The US Treasury curve is steeper this morning despite President Trump’s criticism on the recently passed COVID stimulus package. Equities initially declined by 0.7% in the overnight session but have since recovered with the S&P500 up 0.28% ahead of the open. The President’s comments called for Congress to increase the direct payments to $2,000 for each American and eliminate the wasteful or unnecessary items. The timing of the bill comes as November’s personal income and consumer spending was weaker-than-expected as an acceleration in coronavirus cases lead to the first contraction in both metrics since April. In the labor market, initial claims for the week of December 12th decreased to 803k with continuing claims still elevated at 5.337m.
Chris Eckhoff
Associate, Investment Management Group
Date | Event | Survey | Actual | Prior | Revised |
12/21/2020 | Chicago Fed Nat Activity Index | 0.75 | 0.27 | 0.83 | 1.01 |
12/22/2020 | GDP Annualized QoQ | 33.10% | 33.40% | 33.10% | — |
12/22/2020 | Personal Consumption | 40.60% | 41.00% | 40.60% | — |
12/22/2020 | GDP Price Index | 3.60% | 3.50% | 3.60% | — |
12/22/2020 | Core PCE QoQ | 3.50% | 3.40% | 3.50% | — |
12/22/2020 | Conf. Board Consumer Confidence | 97 | 88.6 | 96.1 | 92.9 |
12/22/2020 | Conf. Board Present Situation | — | 90.3 | 105.9 | — |
12/22/2020 | Conf. Board Expectations | — | 87.5 | 89.5 | 84.3 |
12/22/2020 | Existing Home Sales | 6.70m | 6.69m | 6.85m | 6.86m |
12/22/2020 | Existing Home Sales MoM | -2.20% | -2.50% | 4.30% | 4.40% |
12/22/2020 | Richmond Fed Manufact. Index | 11 | 19 | 15 | — |
12/23/2020 | MBA Mortgage Applications | — | 0.80% | 1.10% | — |
12/23/2020 | PCE Core Deflator MoM | 0.10% | 0.00% | 0.00% | — |
12/23/2020 | Durable Goods Orders | 0.60% | 0.90% | 1.30% | 1.80% |
12/23/2020 | Durables Ex Transportation | 0.50% | 0.40% | 1.30% | 1.90% |
12/23/2020 | Cap Goods Orders Nondef Ex Air | 0.60% | 0.40% | 0.80% | 1.60% |
12/23/2020 | Cap Goods Ship Nondef Ex Air | 0.70% | 0.40% | 2.40% | 2.60% |
12/23/2020 | Initial Jobless Claims | 880k | 803k | 885k | 892k |
12/23/2020 | Continuing Claims | 5560k | 5337k | 5508k | 5507k |
12/23/2020 | Personal Income | -0.30% | -1.10% | -0.70% | -0.60% |
12/23/2020 | Personal Spending | -0.20% | -0.40% | 0.50% | 0.30% |
12/23/2020 | Real Personal Spending | -0.30% | -0.40% | 0.50% | 0.30% |
12/23/2020 | PCE Deflator MoM | 0.10% | 0.00% | 0.00% | — |
12/23/2020 | PCE Deflator YoY | 1.20% | 1.10% | 1.20% | — |
12/23/2020 | PCE Core Deflator YoY | 1.40% | 1.40% | 1.40% | — |
12/23/2020 | FHFA House Price Index MoM | 0.60% | 1.50% | 1.70% | — |
12/23/2020 | U. of Mich. Sentiment | 81.1 | 80.7 | 81.4 | — |
12/23/2020 | U. of Mich. Current Conditions | — | 90 | 91.8 | — |
12/23/2020 | U. of Mich. Expectations | — | 74.6 | 74.7 | — |
12/23/2020 | U. of Mich. 1 Yr Inflation | — | 2.50% | 2.30% | — |
12/23/2020 | U. of Mich. 5-10 Yr Inflation | — | 2.50% | 2.50% | — |
12/23/2020 | New Home Sales | 995k | 841k | 999k | 945k |
12/23/2020 | New Home Sales MoM | -0.50% | -11.00% | -0.30% | -2.10% |
12/24/2020 | Bloomberg Consumer Comfort | — | — | 48.4 | — |
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