June 22, 2022 Headlines

An overnight risk-off trade has global equities and oil prices lower, fueling a rally in the bond market that has Treasury yield 9-12 basis points lower across the curve. There doesn’t appear to be anything specific driving today’s rally other the same general recession fears that have emerged since the June 15 FOMC meeting. Oil prices are down more than 5% to start the day, and S&P 500 futures are down 1.6% ahead of the open (8:54am EDT). The big event for today will be Fed Chair Powell’s semi-annual testimony before the Senate Banking Committee, where he will likely be on the defensive on the Fed’s management of current inflation risks as well as its commitment to full employment while combating inflation. The MBA mortgage applications index rose for a second consecutive week. While the refi application index fell 3.1% last week, purchase applications were up 8%. The survey showed the average conventional 30-year fixed rate rising 33 basis points to 5.98%, the highest since 2008 and up 280 basis points from a year earlier.

Jason Haley
Chief Investment Officer

Date Event Survey Actual Prior Revised
6/21/2022 Chicago Fed Nat Activity Index 0.47 0.01 0.47 0.4
6/21/2022 Existing Home Sales 5.40m 5.41m 5.61m 5.60m
6/21/2022 Existing Home Sales MoM -3.70% -3.40% -2.40% -2.60%
6/22/2022 MBA Mortgage Applications — 4.20% 6.60% —
6/23/2022 Current Account Balance -$275.0b — -$217.9b —
6/23/2022 Initial Jobless Claims 226k — 229k —
6/23/2022 Continuing Claims 1320k — 1312k —
6/23/2022 S&P Global US Manufacturing PMI 56 — 57 —
6/23/2022 S&P Global US Services PMI 53.5 — 53.4 —
6/23/2022 S&P Global US Composite PMI 52.8 — 53.6 —
6/23/2022 Kansas City Fed Manf. Activity 15 — 23 —
6/24/2022 U. of Mich. Sentiment 50.2 — 50.2 —
6/24/2022 U. of Mich. Current Conditions 55.4 — 55.4 —
6/24/2022 U. of Mich. Expectations — — 46.8 —
6/24/2022 U. of Mich. 1 Yr Inflation — — 5.40% —
6/24/2022 U. of Mich. 5-10 Yr Inflation — — 3.30% —
6/24/2022 New Home Sales 590k — 591k —
6/24/2022 New Home Sales MoM -0.20% — -16.60% —

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