February 10, 2021 Headlines

Treasury yields are drifting lower following a tamer than expected inflation report for January, and U.S. equity futures are up 45-50 basis points amid a mild risk-on tone ahead of the open. The January CPI report revealed softness in the core measure (excluding food & energy), which was unchanged from the prior month versus expectations of a 0.2% gain. On a year-over-year basis, core prices were up 1.4%, down from 1.6% the prior month and 1.5% expected. The components weighing more heavily on the January data were new/used vehicle sales and airfare. The softness isn’t a major surprise given the Covid-related restrictions of the last few months, and year-over-year inflation measures are expected to rise in Q2 given the base effect alone. 

Jason Haley
Chief Investment Officer

Date Event Surv(M) Actual Prior Revised
02/08/21 Revisions: CPI
02/09/21 NFIB Small Business Optimism 97 95 95.9 —
02/09/21 JOLTS Job Openings 6400 6646 6527 6572
02/10/21 MBA Mortgage Applications — -4.10% 8.10% —
02/10/21 CPI MoM 0.30% 0.30% 0.40% 0.20%
02/10/21 CPI Ex Food and Energy MoM 0.20% 0.00% 0.10% 0.00%
02/10/21 CPI YoY 1.50% 1.40% 1.40% —
02/10/21 CPI Ex Food and Energy YoY 1.50% 1.40% 1.60% —
02/10/21 CPI Index NSA 261.8 261.582 260.474 —
02/10/21 CPI Core Index SA 270.592 270.025 270.117 269.94
02/10/21 Real Avg Weekly Earnings YoY — 6.10% 4.90% 5.30%
02/10/21 Real Avg Hourly Earning YoY — 4.00% 3.70% 4.10%
02/10/21 Wholesale Inventories MoM 0.10% — 0.10% —
02/10/21 Wholesale Trade Sales MoM — — 0.20% —
02/10/21 Monthly Budget Statement -$157.5b — -$32.6b —
02/10/21-02/13/21 Mortgage Delinquencies — — 7.65% —
02/10/21-02/13/21 MBA Mortgage Foreclosures — — 0.59% —
02/11/21 Initial Jobless Claims 758k — 779k —
02/11/21 Continuing Claims 4420k — 4592k —
02/11/21 Bloomberg Consumer Comfort — — 44.6 —
02/12/21 Bloomberg Feb. United States Economic Survey
02/12/21 U. of Mich. Sentiment 80.9 — 79 —
02/12/21 U. of Mich. Current Conditions 89 — 86.7 —
02/12/21 U. of Mich. Expectations 76 — 74 —
02/12/21 U. of Mich. 1 Yr Inflation — — 3.00% —
02/12/21 U. of Mich. 5-10 Yr Inflation — — 2.70% —
02/12/21 Revisions: PPI

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