October 1, 2021 Headlines

The Senate is poised to pass a continuing resolution this morning that would avoid a government shutdown before tonight’s deadline. S&P 500 futures are up 0.33% (8:25am ET) and Treasury yields are 1-2 basis points higher across the curve. The debt ceiling remains an outstanding issue that still must be resolved before the Treasury Department runs out of cash in the next few weeks, and Republicans are looking for Democrats to attach it to $3.5 trillion budget reconciliation plan. On that note, Senator Joe Manchin (D-WV) issued fresh criticisms against the size of the White House’s proposed plan, saying “I can’t support $3.5 trillion more in spending when we have already spent $5.4 trillion since last March.”  In a story that must be causing heartburn for Fed officials, a Bloomberg article this morning highlights a 11.5% year-over-year increase in rent prices in August according to a Zillow index, with some cities in Florida, Georgia, and Washington state seeing increases of more than 25%. 

Jason Haley
Chief Investment Officer

Date Event Surv(M) Actual Prior Revised
09/27/21 Durable Goods Orders 0.70% 1.80% -0.10% 0.50%
09/27/21 Durables Ex Transportation 0.50% 0.20% 0.80% —
09/27/21 Cap Goods Orders Nondef Ex Air 0.40% 0.50% 0.10% 0.30%
09/27/21 Cap Goods Ship Nondef Ex Air 0.50% 0.70% 0.90% —
09/27/21 Dallas Fed Manf. Activity 11 4.6 9 —
09/28/21 Advance Goods Trade Balance -$87.3b -$87.6b -$86.4b -$86.8b
09/28/21 Wholesale Inventories MoM 0.80% 1.20% 0.60% —
09/28/21 Retail Inventories MoM 0.50% 0.10% 0.40% —
09/28/21 FHFA House Price Index MoM 1.50% 1.40% 1.60% 1.70%
09/28/21 S&P CoreLogic CS 20-City MoM SA 1.70% 1.55% 1.77% 1.79%
09/28/21 S&P CoreLogic CS 20-City YoY NSA 20.00% 19.95% 19.08% 19.14%
09/28/21 S&P CoreLogic CS US HPI YoY NSA — 19.70% 18.61% 18.73%
09/28/21 Conf. Board Consumer Confidence 115 109.3 113.8 115.2
09/28/21 Conf. Board Present Situation — 143.4 147.3 148.9
09/28/21 Conf. Board Expectations — 86.6 91.4 92.8
09/28/21 Richmond Fed Manufact. Index 10 -3 9 —
09/29/21 MBA Mortgage Applications — -1.10% 4.90% —
09/29/21 Pending Home Sales MoM 1.40% 8.10% -1.80% -2.00%
09/29/21 Pending Home Sales NSA YoY -13.80% -6.30% -9.50% -9.60%
09/30/21 Initial Jobless Claims 330k 362k 351k —
09/30/21 Continuing Claims 2790k 2802k 2845k 2820k
09/30/21 GDP Annualized QoQ 6.60% 6.70% 6.60% —
09/30/21 Personal Consumption 11.90% 12.00% 11.90% —
09/30/21 GDP Price Index 6.10% 6.10% 6.10% —
09/30/21 Core PCE QoQ 6.10% 6.10% 6.10% —
09/30/21 Langer Consumer Comfort — 54.7 56.3 —
09/30/21 MNI Chicago PMI 65 64.7 66.8 —
10/01/21 Personal Income 0.20% 0.20% 1.10% —
10/01/21 Personal Spending 0.70% 0.80% 0.30% -0.10%
10/01/21 Real Personal Spending 0.40% 0.40% -0.10% -0.50%
10/01/21 PCE Deflator MoM 0.30% 0.40% 0.40% —
10/01/21 PCE Deflator YoY 4.20% 4.30% 4.20% —
10/01/21 PCE Core Deflator MoM 0.20% 0.30% 0.30% —
10/01/21 PCE Core Deflator YoY 3.50% 3.60% 3.60% —
10/01/21 Markit US Manufacturing PMI 60.5 — 60.5 —
10/01/21 U. of Mich. Sentiment 71 — 71 —
10/01/21 U. of Mich. Current Conditions 77.1 — 77.1 —
10/01/21 U. of Mich. Expectations 67.1 — 67.1 —
10/01/21 U. of Mich. 1 Yr Inflation 4.80% — 4.70% —
10/01/21 U. of Mich. 5-10 Yr Inflation — — 2.90% —
10/01/21 Construction Spending MoM 0.30% — 0.30% —
10/01/21 ISM Manufacturing 59.5 — 59.9 —
10/01/21 ISM Prices Paid 78.5 — 79.4 —
10/01/21 ISM New Orders 63.6 — 66.7 —
10/01/21 ISM Employment 50.2 — 49 —
10/01/21 Wards Total Vehicle Sales 13.00m — 13.06m —

 

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