October 26, 2020 Headlines

Rising Covid cases in Europe and the U.S., as well as the lack of new fiscal aid from Congress, are weighing on risk assets this morning (S&P 500 futures -1%), and Treasury yields are lower and flatter. In positive news, AstraZeneca says that its Covid vaccine produces an immune response in both young and elderly adults, raising hopes that an effective vaccine may be available in the first half of 2021. This week’s economic calendar is headlined by the advance estimate of Q3 GDP on Thursday. The Bloomberg median economist survey for Q3 growth is 31.9%. September inflation data (PCE) will be released on Thursday, and September durable goods orders will be released tomorrow, which will provide an update on business investment.

Jason Haley
Chief Investment Officer

Date Event Survey Actual Prior Revised
10/26/20 Chicago Fed Nat Activity Index 0.73 0.27 0.79 1.11
10/26/20 New Home Sales 1025k 1011k
10/26/20 New Home Sales MoM 1.40% 4.80%
10/26/20 Dallas Fed Manf. Activity 13.5 13.6
10/27/20 Durable Goods Orders 0.50% 0.50%
10/27/20 Durables Ex Transportation 0.30% 0.60%
10/27/20 Cap Goods Orders Nondef Ex Air 0.50% 1.90%
10/27/20 Cap Goods Ship Nondef Ex Air 0.50% 1.50%
10/27/20 FHFA House Price Index MoM 0.70% 1.00%
10/27/20 S&P CoreLogic CS 20-City MoM SA 0.50% 0.55%
10/27/20 S&P CoreLogic CS 20-City YoY NSA 4.20% 3.95%
10/27/20 S&P CoreLogic CS 20-City NSA Index 226.55
10/27/20 S&P CoreLogic CS US HPI YoY NSA 4.78%
10/27/20 S&P CoreLogic CS US HPI NSA Index 221.64
10/27/20 Conf. Board Consumer Confidence 102 101.8
10/27/20 Conf. Board Present Situation 98.5
10/27/20 Conf. Board Expectations 104
10/27/20 Richmond Fed Manufact. Index 17 21
10/28/20 MBA Mortgage Applications -0.60%
10/28/20 Advance Goods Trade Balance -$84.5b -$82.9b
10/28/20 Wholesale Inventories MoM 0.40% 0.40%
10/28/20 Retail Inventories MoM 0.40% 0.80%
10/29/20 Initial Jobless Claims 775k 787k
10/29/20 Continuing Claims 7700k 8373k
10/29/20 GDP Annualized QoQ 31.90% -31.40%
10/29/20 Personal Consumption 38.90% -33.20%
10/29/20 GDP Price Index 2.90% -1.80%
10/29/20 Core PCE QoQ 4.00% -0.80%
10/29/20 Bloomberg Consumer Comfort 46.6
10/29/20 Pending Home Sales MoM 3.00% 8.80%
10/29/20 Pending Home Sales NSA YoY 20.50%
10/30/20 Personal Income 0.30% -2.70%
10/30/20 Personal Spending 1.00% 1.00%
10/30/20 Real Personal Spending 0.80% 0.70%
10/30/20 PCE Deflator MoM 0.20% 0.30%
10/30/20 PCE Deflator YoY 1.50% 1.40%
10/30/20 PCE Core Deflator MoM 0.20% 0.30%
10/30/20 Employment Cost Index 0.50% 0.50%
10/30/20 PCE Core Deflator YoY 1.70% 1.60%
10/30/20 MNI Chicago PMI 58 62.4
10/30/20 U. of Mich. Sentiment 81.2 81.2
10/30/20 U. of Mich. Current Conditions 84.9
10/30/20 U. of Mich. Expectations 78.8
10/30/20 U. of Mich. 1 Yr Inflation 2.70%
10/30/20 U. of Mich. 5-10 Yr Inflation 2.40%



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