Treasury yields are drifting 1-3 basis points higher across the curve ahead of today’s 10-year auction and tomorrow’s ECB meeting, and U.S. equity futures are modestly lower ahead of the open. Higher interest rates have had a positive impact on defined benefit pensions in 2022. According to the Milliman 100 Pension Funding Index (PFI), which tracks the 100 largest U.S. corporate pension plans, the funded ratio rose to 107% in May, the 6th consecutive increase and fueled by higher discount rates. The OECD slashed its global growth forecasts amid stagflation worries. The organization now projects 3% growth for global GDP in 2022, down 1.5 points from its December forecast. The report points to the war in Ukraine and China’s zero-Covid policies as a “new set of adverse shocks.” In housing news, the MBA mortgage applications index fell another 6.5% last week, fueled by a 7.1% decline in purchase apps and a 5.6% decline in refi apps. The average conventional 30-year fixed rate rose 7 bps versus the prior week to 5.4%.
Jason Haley
Chief Investment Officer
Date | Event | Surv(M) | Actual | Prior | Revised |
06/07/22 | Trade Balance | -$89.5b | -$87.1b | -$109.8b | -$107.7b |
06/07/22 | Revisions: Trade Balance | ||||
06/07/22 | Consumer Credit | $35.000b | $38.069b | $52.435b | $47.340b |
06/08/22 | MBA Mortgage Applications | — | -6.50% | -2.30% | — |
06/08/22 | Wholesale Inventories MoM | 2.10% | — | 2.10% | — |
06/08/22 | Wholesale Trade Sales MoM | — | — | 1.70% | — |
06/09/22 | Initial Jobless Claims | 207k | — | 200k | — |
06/09/22 | Continuing Claims | 1305k | — | 1309k | — |
06/09/22 | Bloomberg June United States Economic Survey | ||||
06/09/22 | Household Change in Net Worth | — | — | $5297b | — |
06/10/22 | CPI MoM | 0.70% | — | 0.30% | — |
06/10/22 | CPI Ex Food and Energy MoM | 0.50% | — | 0.60% | — |
06/10/22 | CPI YoY | 8.20% | — | 8.30% | — |
06/10/22 | CPI Ex Food and Energy YoY | 5.90% | — | 6.20% | — |
06/10/22 | CPI Index NSA | 291.694 | — | 289.109 | — |
06/10/22 | CPI Core Index SA | 292.04 | — | 290.455 | — |
06/10/22 | Real Avg Hourly Earning YoY | — | — | -2.60% | — |
06/10/22 | Real Avg Weekly Earnings YoY | — | — | -3.40% | — |
06/10/22 | U. of Mich. Sentiment | 58.2 | — | 58.4 | — |
06/10/22 | U. of Mich. Current Conditions | 63 | — | 63.3 | — |
06/10/22 | U. of Mich. Expectations | 55.6 | — | 55.2 | — |
06/10/22 | U. of Mich. 1 Yr Inflation | 5.30% | — | 5.30% | — |
06/10/22 | U. of Mich. 5-10 Yr Inflation | — | — | 3.00% | — |
06/10/22 | Monthly Budget Statement | -$147.5b | — | $308.2b | — |
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