23/2020 PCE Deflator YoY 1.20% 1.10% 1.20%
12/23/2020 PCE Core Deflator YoY 1.40% 1.40% 1.40%
12/23/2020 FHFA House Price Index MoM 0.60% 1.50% 1.70%
12/23/2020 U. of Mich. Sentiment 81.1 80.7 81.4
12/23/2020 U. of Mich. Current Conditions 90 91.8
12/23/2020 U. of Mich. Expectations 74.6 74.7
12/23/2020 U. of Mich. 1 Yr Inflation 2.50% 2.30%
12/23/2020 U. of Mich. 5-10 Yr Inflation 2.50% 2.50%
12/23/2020 New Home Sales 995k 841k 999k 945k
12/23/2020 New Home Sales MoM -0.50% -11.00% -0.30% -2.10%
12/24/2020 Bloomberg Consumer Comfort 48.4

Subscribe Today!

Subscribe to our email list and get the latest articles and announcements from ALM First.

ALM First offers investment advisory services through ALM First Financial Advisors, LLC, which is registered with the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (“SEC”). SEC registration does not constitute an endorsement of the firm by the SEC nor does it indicate that the firm has attained a particular level of skill or ability. The information contained herein does not constitute investment advice or a recommendation for you to purchase or sell any specific security. You are solely responsible for reviewing the content and for any actions you take or choose not to take based on your review of such content. Information contained herein was derived from third party sources as indicated. While such information is believed to be reliable, no representation or warranty is made concerning the accuracy of any information presented. We have not and will not independently verify this information. Where such sources include opinions and projections, such opinions and projections should be ascribed only to the applicable third party source and not to ALM First. Statements herein that reflect projections or expectations of future financial or economic performance are forward-looking statements. Such “forward-looking” statements are based on various assumptions, which assumptions may not prove to be correct. Accordingly, there can be no assurance that such assumptions and statements will accurately predict future events or actual performance. No representation or warranty can be given that the estimates, opinions or assumptions made herein will prove to be accurate. Any projections and forward-looking statements included herein should be considered speculative and are qualified in their entirety by the information and risks disclosed in the confidential offering document. Actual results for any period may or may not approximate such forward-looking statements. No representations or warranties whatsoever are made by ALM First Financial Advisors, LLC or any other person or entity as to the future profitability of investments recommended by ALM First Financial Advisors, LLC.