October 12, 2021 Headlines

The Treasury curve is twisting this morning, with short and intermediate yields higher and long-end yields lower, and equity index futures are pointing to a slightly higher open for U.S. stocks. The House is scheduled to vote today on a short-term debt ceiling extension passed by the Senate. The agreement would likely keep the government funded through early December, and it sets the stage for a contentious battle over the next two months regarding the White House’s tax and spending agenda. The September CPI report to be released tomorrow headlines this week’s economic calendar, along with the release of the minutes from the September 22 FOMC meeting. The latter may provide more insight into the internal debate within the committee as it relates to the aggressiveness of future policy changes.   

Jason Haley
Chief Investment Officer

10/12/21NFIB Small Business Optimism99.599.1100.1
10/12/21JOLTS Job Openings10954k10934k
10/13/21MBA Mortgage Applications-6.90%
10/13/21CPI MoM0.30%0.30%
10/13/21CPI Ex Food and Energy MoM0.20%0.10%
10/13/21CPI YoY5.30%5.30%
10/13/21CPI Ex Food and Energy YoY4.00%4.00%
10/13/21CPI Index NSA274.2273.567
10/13/21CPI Core Index SA280.004279.338
10/13/21Real Avg Hourly Earning YoY-0.90%-1.10%
10/13/21Real Avg Weekly Earnings YoY-0.90%-1.40%
10/13/21FOMC Meeting Minutes
10/14/21Initial Jobless Claims320k326k
10/14/21Continuing Claims2675k2714k
10/14/21PPI Final Demand MoM0.60%0.70%
10/14/21PPI Ex Food and Energy MoM0.50%0.60%
10/14/21PPI Ex Food, Energy, Trade MoM0.40%0.30%
10/14/21PPI Final Demand YoY8.70%8.30%
10/14/21PPI Ex Food and Energy YoY7.10%6.70%
10/14/21PPI Ex Food, Energy, Trade YoY6.40%6.30%
10/14/21Langer Consumer Comfort53.4
10/15/21Empire Manufacturing2534.3
10/15/21Retail Sales Advance MoM-0.20%0.70%
10/15/21Retail Sales Ex Auto MoM0.50%1.80%
10/15/21Retail Sales Ex Auto and Gas0.30%2.00%
10/15/21Retail Sales Control Group0.50%2.50%
10/15/21Import Price Index MoM0.60%-0.30%
10/15/21Import Price Index ex Petroleum MoM0.30%-0.10%
10/15/21Import Price Index YoY9.40%9.00%
10/15/21Export Price Index MoM0.70%0.40%
10/15/21Export Price Index YoY16.80%
10/15/21Bloomberg Oct. United States Economic Survey
10/15/21Business Inventories0.60%0.50%
10/15/21U. of Mich. Sentiment73.472.8
10/15/21U. of Mich. Current Conditions8280.1
10/15/21U. of Mich. Expectations70.368.1
10/15/21U. of Mich. 1 Yr Inflation4.70%4.60%
10/15/21U. of Mich. 5-10 Yr Inflation3.00%


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