October 19, 2021 Headlines

Treasuries are little changed to start the day, with a modest reversal of yesterday’s bear steepening trade. Inflation and Fed rate policy expectations have dominated trading activity in recent days/weeks, and the increase in short/intermediate rates is largely the result of the market pricing earlier and more aggressive rate hikes than previously expected from the Fed and European policymakers. There are a couple of articles pushing back on that mindset today. A Bloomberg article (“Fed Staff Says Wall Street Is Getting Inflation Call Wrong”) highlights the historical prowess of the Fed’s 400+ staff economists relative to private market forecasters, noting that Fed economists are currently projecting inflation to fall in 2022 as supply issues subside. Separately, Bank of France governor and ECB governing council member Francois Villeroy de Galhau said there is no reason for the ECB to raise rates in 2022 based on his expectation for inflation to fall back below 2% by the end of next year. His comments present a contrast to more hawkish statements by other governing council members in recent weeks suggesting that 2022 rate hikes will be necessary. Several other central bank leaders from the Fed, BoE, and ECB are scheduled to speak this week.

Jason Haley
Chief Investment Officer

Date Event Surv(M) Actual Prior Revised
10/18/21 Industrial Production MoM 0.10% -1.30% 0.40% -0.10%
10/18/21 Capacity Utilization 76.40% 75.20% 76.40% 76.20%
10/18/21 Manufacturing (SIC) Production 0.10% -0.70% 0.20% -0.40%
10/18/21 NAHB Housing Market Index 75 80 76 —
10/18/21 Total Net TIC Flows — $91.0b $126.0b $164.1b
10/18/21 Net Long-term TIC Flows — $79.3b $2.0b —
10/19/21 Housing Starts 1615k 1555k 1615k 1580k
10/19/21 Building Permits 1680k 1589k 1728k 1721k
10/19/21 Housing Starts MoM 0.00% -1.60% 3.90% 1.20%
10/19/21 Building Permits MoM -2.40% -7.70% 6.00% 5.60%
10/20/21 MBA Mortgage Applications — — 0.20% —
10/20/21 U.S. Federal Reserve Releases Beige Book
10/20/21-10/22/21 Monthly Budget Statement -$59.0b — -$124.6b —
10/21/21 Initial Jobless Claims 297k — 293k —
10/21/21 Continuing Claims 2548k — 2593k —
10/21/21 Philadelphia Fed Business Outlook 25 — 30.7 —
10/21/21 Langer Consumer Comfort — — 51.2 —
10/21/21 Leading Index 0.40% — 0.90% —
10/21/21 Existing Home Sales 6.09m — 5.88m —
10/21/21 Existing Home Sales MoM 3.60% — -2.00% —
10/22/21 Markit US Manufacturing PMI 60.5 — 60.7 —
10/22/21 Markit US Services PMI 55.2 — 54.9 —
10/22/21 Markit US Composite PMI — — 55 —

 

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