February 26, 2021 Headlines

Yesterday’s bond market route wreaked havoc on broader markets, and the volatility naturally spilled into the overnight session. Treasury yields traded in a wide range in Asian markets, but yield buyers ultimately emerged, and yields are 3-6 basis points lower at the moment. Yesterday’s pain culminated with a very sloppy 7-year Treasury auction, which sent yields higher across the curve, including a spike in the 10-year note yield to 1.61%. The Fed has remained mostly silent to this point. Some regional bank presidents spoke yesterday and essentially reiterated Powell’s comments from earlier this week that the sell-off in bonds was simply a sign of an improved economic outlook (as opposed to inflation worries). However, yesterday’s activity would have presumably captured the Fed’s attention, particularly the unorderly 7-year auction. What the Fed will or won’t do at this point is the wildcard that is very difficult for market participants to handicap into this market shift.

Jason Haley
Chief Investment Officer

02/22/21Chicago Fed Nat Activity Index0.50.660.520.41
02/22/21Leading Index0.40%0.50%0.30%0.40%
02/22/21Dallas Fed Manf. Activity517.27
02/23/21FHFA House Price Index MoM1.00%1.10%1.00%
02/23/21House Price Purchase Index QoQ3.80%3.10%3.40%
02/23/21S&P CoreLogic CS 20-City MoM SA1.25%1.25%1.42%1.46%
02/23/21S&P CoreLogic CS 20-City YoY NSA9.90%10.10%9.08%9.20%
02/23/21S&P CoreLogic CS US HPI YoY NSA10.37%9.49%9.50%
02/23/21Conf. Board Consumer Confidence9091.389.388.9
02/23/21Conf. Board Present Situation9284.485.5
02/23/21Conf. Board Expectations90.892.591.2
02/23/21Richmond Fed Manufact. Index151414
02/24/21MBA Mortgage Applications-11.40%-5.10%
02/24/21New Home Sales856k923k842k885k
02/24/21New Home Sales MoM1.70%4.30%1.60%5.50%
02/25/21Durable Goods Orders1.10%3.40%0.50%1.20%
02/25/21Durables Ex Transportation0.70%1.40%1.10%1.70%
02/25/21Cap Goods Orders Nondef Ex Air0.80%0.50%0.70%1.50%
02/25/21Cap Goods Ship Nondef Ex Air0.60%2.10%0.70%1.00%
02/25/21Initial Jobless Claims825k730k861k841k
02/25/21Continuing Claims4460k4419k4494k4520k
02/25/21GDP Annualized QoQ4.20%4.10%4.00%
02/25/21Personal Consumption2.50%2.40%2.50%
02/25/21GDP Price Index2.00%2.10%2.00%
02/25/21Core PCE QoQ1.40%1.40%1.40%
02/25/21Bloomberg Consumer Comfort47.345.8
02/25/21Pending Home Sales MoM0.00%-2.80%-0.30%0.50%
02/25/21Pending Home Sales NSA YoY8.20%22.80%23.10%
02/25/21Kansas City Fed Manf. Activity152417
02/26/21Advance Goods Trade Balance-$83.0b-$83.7b-$82.5b-$83.2b
02/26/21Retail Inventories MoM0.50%-0.60%1.00%1.90%
02/26/21Wholesale Inventories MoM0.40%1.30%0.30%0.50%
02/26/21Personal Income9.50%10.00%0.60%
02/26/21Personal Spending2.50%2.40%-0.20%-0.40%
02/26/21Real Personal Spending2.20%2.00%-0.60%-0.80%
02/26/21PCE Deflator MoM0.30%0.30%0.40%
02/26/21PCE Deflator YoY1.40%1.50%1.30%
02/26/21PCE Core Deflator MoM0.10%0.30%0.30%
02/26/21PCE Core Deflator YoY1.40%1.50%1.50%1.40%
02/26/21MNI Chicago PMI6163.8
02/26/21U. of Mich. Sentiment76.576.2
02/26/21U. of Mich. Current Conditions86.2
02/26/21U. of Mich. Expectations69.8
02/26/21U. of Mich. 1 Yr Inflation3.30%
02/26/21U. of Mich. 5-10 Yr Inflation2.70%

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