October 26, 2020 Headlines

Rising Covid cases in Europe and the U.S., as well as the lack of new fiscal aid from Congress, are weighing on risk assets this morning (S&P 500 futures -1%), and Treasury yields are lower and flatter. In positive news, AstraZeneca says that its Covid vaccine produces an immune response in both young and elderly adults, raising hopes that an effective vaccine may be available in the first half of 2021. This week’s economic calendar is headlined by the advance estimate of Q3 GDP on Thursday. The Bloomberg median economist survey for Q3 growth is 31.9%. September inflation data (PCE) will be released on Thursday, and September durable goods orders will be released tomorrow, which will provide an update on business investment.

Jason Haley
Chief Investment Officer

10/26/20Chicago Fed Nat Activity Index0.730.270.791.11
10/26/20New Home Sales1025k1011k
10/26/20New Home Sales MoM1.40%4.80%
10/26/20Dallas Fed Manf. Activity13.513.6
10/27/20Durable Goods Orders0.50%0.50%
10/27/20Durables Ex Transportation0.30%0.60%
10/27/20Cap Goods Orders Nondef Ex Air0.50%1.90%
10/27/20Cap Goods Ship Nondef Ex Air0.50%1.50%
10/27/20FHFA House Price Index MoM0.70%1.00%
10/27/20S&P CoreLogic CS 20-City MoM SA0.50%0.55%
10/27/20S&P CoreLogic CS 20-City YoY NSA4.20%3.95%
10/27/20S&P CoreLogic CS 20-City NSA Index226.55
10/27/20S&P CoreLogic CS US HPI YoY NSA4.78%
10/27/20S&P CoreLogic CS US HPI NSA Index221.64
10/27/20Conf. Board Consumer Confidence102101.8
10/27/20Conf. Board Present Situation98.5
10/27/20Conf. Board Expectations104
10/27/20Richmond Fed Manufact. Index1721
10/28/20MBA Mortgage Applications-0.60%
10/28/20Advance Goods Trade Balance-$84.5b-$82.9b
10/28/20Wholesale Inventories MoM0.40%0.40%
10/28/20Retail Inventories MoM0.40%0.80%
10/29/20Initial Jobless Claims775k787k
10/29/20Continuing Claims7700k8373k
10/29/20GDP Annualized QoQ31.90%-31.40%
10/29/20Personal Consumption38.90%-33.20%
10/29/20GDP Price Index2.90%-1.80%
10/29/20Core PCE QoQ4.00%-0.80%
10/29/20Bloomberg Consumer Comfort46.6
10/29/20Pending Home Sales MoM3.00%8.80%
10/29/20Pending Home Sales NSA YoY20.50%
10/30/20Personal Income0.30%-2.70%
10/30/20Personal Spending1.00%1.00%
10/30/20Real Personal Spending0.80%0.70%
10/30/20PCE Deflator MoM0.20%0.30%
10/30/20PCE Deflator YoY1.50%1.40%
10/30/20PCE Core Deflator MoM0.20%0.30%
10/30/20Employment Cost Index0.50%0.50%
10/30/20PCE Core Deflator YoY1.70%1.60%
10/30/20MNI Chicago PMI5862.4
10/30/20U. of Mich. Sentiment81.281.2
10/30/20U. of Mich. Current Conditions84.9
10/30/20U. of Mich. Expectations78.8
10/30/20U. of Mich. 1 Yr Inflation2.70%
10/30/20U. of Mich. 5-10 Yr Inflation2.40%



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