Treasury yields are lower and flatter to start the holiday-shortened week. The action in U.S. bonds follows yesterday’s rally in German bonds, due in part to weak European economic data. S&P 500 futures are down 0.33% ahead of today’s open. The September CPI report released this morning was in line with expectations. Both headline and core inflation rose 0.2% over the month, and on year-over-year basis, core CPI held steady at 1.7%. Used car prices were once again a large contributor to overall inflation for the month (+6.7%), and without the gain in used car prices, CPI would have been closer to flat on the month. In other words, there is not much in terms of broad price inflation right now beyond used cars, which isn’t necessarily surprising.
Jason Haley
Chief Investment Officer
Date | Event | Survey | Actual | Prior | Revised |
10/13/20 | NFIB Small Business Optimism | 100.9 | 104 | 100.2 | — |
10/13/20 | CPI MoM | 0.20% | 0.20% | 0.40% | — |
10/13/20 | CPI Ex Food and Energy MoM | 0.20% | 0.20% | 0.40% | — |
10/13/20 | CPI YoY | 1.40% | 1.40% | 1.30% | — |
10/13/20 | CPI Ex Food and Energy YoY | 1.70% | 1.70% | 1.70% | — |
10/13/20 | CPI Index NSA | 260.327 | 260.28 | 259.92 | — |
10/13/20 | CPI Core Index SA | 269.341 | 269.26 | 268.75 | — |
10/13/20 | Real Avg Weekly Earnings YoY | — | 4.10% | 3.90% | 3.80% |
10/13/20 | Real Avg Hourly Earning YoY | — | 3.30% | 3.30% | 3.20% |
10/13/20-10/16/20 | Monthly Budget Statement | -$124.0b | — | $82.8b | — |
10/14/20 | MBA Mortgage Applications | — | — | 4.60% | — |
10/14/20 | PPI Final Demand MoM | 0.20% | — | 0.30% | — |
10/14/20 | PPI Ex Food and Energy MoM | 0.20% | — | 0.40% | — |
10/14/20 | PPI Ex Food, Energy, Trade MoM | 0.20% | — | 0.30% | — |
10/14/20 | PPI Final Demand YoY | 0.20% | — | -0.20% | — |
10/14/20 | PPI Ex Food and Energy YoY | 0.90% | — | 0.60% | — |
10/14/20 | PPI Ex Food, Energy, Trade YoY | 0.50% | — | 0.30% | — |
10/15/20 | Empire Manufacturing | 14 | — | 17 | — |
10/15/20 | Initial Jobless Claims | 825k | — | 840k | — |
10/15/20 | Continuing Claims | 10550k | — | 10976k | — |
10/15/20 | Import Price Index MoM | 0.30% | — | 0.90% | — |
10/15/20 | Import Price Index ex Petroleum MoM | 0.50% | — | 0.70% | — |
10/15/20 | Import Price Index YoY | -1.20% | — | -1.40% | — |
10/15/20 | Export Price Index MoM | 0.30% | — | 0.50% | — |
10/15/20 | Export Price Index YoY | — | — | -2.80% | — |
10/15/20 | Philadelphia Fed Business Outlook | 14.3 | — | 15 | — |
10/15/20 | Bloomberg Consumer Comfort | — | — | 48 | — |
10/16/20 | Retail Sales Advance MoM | 0.80% | — | 0.60% | — |
10/16/20 | Retail Sales Ex Auto MoM | 0.40% | — | 0.70% | — |
10/16/20 | Retail Sales Ex Auto and Gas | 0.50% | — | 0.70% | — |
10/16/20 | Retail Sales Control Group | 0.30% | — | -0.10% | — |
10/16/20 | Industrial Production MoM | 0.60% | — | 0.40% | — |
10/16/20 | Capacity Utilization | 71.80% | — | 71.40% | — |
10/16/20 | Manufacturing (SIC) Production | 0.60% | — | 1.00% | — |
10/16/20 | Business Inventories | 0.40% | — | 0.10% | — |
10/16/20 | U. of Mich. Sentiment | 80.5 | — | 80.4 | — |
10/16/20 | U. of Mich. Current Conditions | 88.5 | — | 87.8 | — |
10/16/20 | U. of Mich. Expectations | 77 | — | 75.6 | — |
10/16/20 | U. of Mich. 1 Yr Inflation | — | — | 2.60% | — |
10/16/20 | U. of Mich. 5-10 Yr Inflation | — | — | 2.70% | — |
10/16/20 | Net Long-term TIC Flows | — | — | $10.8b | — |
10/16/20 | Total Net TIC Flows | — | — | -$88.7b | — |
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