October 13, 2020 Headlines

Treasury yields are lower and flatter to start the holiday-shortened week. The action in U.S. bonds follows yesterday’s rally in German bonds, due in part to weak European economic data. S&P 500 futures are down 0.33% ahead of today’s open. The September CPI report released this morning was in line with expectations. Both headline and core inflation rose 0.2% over the month, and on year-over-year basis, core CPI held steady at 1.7%. Used car prices were once again a large contributor to overall inflation for the month (+6.7%), and without the gain in used car prices, CPI would have been closer to flat on the month. In other words, there is not much in terms of broad price inflation right now beyond used cars, which isn’t necessarily surprising.

Jason Haley
Chief Investment Officer

10/13/20NFIB Small Business Optimism100.9104100.2
10/13/20CPI MoM0.20%0.20%0.40%
10/13/20CPI Ex Food and Energy MoM0.20%0.20%0.40%
10/13/20CPI YoY1.40%1.40%1.30%
10/13/20CPI Ex Food and Energy YoY1.70%1.70%1.70%
10/13/20CPI Index NSA260.327260.28259.92
10/13/20CPI Core Index SA269.341269.26268.75
10/13/20Real Avg Weekly Earnings YoY4.10%3.90%3.80%
10/13/20Real Avg Hourly Earning YoY3.30%3.30%3.20%
10/13/20-10/16/20Monthly Budget Statement-$124.0b$82.8b
10/14/20MBA Mortgage Applications4.60%
10/14/20PPI Final Demand MoM0.20%0.30%
10/14/20PPI Ex Food and Energy MoM0.20%0.40%
10/14/20PPI Ex Food, Energy, Trade MoM0.20%0.30%
10/14/20PPI Final Demand YoY0.20%-0.20%
10/14/20PPI Ex Food and Energy YoY0.90%0.60%
10/14/20PPI Ex Food, Energy, Trade YoY0.50%0.30%
10/15/20Empire Manufacturing1417
10/15/20Initial Jobless Claims825k840k
10/15/20Continuing Claims10550k10976k
10/15/20Import Price Index MoM0.30%0.90%
10/15/20Import Price Index ex Petroleum MoM0.50%0.70%
10/15/20Import Price Index YoY-1.20%-1.40%
10/15/20Export Price Index MoM0.30%0.50%
10/15/20Export Price Index YoY-2.80%
10/15/20Philadelphia Fed Business Outlook14.315
10/15/20Bloomberg Consumer Comfort48
10/16/20Retail Sales Advance MoM0.80%0.60%
10/16/20Retail Sales Ex Auto MoM0.40%0.70%
10/16/20Retail Sales Ex Auto and Gas0.50%0.70%
10/16/20Retail Sales Control Group0.30%-0.10%
10/16/20Industrial Production MoM0.60%0.40%
10/16/20Capacity Utilization71.80%71.40%
10/16/20Manufacturing (SIC) Production0.60%1.00%
10/16/20Business Inventories0.40%0.10%
10/16/20U. of Mich. Sentiment80.580.4
10/16/20U. of Mich. Current Conditions88.587.8
10/16/20U. of Mich. Expectations7775.6
10/16/20U. of Mich. 1 Yr Inflation2.60%
10/16/20U. of Mich. 5-10 Yr Inflation2.70%
10/16/20Net Long-term TIC Flows$10.8b
10/16/20Total Net TIC Flows-$88.7b



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