October 20, 2021 Headlines

Treasury prices are a bit higher across the curve to start the day, and U.S. equity index futures are little changed ahead of the open. One of the most hawkish policymakers at the ECB – German central bank chief Jens Weidmann – is stepping down for personal reasons at the end of this year at a time where inflation hawks and doves will be debating 2022 policy decisions. Two Fed governors made relatively hawkish statements at separate events yesterday. Governor Christopher Waller acknowledged that rate hikes may be necessary in 2022 if inflation readings continue to run hot, and Governor Michelle Bowman expressed concern that inflation could last “a bit longer than we may have expected even a few months ago.” These comments from both Fed leaders are a bit more noteworthy because, to this point, almost all of the more hawkish rhetoric has come from regional Fed presidents. Lastly, the mortgage application activity fell 6.3% last week according to the Mortgage Bankers Association’s weekly survey index. Refinance applications fell 7.1% over the week, while purchase applications fell 4.9%. The average 30-year and 15-year fixed mortgage rates rose 0.05% and 0.06%, respectively.

Jason Haley
Chief Investment Officer

Date	Event	Surv(M)	Actual	Prior	Revised
10/18/21	Industrial Production MoM	0.10%	-1.30%	0.40%	-0.10%
10/18/21	Capacity Utilization	76.40%	75.20%	76.40%	76.20%
10/18/21	Manufacturing (SIC) Production	0.10%	-0.70%	0.20%	-0.40%
10/18/21	NAHB Housing Market Index	75	80	76	—
10/18/21	Total Net TIC Flows	—	$91.0b	$126.0b	$164.1b
10/18/21	Net Long-term TIC Flows	—	$79.3b	$2.0b	—
10/19/21	Housing Starts	1615k	1555k	1615k	1580k
10/19/21	Building Permits	1680k	1589k	1728k	1721k
10/19/21	Housing Starts MoM	0.00%	-1.60%	3.90%	1.20%
10/19/21	Building Permits MoM	-2.40%	-7.70%	6.00%	5.60%
10/20/21	MBA Mortgage Applications	—	-6.30%	0.20%	—
10/20/21	U.S. Federal Reserve Releases Beige Book
10/20/21-10/22/21	Monthly Budget Statement	-$59.0b	—	-$124.6b	—
10/21/21	Initial Jobless Claims	297k	—	293k	—
10/21/21	Continuing Claims	2548k	—	2593k	—
10/21/21	Philadelphia Fed Business Outlook	25	—	30.7	—
10/21/21	Langer Consumer Comfort	—	—	51.2	—
10/21/21	Leading Index	0.40%	—	0.90%	—
10/21/21	Existing Home Sales	6.09m	—	5.88m	—
10/21/21	Existing Home Sales MoM	3.60%	—	-2.00%	—
10/22/21	Markit US Manufacturing PMI	60.5	—	60.7	—
10/22/21	Markit US Services PMI	55.2	—	54.9	—
10/22/21	Markit US Composite PMI	—	—	55	—

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