October 13, 2020 Headlines

Treasury yields are lower and flatter to start the holiday-shortened week. The action in U.S. bonds follows yesterday’s rally in German bonds, due in part to weak European economic data. S&P 500 futures are down 0.33% ahead of today’s open. The September CPI report released this morning was in line with expectations. Both headline and core inflation rose 0.2% over the month, and on year-over-year basis, core CPI held steady at 1.7%. Used car prices were once again a large contributor to overall inflation for the month (+6.7%), and without the gain in used car prices, CPI would have been closer to flat on the month. In other words, there is not much in terms of broad price inflation right now beyond used cars, which isn’t necessarily surprising.

Jason Haley
Chief Investment Officer

Date Event Survey Actual Prior Revised
10/13/20 NFIB Small Business Optimism 100.9 104 100.2
10/13/20 CPI MoM 0.20% 0.20% 0.40%
10/13/20 CPI Ex Food and Energy MoM 0.20% 0.20% 0.40%
10/13/20 CPI YoY 1.40% 1.40% 1.30%
10/13/20 CPI Ex Food and Energy YoY 1.70% 1.70% 1.70%
10/13/20 CPI Index NSA 260.327 260.28 259.92
10/13/20 CPI Core Index SA 269.341 269.26 268.75
10/13/20 Real Avg Weekly Earnings YoY 4.10% 3.90% 3.80%
10/13/20 Real Avg Hourly Earning YoY 3.30% 3.30% 3.20%
10/13/20-10/16/20 Monthly Budget Statement -$124.0b $82.8b
10/14/20 MBA Mortgage Applications 4.60%
10/14/20 PPI Final Demand MoM 0.20% 0.30%
10/14/20 PPI Ex Food and Energy MoM 0.20% 0.40%
10/14/20 PPI Ex Food, Energy, Trade MoM 0.20% 0.30%
10/14/20 PPI Final Demand YoY 0.20% -0.20%
10/14/20 PPI Ex Food and Energy YoY 0.90% 0.60%
10/14/20 PPI Ex Food, Energy, Trade YoY 0.50% 0.30%
10/15/20 Empire Manufacturing 14 17
10/15/20 Initial Jobless Claims 825k 840k
10/15/20 Continuing Claims 10550k 10976k
10/15/20 Import Price Index MoM 0.30% 0.90%
10/15/20 Import Price Index ex Petroleum MoM 0.50% 0.70%
10/15/20 Import Price Index YoY -1.20% -1.40%
10/15/20 Export Price Index MoM 0.30% 0.50%
10/15/20 Export Price Index YoY -2.80%
10/15/20 Philadelphia Fed Business Outlook 14.3 15
10/15/20 Bloomberg Consumer Comfort 48
10/16/20 Retail Sales Advance MoM 0.80% 0.60%
10/16/20 Retail Sales Ex Auto MoM 0.40% 0.70%
10/16/20 Retail Sales Ex Auto and Gas 0.50% 0.70%
10/16/20 Retail Sales Control Group 0.30% -0.10%
10/16/20 Industrial Production MoM 0.60% 0.40%
10/16/20 Capacity Utilization 71.80% 71.40%
10/16/20 Manufacturing (SIC) Production 0.60% 1.00%
10/16/20 Business Inventories 0.40% 0.10%
10/16/20 U. of Mich. Sentiment 80.5 80.4
10/16/20 U. of Mich. Current Conditions 88.5 87.8
10/16/20 U. of Mich. Expectations 77 75.6
10/16/20 U. of Mich. 1 Yr Inflation 2.60%
10/16/20 U. of Mich. 5-10 Yr Inflation 2.70%
10/16/20 Net Long-term TIC Flows $10.8b
10/16/20 Total Net TIC Flows -$88.7b



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