October 12, 2021 Headlines

The Treasury curve is twisting this morning, with short and intermediate yields higher and long-end yields lower, and equity index futures are pointing to a slightly higher open for U.S. stocks. The House is scheduled to vote today on a short-term debt ceiling extension passed by the Senate. The agreement would likely keep the government funded through early December, and it sets the stage for a contentious battle over the next two months regarding the White House’s tax and spending agenda. The September CPI report to be released tomorrow headlines this week’s economic calendar, along with the release of the minutes from the September 22 FOMC meeting. The latter may provide more insight into the internal debate within the committee as it relates to the aggressiveness of future policy changes.   

Jason Haley
Chief Investment Officer

Date Event Surv(M) Actual Prior Revised
10/12/21 NFIB Small Business Optimism 99.5 99.1 100.1 —
10/12/21 JOLTS Job Openings 10954k — 10934k —
10/13/21 MBA Mortgage Applications — — -6.90% —
10/13/21 CPI MoM 0.30% — 0.30% —
10/13/21 CPI Ex Food and Energy MoM 0.20% — 0.10% —
10/13/21 CPI YoY 5.30% — 5.30% —
10/13/21 CPI Ex Food and Energy YoY 4.00% — 4.00% —
10/13/21 CPI Index NSA 274.2 — 273.567 —
10/13/21 CPI Core Index SA 280.004 — 279.338 —
10/13/21 Real Avg Hourly Earning YoY — — -0.90% -1.10%
10/13/21 Real Avg Weekly Earnings YoY — — -0.90% -1.40%
10/13/21 FOMC Meeting Minutes — — — —
10/14/21 Initial Jobless Claims 320k — 326k —
10/14/21 Continuing Claims 2675k — 2714k —
10/14/21 PPI Final Demand MoM 0.60% — 0.70% —
10/14/21 PPI Ex Food and Energy MoM 0.50% — 0.60% —
10/14/21 PPI Ex Food, Energy, Trade MoM 0.40% — 0.30% —
10/14/21 PPI Final Demand YoY 8.70% — 8.30% —
10/14/21 PPI Ex Food and Energy YoY 7.10% — 6.70% —
10/14/21 PPI Ex Food, Energy, Trade YoY 6.40% — 6.30% —
10/14/21 Langer Consumer Comfort — — 53.4 —
10/15/21 Empire Manufacturing 25 — 34.3 —
10/15/21 Retail Sales Advance MoM -0.20% — 0.70% —
10/15/21 Retail Sales Ex Auto MoM 0.50% — 1.80% —
10/15/21 Retail Sales Ex Auto and Gas 0.30% — 2.00% —
10/15/21 Retail Sales Control Group 0.50% — 2.50% —
10/15/21 Import Price Index MoM 0.60% — -0.30% —
10/15/21 Import Price Index ex Petroleum MoM 0.30% — -0.10% —
10/15/21 Import Price Index YoY 9.40% — 9.00% —
10/15/21 Export Price Index MoM 0.70% — 0.40% —
10/15/21 Export Price Index YoY — — 16.80% —
10/15/21 Bloomberg Oct. United States Economic Survey
10/15/21 Business Inventories 0.60% — 0.50% —
10/15/21 U. of Mich. Sentiment 73.4 — 72.8 —
10/15/21 U. of Mich. Current Conditions 82 — 80.1 —
10/15/21 U. of Mich. Expectations 70.3 — 68.1 —
10/15/21 U. of Mich. 1 Yr Inflation 4.70% — 4.60% —
10/15/21 U. of Mich. 5-10 Yr Inflation — — 3.00% —

 

Subscribe Today!

Subscribe to our email list and get the latest articles and announcements from ALM First.

Subscribe
ALM First offers investment advisory services through ALM First Financial Advisors, LLC, which is registered with the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (“SEC”). SEC registration does not constitute an endorsement of the firm by the SEC nor does it indicate that the firm has attained a particular level of skill or ability. The information contained herein does not constitute investment advice or a recommendation for you to purchase or sell any specific security. You are solely responsible for reviewing the content and for any actions you take or choose not to take based on your review of such content. Information contained herein was derived from third party sources as indicated. While such information is believed to be reliable, no representation or warranty is made concerning the accuracy of any information presented. We have not and will not independently verify this information. Where such sources include opinions and projections, such opinions and projections should be ascribed only to the applicable third party source and not to ALM First. Statements herein that reflect projections or expectations of future financial or economic performance are forward-looking statements. Such “forward-looking” statements are based on various assumptions, which assumptions may not prove to be correct. Accordingly, there can be no assurance that such assumptions and statements will accurately predict future events or actual performance. No representation or warranty can be given that the estimates, opinions or assumptions made herein will prove to be accurate. Any projections and forward-looking statements included herein should be considered speculative and are qualified in their entirety by the information and risks disclosed in the confidential offering document. Actual results for any period may or may not approximate such forward-looking statements. No representations or warranties whatsoever are made by ALM First Financial Advisors, LLC or any other person or entity as to the future profitability of investments recommended by ALM First Financial Advisors, LLC.