October 20, 2021 Headlines

Treasury prices are a bit higher across the curve to start the day, and U.S. equity index futures are little changed ahead of the open. One of the most hawkish policymakers at the ECB – German central bank chief Jens Weidmann – is stepping down for personal reasons at the end of this year at a time where inflation hawks and doves will be debating 2022 policy decisions. Two Fed governors made relatively hawkish statements at separate events yesterday. Governor Christopher Waller acknowledged that rate hikes may be necessary in 2022 if inflation readings continue to run hot, and Governor Michelle Bowman expressed concern that inflation could last “a bit longer than we may have expected even a few months ago.” These comments from both Fed leaders are a bit more noteworthy because, to this point, almost all of the more hawkish rhetoric has come from regional Fed presidents. Lastly, the mortgage application activity fell 6.3% last week according to the Mortgage Bankers Association’s weekly survey index. Refinance applications fell 7.1% over the week, while purchase applications fell 4.9%. The average 30-year and 15-year fixed mortgage rates rose 0.05% and 0.06%, respectively.

Jason Haley
Chief Investment Officer

Date Event Surv(M) Actual Prior Revised
10/18/21 Industrial Production MoM 0.10% -1.30% 0.40% -0.10%
10/18/21 Capacity Utilization 76.40% 75.20% 76.40% 76.20%
10/18/21 Manufacturing (SIC) Production 0.10% -0.70% 0.20% -0.40%
10/18/21 NAHB Housing Market Index 75 80 76
10/18/21 Total Net TIC Flows $91.0b $126.0b $164.1b
10/18/21 Net Long-term TIC Flows $79.3b $2.0b
10/19/21 Housing Starts 1615k 1555k 1615k 1580k
10/19/21 Building Permits 1680k 1589k 1728k 1721k
10/19/21 Housing Starts MoM 0.00% -1.60% 3.90% 1.20%
10/19/21 Building Permits MoM -2.40% -7.70% 6.00% 5.60%
10/20/21 MBA Mortgage Applications -6.30% 0.20%
10/20/21 U.S. Federal Reserve Releases Beige Book
10/20/21-10/22/21 Monthly Budget Statement -$59.0b -$124.6b
10/21/21 Initial Jobless Claims 297k 293k
10/21/21 Continuing Claims 2548k 2593k
10/21/21 Philadelphia Fed Business Outlook 25 30.7
10/21/21 Langer Consumer Comfort 51.2
10/21/21 Leading Index 0.40% 0.90%
10/21/21 Existing Home Sales 6.09m 5.88m
10/21/21 Existing Home Sales MoM 3.60% -2.00%
10/22/21 Markit US Manufacturing PMI 60.5 60.7
10/22/21 Markit US Services PMI 55.2 54.9
10/22/21 Markit US Composite PMI 55


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