Nonfarm payrolls growth exceeded expectations for a 14th consecutive month in May, with 339,000 jobs added vs. 195,000 expected. Further, the prior two months were revised higher by 93,000 jobs. The headline unemployment rate rose 30 basis points to 3.7% thanks to a double whammy of a decline in household employment and an increase in the official labor pool. Wage growth was in line with expectations at 0.3% m/m, but the length of the average workweek ticked down slightly to 34.3 hours. Treasury yields are up 4-10 basis points following the release, with the front-end experiencing the biggest move. There was a clear divergence in the establishment survey (nonfarm payrolls) and the household survey (unemployment rate), the latter of which tends to be a little more volatile. Despite the increase in the unemployment rate, the upside surprise in payrolls growth likely adds more fuel to the policy debate at the June 14 FOMC meeting, particularly if the June 13 CPI report shows inflation holding stubbornly high.
Jason Haley
Chief Investment Officer
Date | Event | Survey | Actual | Prior | Revised |
6/2/2023 | Two-Month Payroll Net Revision | — | 93k | — | — |
6/2/2023 | Change in Nonfarm Payrolls | 195k | 339k | 253k | 294k |
6/2/2023 | Change in Private Payrolls | 168k | 283k | 230k | 253k |
6/2/2023 | Change in Manufact. Payrolls | 5k | -2k | 11k | 10k |
6/2/2023 | Unemployment Rate | 3.50% | 3.70% | 3.40% | — |
6/2/2023 | Average Hourly Earnings MoM | 0.30% | 0.30% | 0.50% | 0.40% |
6/2/2023 | Average Hourly Earnings YoY | 4.40% | 4.30% | 4.40% | — |
6/2/2023 | Average Weekly Hours All Employees | 34.4 | 34.3 | 34.4 | — |
6/2/2023 | Labor Force Participation Rate | 62.60% | 62.60% | 62.60% | — |
6/2/2023 | Underemployment Rate | — | 6.70% | 6.60% | — |
6/5/2023 | S&P Global US Services PMI | 55.1 | — | 55.1 | — |
6/5/2023 | S&P Global US Composite PMI | — | — | 54.5 | — |
6/5/2023 | Factory Orders Ex Trans | 0.20% | — | -0.70% | -1.00% |
6/5/2023 | Factory Orders | 0.80% | — | 0.90% | 0.40% |
6/5/2023 | Durable Goods Orders | — | — | 1.10% | — |
6/5/2023 | Durables Ex Transportation | — | — | -0.20% | — |
6/5/2023 | Cap Goods Orders Nondef Ex Air | — | — | 1.40% | — |
6/5/2023 | Cap Goods Ship Nondef Ex Air | — | — | 0.50% | — |
6/5/2023 | ISM Services Index | 52.5 | — | 51.9 | — |
6/5/2023 | ISM Services Prices Paid | — | — | 59.6 | — |
6/5/2023 | ISM Services Employment | — | — | 50.8 | — |
6/5/2023 | ISM Services New Orders | — | — | 56.1 | — |
6/7/2023 | MBA Mortgage Applications | — | — | -3.70% | — |
6/7/2023 | Revisions: US Trade in Goods and Services | ||||
6/7/2023 | Trade Balance | -$75.3b | — | -$64.2b | — |
6/7/2023 | Consumer Credit | $21.600b | — | $26.514b | — |
6/8/2023 | Initial Jobless Claims | 236k | — | 232k | — |
6/8/2023 | Continuing Claims | — | — | 1795k | — |
6/8/2023 | Wholesale Trade Sales MoM | 1.00% | — | -2.10% | — |
6/8/2023 | Wholesale Inventories MoM | -0.20% | — | -0.20% | — |
6/8/2023 | Household Change in Net Worth | — | — | $2927b | — |
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