June 22, 2022 Headlines

An overnight risk-off trade has global equities and oil prices lower, fueling a rally in the bond market that has Treasury yield 9-12 basis points lower across the curve. There doesn’t appear to be anything specific driving today’s rally other the same general recession fears that have emerged since the June 15 FOMC meeting. Oil prices are down more than 5% to start the day, and S&P 500 futures are down 1.6% ahead of the open (8:54am EDT). The big event for today will be Fed Chair Powell’s semi-annual testimony before the Senate Banking Committee, where he will likely be on the defensive on the Fed’s management of current inflation risks as well as its commitment to full employment while combating inflation. The MBA mortgage applications index rose for a second consecutive week. While the refi application index fell 3.1% last week, purchase applications were up 8%. The survey showed the average conventional 30-year fixed rate rising 33 basis points to 5.98%, the highest since 2008 and up 280 basis points from a year earlier.

Jason Haley
Chief Investment Officer

6/21/2022Chicago Fed Nat Activity Index0.470.010.470.4
6/21/2022Existing Home Sales5.40m5.41m5.61m5.60m
6/21/2022Existing Home Sales MoM-3.70%-3.40%-2.40%-2.60%
6/22/2022MBA Mortgage Applications4.20%6.60%
6/23/2022Current Account Balance-$275.0b-$217.9b
6/23/2022Initial Jobless Claims226k229k
6/23/2022Continuing Claims1320k1312k
6/23/2022S&P Global US Manufacturing PMI5657
6/23/2022S&P Global US Services PMI53.553.4
6/23/2022S&P Global US Composite PMI52.853.6
6/23/2022Kansas City Fed Manf. Activity1523
6/24/2022U. of Mich. Sentiment50.250.2
6/24/2022U. of Mich. Current Conditions55.455.4
6/24/2022U. of Mich. Expectations46.8
6/24/2022U. of Mich. 1 Yr Inflation5.40%
6/24/2022U. of Mich. 5-10 Yr Inflation3.30%
6/24/2022New Home Sales590k591k
6/24/2022New Home Sales MoM-0.20%-16.60%

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