Long-end yields are slightly lower while US equity futures are pointing to a lower open this morning. Comments made yesterday by St. Louis Fed President Bullard and Boston Fed president Rosengren helped to allay fears of another taper tantrum and keep a lid on bond yields.
December CPI data was released this morning and showed a modest pullback relative to November. Core CPI, excluding food and energy, increased by 0.1% last month, a 0.1% decline from November. Labor market weakness coupled with tepid demand were the main drivers of the slowdown. Over the course of a year, core CPI rose by 1.6% which was right in line with the median forecast.
Headline CPI rose to 0.4% from 0.2% as gasoline prices increased by 8.4% in December, the largest jump since June. Food costs rose to 0.4% after declining by 0.1% in November, indicating an increase in grocery and takeout costs.
Hafizan Hamzah
Director, Investment Management Group
| Date | Event | Surv(M) | Actual | Prior | Revised |
| 01/12/21 | NFIB Small Business Optimism | 100.2 | 95.9 | 101.4 | — |
| 01/12/21 | JOLTS Job Openings | 6450 | 6527 | 6652 | 6632 |
| 01/13/21 | MBA Mortgage Applications | — | 16.70% | 1.70% | — |
| 01/13/21 | CPI MoM | 0.40% | 0.40% | 0.20% | — |
| 01/13/21 | CPI Ex Food and Energy MoM | 0.10% | 0.10% | 0.20% | — |
| 01/13/21 | CPI YoY | 1.30% | 1.40% | 1.20% | — |
| 01/13/21 | CPI Ex Food and Energy YoY | 1.60% | 1.60% | 1.60% | — |
| 01/13/21 | CPI Index NSA | 260.401 | 260.474 | 260.229 | — |
| 01/13/21 | CPI Core Index SA | 270.243 | 270.117 | 269.887 | — |
| 01/13/21 | Real Avg Hourly Earning YoY | — | 3.70% | 3.20% | — |
| 01/13/21 | Real Avg Weekly Earnings YoY | — | 4.90% | 4.70% | — |
| 01/13/21 | Monthly Budget Statement | -$143.5b | — | -$145.3b | — |
| 01/13/21 | U.S. Federal Reserve Releases Beige Book | ||||
| 01/14/21 | Revisions: Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing Survey | ||||
| 01/14/21 | Initial Jobless Claims | 786k | — | 787k | — |
| 01/14/21 | Import Price Index MoM | 0.70% | — | 0.10% | — |
| 01/14/21 | Continuing Claims | 5000k | — | 5072k | — |
| 01/14/21 | Import Price Index ex Petroleum MoM | 0.10% | — | 0.00% | — |
| 01/14/21 | Import Price Index YoY | -0.80% | — | -1.00% | — |
| 01/14/21 | Export Price Index MoM | 0.60% | — | 0.60% | — |
| 01/14/21 | Export Price Index YoY | — | — | -1.10% | — |
| 01/14/21 | Bloomberg Consumer Comfort | — | — | 44.4 | — |
| 01/15/21 | PPI Final Demand MoM | 0.40% | — | 0.10% | — |
| 01/15/21 | PPI Ex Food and Energy MoM | 0.20% | — | 0.10% | — |
| 01/15/21 | PPI Ex Food, Energy, Trade MoM | 0.20% | — | 0.10% | — |
| 01/15/21 | PPI Final Demand YoY | 0.80% | — | 0.80% | — |
| 01/15/21 | PPI Ex Food, Energy, Trade YoY | 0.90% | — | 0.90% | — |
| 01/15/21 | PPI Ex Food and Energy YoY | 1.30% | — | 1.40% | — |
| 01/15/21 | Empire Manufacturing | 6 | — | 4.9 | — |
| 01/15/21 | Retail Sales Advance MoM | 0.00% | — | -1.10% | — |
| 01/15/21 | Retail Sales Ex Auto MoM | -0.10% | — | -0.90% | — |
| 01/15/21 | Retail Sales Ex Auto and Gas | -0.30% | — | -0.80% | — |
| 01/15/21 | Retail Sales Control Group | 0.10% | — | -0.50% | — |
| 01/15/21 | Bloomberg Jan. United States Economic Survey | ||||
| 01/15/21 | Capacity Utilization | 73.60% | — | 73.30% | — |
| 01/15/21 | Industrial Production MoM | 0.50% | — | 0.40% | — |
| 01/15/21 | Manufacturing (SIC) Production | 0.50% | — | 0.80% | — |
| 01/15/21 | Business Inventories | 0.50% | — | 0.70% | — |
| 01/15/21 | U. of Mich. Sentiment | 79.8 | — | 80.7 | — |
| 01/15/21 | U. of Mich. Current Conditions | — | — | 90 | — |
| 01/15/21 | U. of Mich. Expectations | — | — | 74.6 | — |
| 01/15/21 | U. of Mich. 1 Yr Inflation | 2.50% | — | 2.50% | — |
| 01/15/21 | U. of Mich. 5-10 Yr Inflation | — | — | 2.50% | — |
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