October 13, 2020 Headlines

Treasury yields are lower and flatter to start the holiday-shortened week. The action in U.S. bonds follows yesterday’s rally in German bonds, due in part to weak European economic data. S&P 500 futures are down 0.33% ahead of today’s open. The September CPI report released this morning was in line with expectations. Both headline and core inflation rose 0.2% over the month, and on year-over-year basis, core CPI held steady at 1.7%. Used car prices were once again a large contributor to overall inflation for the month (+6.7%), and without the gain in used car prices, CPI would have been closer to flat on the month. In other words, there is not much in terms of broad price inflation right now beyond used cars, which isn’t necessarily surprising.

Jason Haley
Chief Investment Officer

DateEventSurveyActualPriorRevised
10/13/20NFIB Small Business Optimism100.9104100.2
10/13/20CPI MoM0.20%0.20%0.40%
10/13/20CPI Ex Food and Energy MoM0.20%0.20%0.40%
10/13/20CPI YoY1.40%1.40%1.30%
10/13/20CPI Ex Food and Energy YoY1.70%1.70%1.70%
10/13/20CPI Index NSA260.327260.28259.92
10/13/20CPI Core Index SA269.341269.26268.75
10/13/20Real Avg Weekly Earnings YoY4.10%3.90%3.80%
10/13/20Real Avg Hourly Earning YoY3.30%3.30%3.20%
10/13/20-10/16/20Monthly Budget Statement-$124.0b$82.8b
10/14/20MBA Mortgage Applications4.60%
10/14/20PPI Final Demand MoM0.20%0.30%
10/14/20PPI Ex Food and Energy MoM0.20%0.40%
10/14/20PPI Ex Food, Energy, Trade MoM0.20%0.30%
10/14/20PPI Final Demand YoY0.20%-0.20%
10/14/20PPI Ex Food and Energy YoY0.90%0.60%
10/14/20PPI Ex Food, Energy, Trade YoY0.50%0.30%
10/15/20Empire Manufacturing1417
10/15/20Initial Jobless Claims825k840k
10/15/20Continuing Claims10550k10976k
10/15/20Import Price Index MoM0.30%0.90%
10/15/20Import Price Index ex Petroleum MoM0.50%0.70%
10/15/20Import Price Index YoY-1.20%-1.40%
10/15/20Export Price Index MoM0.30%0.50%
10/15/20Export Price Index YoY-2.80%
10/15/20Philadelphia Fed Business Outlook14.315
10/15/20Bloomberg Consumer Comfort48
10/16/20Retail Sales Advance MoM0.80%0.60%
10/16/20Retail Sales Ex Auto MoM0.40%0.70%
10/16/20Retail Sales Ex Auto and Gas0.50%0.70%
10/16/20Retail Sales Control Group0.30%-0.10%
10/16/20Industrial Production MoM0.60%0.40%
10/16/20Capacity Utilization71.80%71.40%
10/16/20Manufacturing (SIC) Production0.60%1.00%
10/16/20Business Inventories0.40%0.10%
10/16/20U. of Mich. Sentiment80.580.4
10/16/20U. of Mich. Current Conditions88.587.8
10/16/20U. of Mich. Expectations7775.6
10/16/20U. of Mich. 1 Yr Inflation2.60%
10/16/20U. of Mich. 5-10 Yr Inflation2.70%
10/16/20Net Long-term TIC Flows$10.8b
10/16/20Total Net TIC Flows-$88.7b

 

 

Subscribe Today!

Subscribe to our email list and get the latest articles and announcements from ALM First.

Recent Articles

ALM First offers investment advisory services through ALM First Financial Advisors, LLC, which is registered with the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (“SEC”). SEC registration does not constitute an endorsement of the firm by the SEC nor does it indicate that the firm has attained a particular level of skill or ability. The information contained herein does not constitute investment advice or a recommendation for you to purchase or sell any specific security. You are solely responsible for reviewing the content and for any actions you take or choose not to take based on your review of such content.Information contained herein was derived from third party sources as indicated. While such information is believed to be reliable, no representation or warranty is made concerning the accuracy of any information presented. We have not and will not independently verify this information. Where such sources include opinions and projections, such opinions and projections should be ascribed only to the applicable third party source and not to ALM First.Statements herein that reflect projections or expectations of future financial or economic performance are forward-looking statements. Such “forward-looking” statements are based on various assumptions, which assumptions may not prove to be correct. Accordingly, there can be no assurance that such assumptions and statements will accurately predict future events or actual performance. No representation or warranty can be given that the estimates, opinions or assumptions made herein will prove to be accurate. Any projections and forward-looking statements included herein should be considered speculative and are qualified in their entirety by the information and risks disclosed in the confidential offering document. Actual results for any period may or may not approximate such forward-looking statements. No representations or warranties whatsoever are made by ALM First Financial Advisors, LLC or any other person or entity as to the future profitability of investments recommended by ALM First Financial Advisors, LLC.