Yesterday’s bond market route wreaked havoc on broader markets, and the volatility naturally spilled into the overnight session. Treasury yields traded in a wide range in Asian markets, but yield buyers ultimately emerged, and yields are 3-6 basis points lower at the moment. Yesterday’s pain culminated with a very sloppy 7-year Treasury auction, which sent yields higher across the curve, including a spike in the 10-year note yield to 1.61%. The Fed has remained mostly silent to this point. Some regional bank presidents spoke yesterday and essentially reiterated Powell’s comments from earlier this week that the sell-off in bonds was simply a sign of an improved economic outlook (as opposed to inflation worries). However, yesterday’s activity would have presumably captured the Fed’s attention, particularly the unorderly 7-year auction. What the Fed will or won’t do at this point is the wildcard that is very difficult for market participants to handicap into this market shift.
Jason Haley
Chief Investment Officer
Date | Event | Surv(M) | Actual | Prior | Revised |
02/22/21 | Chicago Fed Nat Activity Index | 0.5 | 0.66 | 0.52 | 0.41 |
02/22/21 | Leading Index | 0.40% | 0.50% | 0.30% | 0.40% |
02/22/21 | Dallas Fed Manf. Activity | 5 | 17.2 | 7 | — |
02/23/21 | FHFA House Price Index MoM | 1.00% | 1.10% | 1.00% | — |
02/23/21 | House Price Purchase Index QoQ | — | 3.80% | 3.10% | 3.40% |
02/23/21 | S&P CoreLogic CS 20-City MoM SA | 1.25% | 1.25% | 1.42% | 1.46% |
02/23/21 | S&P CoreLogic CS 20-City YoY NSA | 9.90% | 10.10% | 9.08% | 9.20% |
02/23/21 | S&P CoreLogic CS US HPI YoY NSA | — | 10.37% | 9.49% | 9.50% |
02/23/21 | Conf. Board Consumer Confidence | 90 | 91.3 | 89.3 | 88.9 |
02/23/21 | Conf. Board Present Situation | — | 92 | 84.4 | 85.5 |
02/23/21 | Conf. Board Expectations | — | 90.8 | 92.5 | 91.2 |
02/23/21 | Richmond Fed Manufact. Index | 15 | 14 | 14 | — |
02/24/21 | MBA Mortgage Applications | — | -11.40% | -5.10% | — |
02/24/21 | New Home Sales | 856k | 923k | 842k | 885k |
02/24/21 | New Home Sales MoM | 1.70% | 4.30% | 1.60% | 5.50% |
02/25/21 | Durable Goods Orders | 1.10% | 3.40% | 0.50% | 1.20% |
02/25/21 | Durables Ex Transportation | 0.70% | 1.40% | 1.10% | 1.70% |
02/25/21 | Cap Goods Orders Nondef Ex Air | 0.80% | 0.50% | 0.70% | 1.50% |
02/25/21 | Cap Goods Ship Nondef Ex Air | 0.60% | 2.10% | 0.70% | 1.00% |
02/25/21 | Initial Jobless Claims | 825k | 730k | 861k | 841k |
02/25/21 | Continuing Claims | 4460k | 4419k | 4494k | 4520k |
02/25/21 | GDP Annualized QoQ | 4.20% | 4.10% | 4.00% | — |
02/25/21 | Personal Consumption | 2.50% | 2.40% | 2.50% | — |
02/25/21 | GDP Price Index | 2.00% | 2.10% | 2.00% | — |
02/25/21 | Core PCE QoQ | 1.40% | 1.40% | 1.40% | — |
02/25/21 | Bloomberg Consumer Comfort | — | 47.3 | 45.8 | — |
02/25/21 | Pending Home Sales MoM | 0.00% | -2.80% | -0.30% | 0.50% |
02/25/21 | Pending Home Sales NSA YoY | — | 8.20% | 22.80% | 23.10% |
02/25/21 | Kansas City Fed Manf. Activity | 15 | 24 | 17 | — |
02/26/21 | Advance Goods Trade Balance | -$83.0b | -$83.7b | -$82.5b | -$83.2b |
02/26/21 | Retail Inventories MoM | 0.50% | -0.60% | 1.00% | 1.90% |
02/26/21 | Wholesale Inventories MoM | 0.40% | 1.30% | 0.30% | 0.50% |
02/26/21 | Personal Income | 9.50% | 10.00% | 0.60% | — |
02/26/21 | Personal Spending | 2.50% | 2.40% | -0.20% | -0.40% |
02/26/21 | Real Personal Spending | 2.20% | 2.00% | -0.60% | -0.80% |
02/26/21 | PCE Deflator MoM | 0.30% | 0.30% | 0.40% | — |
02/26/21 | PCE Deflator YoY | 1.40% | 1.50% | 1.30% | — |
02/26/21 | PCE Core Deflator MoM | 0.10% | 0.30% | 0.30% | — |
02/26/21 | PCE Core Deflator YoY | 1.40% | 1.50% | 1.50% | 1.40% |
02/26/21 | MNI Chicago PMI | 61 | — | 63.8 | — |
02/26/21 | U. of Mich. Sentiment | 76.5 | — | 76.2 | — |
02/26/21 | U. of Mich. Current Conditions | — | — | 86.2 | — |
02/26/21 | U. of Mich. Expectations | — | — | 69.8 | — |
02/26/21 | U. of Mich. 1 Yr Inflation | — | — | 3.30% | — |
02/26/21 | U. of Mich. 5-10 Yr Inflation | — | — | 2.70% | — |
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