February 10, 2021 Headlines

Treasury yields are drifting lower following a tamer than expected inflation report for January, and U.S. equity futures are up 45-50 basis points amid a mild risk-on tone ahead of the open. The January CPI report revealed softness in the core measure (excluding food & energy), which was unchanged from the prior month versus expectations of a 0.2% gain. On a year-over-year basis, core prices were up 1.4%, down from 1.6% the prior month and 1.5% expected. The components weighing more heavily on the January data were new/used vehicle sales and airfare. The softness isn’t a major surprise given the Covid-related restrictions of the last few months, and year-over-year inflation measures are expected to rise in Q2 given the base effect alone. 

Jason Haley
Chief Investment Officer

DateEventSurv(M)ActualPriorRevised
02/08/21Revisions: CPI
02/09/21NFIB Small Business Optimism979595.9
02/09/21JOLTS Job Openings6400664665276572
02/10/21MBA Mortgage Applications-4.10%8.10%
02/10/21CPI MoM0.30%0.30%0.40%0.20%
02/10/21CPI Ex Food and Energy MoM0.20%0.00%0.10%0.00%
02/10/21CPI YoY1.50%1.40%1.40%
02/10/21CPI Ex Food and Energy YoY1.50%1.40%1.60%
02/10/21CPI Index NSA261.8261.582260.474
02/10/21CPI Core Index SA270.592270.025270.117269.94
02/10/21Real Avg Weekly Earnings YoY6.10%4.90%5.30%
02/10/21Real Avg Hourly Earning YoY4.00%3.70%4.10%
02/10/21Wholesale Inventories MoM0.10%0.10%
02/10/21Wholesale Trade Sales MoM0.20%
02/10/21Monthly Budget Statement-$157.5b-$32.6b
02/10/21-02/13/21Mortgage Delinquencies7.65%
02/10/21-02/13/21MBA Mortgage Foreclosures0.59%
02/11/21Initial Jobless Claims758k779k
02/11/21Continuing Claims4420k4592k
02/11/21Bloomberg Consumer Comfort44.6
02/12/21Bloomberg Feb. United States Economic Survey
02/12/21U. of Mich. Sentiment80.979
02/12/21U. of Mich. Current Conditions8986.7
02/12/21U. of Mich. Expectations7674
02/12/21U. of Mich. 1 Yr Inflation3.00%
02/12/21U. of Mich. 5-10 Yr Inflation2.70%
02/12/21Revisions: PPI

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