June 8, 2022 Headlines

Treasury yields are drifting 1-3 basis points higher across the curve ahead of today’s 10-year auction and tomorrow’s ECB meeting, and U.S. equity futures are modestly lower ahead of the open. Higher interest rates have had a positive impact on defined benefit pensions in 2022. According to the Milliman 100 Pension Funding Index (PFI), which tracks the 100 largest U.S. corporate pension plans, the funded ratio rose to 107% in May, the 6th consecutive increase and fueled by higher discount rates. The OECD slashed its global growth forecasts amid stagflation worries. The organization now projects 3% growth for global GDP in 2022, down 1.5 points from its December forecast. The report points to the war in Ukraine and China’s zero-Covid policies as a “new set of adverse shocks.” In housing news, the MBA mortgage applications index fell another 6.5% last week, fueled by a 7.1% decline in purchase apps and a 5.6% decline in refi apps. The average conventional 30-year fixed rate rose 7 bps versus the prior week to 5.4%.
Jason Haley
Chief Investment Officer

Date Event Surv(M) Actual Prior Revised
06/07/22 Trade Balance -$89.5b -$87.1b -$109.8b -$107.7b
06/07/22 Revisions: Trade Balance
06/07/22 Consumer Credit $35.000b $38.069b $52.435b $47.340b
06/08/22 MBA Mortgage Applications -6.50% -2.30%
06/08/22 Wholesale Inventories MoM 2.10% 2.10%
06/08/22 Wholesale Trade Sales MoM 1.70%
06/09/22 Initial Jobless Claims 207k 200k
06/09/22 Continuing Claims 1305k 1309k
06/09/22 Bloomberg June United States Economic Survey
06/09/22 Household Change in Net Worth $5297b
06/10/22 CPI MoM 0.70% 0.30%
06/10/22 CPI Ex Food and Energy MoM 0.50% 0.60%
06/10/22 CPI YoY 8.20% 8.30%
06/10/22 CPI Ex Food and Energy YoY 5.90% 6.20%
06/10/22 CPI Index NSA 291.694 289.109
06/10/22 CPI Core Index SA 292.04 290.455
06/10/22 Real Avg Hourly Earning YoY -2.60%
06/10/22 Real Avg Weekly Earnings YoY -3.40%
06/10/22 U. of Mich. Sentiment 58.2 58.4
06/10/22 U. of Mich. Current Conditions 63 63.3
06/10/22 U. of Mich. Expectations 55.6 55.2
06/10/22 U. of Mich. 1 Yr Inflation 5.30% 5.30%
06/10/22 U. of Mich. 5-10 Yr Inflation 3.00%
06/10/22 Monthly Budget Statement -$147.5b $308.2b


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