June 2, 2023 Headlines

Nonfarm payrolls growth exceeded expectations for a 14th consecutive month in May, with 339,000 jobs added vs. 195,000 expected. Further, the prior two months were revised higher by 93,000 jobs. The headline unemployment rate rose 30 basis points to 3.7% thanks to a double whammy of a decline in household employment and an increase in the official labor pool. Wage growth was in line with expectations at 0.3% m/m, but the length of the average workweek ticked down slightly to 34.3 hours. Treasury yields are up 4-10 basis points following the release, with the front-end experiencing the biggest move. There was a clear divergence in the establishment survey (nonfarm payrolls) and the household survey (unemployment rate), the latter of which tends to be a little more volatile. Despite the increase in the unemployment rate, the upside surprise in payrolls growth likely adds more fuel to the policy debate at the June 14 FOMC meeting, particularly if the June 13 CPI report shows inflation holding stubbornly high.

Jason Haley
Chief Investment Officer

Date Event Survey Actual Prior Revised
6/2/2023 Two-Month Payroll Net Revision 93k
6/2/2023 Change in Nonfarm Payrolls 195k 339k 253k 294k
6/2/2023 Change in Private Payrolls 168k 283k 230k 253k
6/2/2023 Change in Manufact. Payrolls 5k -2k 11k 10k
6/2/2023 Unemployment Rate 3.50% 3.70% 3.40%
6/2/2023 Average Hourly Earnings MoM 0.30% 0.30% 0.50% 0.40%
6/2/2023 Average Hourly Earnings YoY 4.40% 4.30% 4.40%
6/2/2023 Average Weekly Hours All Employees 34.4 34.3 34.4
6/2/2023 Labor Force Participation Rate 62.60% 62.60% 62.60%
6/2/2023 Underemployment Rate 6.70% 6.60%
6/5/2023 S&P Global US Services PMI 55.1 55.1
6/5/2023 S&P Global US Composite PMI 54.5
6/5/2023 Factory Orders Ex Trans 0.20% -0.70% -1.00%
6/5/2023 Factory Orders 0.80% 0.90% 0.40%
6/5/2023 Durable Goods Orders 1.10%
6/5/2023 Durables Ex Transportation -0.20%
6/5/2023 Cap Goods Orders Nondef Ex Air 1.40%
6/5/2023 Cap Goods Ship Nondef Ex Air 0.50%
6/5/2023 ISM Services Index 52.5 51.9
6/5/2023 ISM Services Prices Paid 59.6
6/5/2023 ISM Services Employment 50.8
6/5/2023 ISM Services New Orders 56.1
6/7/2023 MBA Mortgage Applications -3.70%
6/7/2023 Revisions: US Trade in Goods and Services
6/7/2023 Trade Balance -$75.3b -$64.2b
6/7/2023 Consumer Credit $21.600b $26.514b
6/8/2023 Initial Jobless Claims 236k 232k
6/8/2023 Continuing Claims 1795k
6/8/2023 Wholesale Trade Sales MoM 1.00% -2.10%
6/8/2023 Wholesale Inventories MoM -0.20% -0.20%
6/8/2023 Household Change in Net Worth $2927b

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