October 1, 2021 Headlines

The Senate is poised to pass a continuing resolution this morning that would avoid a government shutdown before tonight’s deadline. S&P 500 futures are up 0.33% (8:25am ET) and Treasury yields are 1-2 basis points higher across the curve. The debt ceiling remains an outstanding issue that still must be resolved before the Treasury Department runs out of cash in the next few weeks, and Republicans are looking for Democrats to attach it to $3.5 trillion budget reconciliation plan. On that note, Senator Joe Manchin (D-WV) issued fresh criticisms against the size of the White House’s proposed plan, saying “I can’t support $3.5 trillion more in spending when we have already spent $5.4 trillion since last March.”  In a story that must be causing heartburn for Fed officials, a Bloomberg article this morning highlights a 11.5% year-over-year increase in rent prices in August according to a Zillow index, with some cities in Florida, Georgia, and Washington state seeing increases of more than 25%. 

Jason Haley
Chief Investment Officer

DateEventSurv(M)ActualPriorRevised
09/27/21Durable Goods Orders0.70%1.80%-0.10%0.50%
09/27/21Durables Ex Transportation0.50%0.20%0.80%
09/27/21Cap Goods Orders Nondef Ex Air0.40%0.50%0.10%0.30%
09/27/21Cap Goods Ship Nondef Ex Air0.50%0.70%0.90%
09/27/21Dallas Fed Manf. Activity114.69
09/28/21Advance Goods Trade Balance-$87.3b-$87.6b-$86.4b-$86.8b
09/28/21Wholesale Inventories MoM0.80%1.20%0.60%
09/28/21Retail Inventories MoM0.50%0.10%0.40%
09/28/21FHFA House Price Index MoM1.50%1.40%1.60%1.70%
09/28/21S&P CoreLogic CS 20-City MoM SA1.70%1.55%1.77%1.79%
09/28/21S&P CoreLogic CS 20-City YoY NSA20.00%19.95%19.08%19.14%
09/28/21S&P CoreLogic CS US HPI YoY NSA19.70%18.61%18.73%
09/28/21Conf. Board Consumer Confidence115109.3113.8115.2
09/28/21Conf. Board Present Situation143.4147.3148.9
09/28/21Conf. Board Expectations86.691.492.8
09/28/21Richmond Fed Manufact. Index10-39
09/29/21MBA Mortgage Applications-1.10%4.90%
09/29/21Pending Home Sales MoM1.40%8.10%-1.80%-2.00%
09/29/21Pending Home Sales NSA YoY-13.80%-6.30%-9.50%-9.60%
09/30/21Initial Jobless Claims330k362k351k
09/30/21Continuing Claims2790k2802k2845k2820k
09/30/21GDP Annualized QoQ6.60%6.70%6.60%
09/30/21Personal Consumption11.90%12.00%11.90%
09/30/21GDP Price Index6.10%6.10%6.10%
09/30/21Core PCE QoQ6.10%6.10%6.10%
09/30/21Langer Consumer Comfort54.756.3
09/30/21MNI Chicago PMI6564.766.8
10/01/21Personal Income0.20%0.20%1.10%
10/01/21Personal Spending0.70%0.80%0.30%-0.10%
10/01/21Real Personal Spending0.40%0.40%-0.10%-0.50%
10/01/21PCE Deflator MoM0.30%0.40%0.40%
10/01/21PCE Deflator YoY4.20%4.30%4.20%
10/01/21PCE Core Deflator MoM0.20%0.30%0.30%
10/01/21PCE Core Deflator YoY3.50%3.60%3.60%
10/01/21Markit US Manufacturing PMI60.560.5
10/01/21U. of Mich. Sentiment7171
10/01/21U. of Mich. Current Conditions77.177.1
10/01/21U. of Mich. Expectations67.167.1
10/01/21U. of Mich. 1 Yr Inflation4.80%4.70%
10/01/21U. of Mich. 5-10 Yr Inflation2.90%
10/01/21Construction Spending MoM0.30%0.30%
10/01/21ISM Manufacturing59.559.9
10/01/21ISM Prices Paid78.579.4
10/01/21ISM New Orders63.666.7
10/01/21ISM Employment50.249
10/01/21Wards Total Vehicle Sales13.00m13.06m

 

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