January 12, 2021 Headlines
Treasuries and U.S. equity futures are little changed to start the morning. European equity markets are weaker on reports that Germany is considering another 10 weeks of lockdown to combat the Covid crisis. The move in long-end Treasuries to start the year has been sharp. Once it became clear that both Democrat candidates would win the Georgia Senate runoff elections, the yield curve has steepened more than 20 bps (2yr/10yr spread) on expectations for greater fiscal stimulus. Several Fed leaders will be speaking at multiple events today, including Fed Governor Lael Brainard this morning.
Jason Haley
Chief Investment Officer
| Date | Event | Surv(M) | Actual | Prior | Revised |
| 01/12/21 | NFIB Small Business Optimism | 100.2 | 95.9 | 101.4 | — |
| 01/12/21 | JOLTS Job Openings | 6450 | — | 6652 | — |
| 01/13/21 | MBA Mortgage Applications | — | — | 1.70% | — |
| 01/13/21 | CPI MoM | 0.40% | — | 0.20% | — |
| 01/13/21 | CPI Ex Food and Energy MoM | 0.10% | — | 0.20% | — |
| 01/13/21 | CPI YoY | 1.30% | — | 1.20% | — |
| 01/13/21 | CPI Ex Food and Energy YoY | 1.60% | — | 1.60% | — |
| 01/13/21 | CPI Index NSA | 260.401 | — | 260.229 | — |
| 01/13/21 | CPI Core Index SA | 270.243 | — | 269.887 | — |
| 01/13/21 | Real Avg Hourly Earning YoY | — | — | 3.20% | — |
| 01/13/21 | Real Avg Weekly Earnings YoY | — | — | 4.70% | — |
| 01/13/21 | Monthly Budget Statement | -$144.5b | — | -$145.3b | — |
| 01/13/21 | U.S. Federal Reserve Releases Beige Book | ||||
| 01/14/21 | Revisions: Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing Survey | ||||
| 01/14/21 | Initial Jobless Claims | 787k | — | 787k | — |
| 01/14/21 | Import Price Index MoM | 0.70% | — | 0.10% | — |
| 01/14/21 | Continuing Claims | 5000k | — | 5072k | — |
| 01/14/21 | Import Price Index ex Petroleum MoM | 0.10% | — | 0.00% | — |
| 01/14/21 | Import Price Index YoY | -0.80% | — | -1.00% | — |
| 01/14/21 | Export Price Index MoM | 0.60% | — | 0.60% | — |
| 01/14/21 | Export Price Index YoY | — | — | -1.10% | — |
| 01/14/21 | Bloomberg Consumer Comfort | — | — | 44.4 | — |
| 01/15/21 | PPI Final Demand MoM | 0.40% | — | 0.10% | — |
| 01/15/21 | PPI Ex Food and Energy MoM | 0.20% | — | 0.10% | — |
| 01/15/21 | PPI Ex Food, Energy, Trade MoM | 0.20% | — | 0.10% | — |
| 01/15/21 | PPI Final Demand YoY | 0.80% | — | 0.80% | — |
| 01/15/21 | PPI Ex Food, Energy, Trade YoY | 0.90% | — | 0.90% | — |
| 01/15/21 | PPI Ex Food and Energy YoY | 1.30% | — | 1.40% | — |
| 01/15/21 | Empire Manufacturing | 6 | — | 4.9 | — |
| 01/15/21 | Retail Sales Advance MoM | 0.00% | — | -1.10% | — |
| 01/15/21 | Retail Sales Ex Auto MoM | -0.10% | — | -0.90% | — |
| 01/15/21 | Retail Sales Ex Auto and Gas | -0.30% | — | -0.80% | — |
| 01/15/21 | Retail Sales Control Group | 0.10% | — | -0.50% | — |
| 01/15/21 | Bloomberg Jan. United States Economic Survey | ||||
| 01/15/21 | Capacity Utilization | 73.60% | — | 73.30% | — |
| 01/15/21 | Industrial Production MoM | 0.50% | — | 0.40% | — |
| 01/15/21 | Manufacturing (SIC) Production | 0.50% | — | 0.80% | — |
| 01/15/21 | Business Inventories | 0.50% | — | 0.70% | — |
| 01/15/21 | U. of Mich. Sentiment | 79.9 | — | 80.7 | — |
| 01/15/21 | U. of Mich. Current Conditions | — | — | 90 | — |
| 01/15/21 | U. of Mich. Expectations | — | — | 74.6 | — |
| 01/15/21 | U. of Mich. 1 Yr Inflation | 2.50% | — | 2.50% | — |
| 01/15/21 | U. of Mich. 5-10 Yr Inflation | — | — | 2.50% | — |
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