October 20, 2021 Headlines

Treasury prices are a bit higher across the curve to start the day, and U.S. equity index futures are little changed ahead of the open. One of the most hawkish policymakers at the ECB – German central bank chief Jens Weidmann – is stepping down for personal reasons at the end of this year at a time where inflation hawks and doves will be debating 2022 policy decisions. Two Fed governors made relatively hawkish statements at separate events yesterday. Governor Christopher Waller acknowledged that rate hikes may be necessary in 2022 if inflation readings continue to run hot, and Governor Michelle Bowman expressed concern that inflation could last “a bit longer than we may have expected even a few months ago.” These comments from both Fed leaders are a bit more noteworthy because, to this point, almost all of the more hawkish rhetoric has come from regional Fed presidents. Lastly, the mortgage application activity fell 6.3% last week according to the Mortgage Bankers Association’s weekly survey index. Refinance applications fell 7.1% over the week, while purchase applications fell 4.9%. The average 30-year and 15-year fixed mortgage rates rose 0.05% and 0.06%, respectively.

Jason Haley
Chief Investment Officer

10/18/21Industrial Production MoM0.10%-1.30%0.40%-0.10%
10/18/21Capacity Utilization76.40%75.20%76.40%76.20%
10/18/21Manufacturing (SIC) Production0.10%-0.70%0.20%-0.40%
10/18/21NAHB Housing Market Index758076
10/18/21Total Net TIC Flows$91.0b$126.0b$164.1b
10/18/21Net Long-term TIC Flows$79.3b$2.0b
10/19/21Housing Starts1615k1555k1615k1580k
10/19/21Building Permits1680k1589k1728k1721k
10/19/21Housing Starts MoM0.00%-1.60%3.90%1.20%
10/19/21Building Permits MoM-2.40%-7.70%6.00%5.60%
10/20/21MBA Mortgage Applications-6.30%0.20%
10/20/21U.S. Federal Reserve Releases Beige Book
10/20/21-10/22/21Monthly Budget Statement-$59.0b-$124.6b
10/21/21Initial Jobless Claims297k293k
10/21/21Continuing Claims2548k2593k
10/21/21Philadelphia Fed Business Outlook2530.7
10/21/21Langer Consumer Comfort51.2
10/21/21Leading Index0.40%0.90%
10/21/21Existing Home Sales6.09m5.88m
10/21/21Existing Home Sales MoM3.60%-2.00%
10/22/21Markit US Manufacturing PMI60.560.7
10/22/21Markit US Services PMI55.254.9
10/22/21Markit US Composite PMI55


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