January 13, 2021 Headlines

Long-end yields are slightly lower while US equity futures are pointing to a lower open this morning. Comments made yesterday by St. Louis Fed President Bullard and Boston Fed president Rosengren helped to allay fears of another taper tantrum and keep a lid on bond yields.

December CPI data was released this morning and showed a modest pullback relative to November. Core CPI, excluding food and energy, increased by 0.1% last month, a 0.1% decline from November. Labor market weakness coupled with tepid demand were the main drivers of the slowdown. Over the course of a year, core CPI rose by 1.6% which was right in line with the median forecast.

Headline CPI rose to 0.4% from 0.2% as gasoline prices increased by 8.4% in December, the largest jump since June. Food costs rose to 0.4% after declining by 0.1% in November, indicating an increase in grocery and takeout costs.

Hafizan Hamzah
Director, Investment Management Group

DateEventSurv(M)ActualPriorRevised
01/12/21NFIB Small Business Optimism100.295.9101.4
01/12/21JOLTS Job Openings6450652766526632
01/13/21MBA Mortgage Applications16.70%1.70%
01/13/21CPI MoM0.40%0.40%0.20%
01/13/21CPI Ex Food and Energy MoM0.10%0.10%0.20%
01/13/21CPI YoY1.30%1.40%1.20%
01/13/21CPI Ex Food and Energy YoY1.60%1.60%1.60%
01/13/21CPI Index NSA260.401260.474260.229
01/13/21CPI Core Index SA270.243270.117269.887
01/13/21Real Avg Hourly Earning YoY3.70%3.20%
01/13/21Real Avg Weekly Earnings YoY4.90%4.70%
01/13/21Monthly Budget Statement-$143.5b-$145.3b
01/13/21U.S. Federal Reserve Releases Beige Book
01/14/21Revisions: Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing Survey
01/14/21Initial Jobless Claims786k787k
01/14/21Import Price Index MoM0.70%0.10%
01/14/21Continuing Claims5000k5072k
01/14/21Import Price Index ex Petroleum MoM0.10%0.00%
01/14/21Import Price Index YoY-0.80%-1.00%
01/14/21Export Price Index MoM0.60%0.60%
01/14/21Export Price Index YoY-1.10%
01/14/21Bloomberg Consumer Comfort44.4
01/15/21PPI Final Demand MoM0.40%0.10%
01/15/21PPI Ex Food and Energy MoM0.20%0.10%
01/15/21PPI Ex Food, Energy, Trade MoM0.20%0.10%
01/15/21PPI Final Demand YoY0.80%0.80%
01/15/21PPI Ex Food, Energy, Trade YoY0.90%0.90%
01/15/21PPI Ex Food and Energy YoY1.30%1.40%
01/15/21Empire Manufacturing64.9
01/15/21Retail Sales Advance MoM0.00%-1.10%
01/15/21Retail Sales Ex Auto MoM-0.10%-0.90%
01/15/21Retail Sales Ex Auto and Gas-0.30%-0.80%
01/15/21Retail Sales Control Group0.10%-0.50%
01/15/21Bloomberg Jan. United States Economic Survey
01/15/21Capacity Utilization73.60%73.30%
01/15/21Industrial Production MoM0.50%0.40%
01/15/21Manufacturing (SIC) Production0.50%0.80%
01/15/21Business Inventories0.50%0.70%
01/15/21U. of Mich. Sentiment79.880.7
01/15/21U. of Mich. Current Conditions90
01/15/21U. of Mich. Expectations74.6
01/15/21U. of Mich. 1 Yr Inflation2.50%2.50%
01/15/21U. of Mich. 5-10 Yr Inflation2.50%

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