October 29, 2020 Headlines

Both Treasuries and U.S. equity futures are little changed in the immediate wake of this morning’s economic data, including the first look at Q3 GDP.  Initial jobless claims fell more than expected last week to 751,000, setting the stage for a potentially strong October jobs report next week. The first estimate of Q3 GDP revealed 33.1% quarter-over-quarter growth (annualized), slightly above expectations (32%) and more than reversing the 31.4% decline in Q2. The topline growth rate was driven by a 40.7% gain in persona consumption, which clearly benefited from significant fiscal and monetary support, and it followed a 33.2% decline in Q2. To be clear, this is a solid report, but at the same time, there are still parts of the economy that are struggling mightily amid the pandemic (e.g., leisure and travel). As such, getting Covid more under control and boosting consumer/business confidence will be critical, as will additional fiscal aid in the near future more targeted to help those sectors and individuals directly impacted while Covid containment efforts continue.

Jason Haley
Chief Investment Officer

10/26/20Chicago Fed Nat Activity Index0.730.270.791.11
10/26/20New Home Sales1025k959k1011k994k
10/26/20New Home Sales MoM1.40%-3.50%4.80%3.00%
10/26/20Dallas Fed Manf. Activity13.519.813.6
10/27/20Durable Goods Orders0.50%1.90%0.50%0.40%
10/27/20Durables Ex Transportation0.40%0.80%0.60%1.00%
10/27/20Cap Goods Orders Nondef Ex Air0.50%1.00%1.90%2.10%
10/27/20Cap Goods Ship Nondef Ex Air0.40%0.30%1.50%
10/27/20FHFA House Price Index MoM0.70%1.50%1.00%1.10%
10/27/20S&P CoreLogic CS 20-City MoM SA0.50%0.47%0.55%0.75%
10/27/20S&P CoreLogic CS 20-City YoY NSA4.20%5.18%3.95%4.12%
10/27/20S&P CoreLogic CS 20-City NSA Index229.35226.55226.92
10/27/20S&P CoreLogic CS US HPI YoY NSA5.71%4.78%4.78%
10/27/20S&P CoreLogic CS US HPI NSA Index223.97221.64221.63
10/27/20Conf. Board Consumer Confidence102100.9101.8101.3
10/27/20Conf. Board Present Situation104.698.598.9
10/27/20Conf. Board Expectations98.4104102.9
10/27/20Richmond Fed Manufact. Index182921
10/28/20MBA Mortgage Applications1.70%-0.60%
10/28/20Advance Goods Trade Balance-$84.5b-$79.4b-$82.9b-$83.1b
10/28/20Wholesale Inventories MoM0.40%-0.10%0.40%0.30%
10/28/20Retail Inventories MoM0.50%1.60%0.80%0.50%
10/29/20Initial Jobless Claims770k751k787k791k
10/29/20Continuing Claims7775k7756k8373k8465k
10/29/20GDP Annualized QoQ32.00%33.10%-31.40%
10/29/20Personal Consumption38.90%40.70%-33.20%
10/29/20GDP Price Index2.90%3.60%-1.80%
10/29/20Core PCE QoQ4.00%3.50%-0.80%
10/29/20Bloomberg Consumer Comfort46.6
10/29/20Pending Home Sales MoM2.90%8.80%
10/29/20Pending Home Sales NSA YoY23.00%20.50%
10/30/20Personal Income0.40%-2.70%
10/30/20Personal Spending1.00%1.00%
10/30/20Real Personal Spending0.80%0.70%
10/30/20PCE Deflator MoM0.20%0.30%
10/30/20PCE Deflator YoY1.50%1.40%
10/30/20PCE Core Deflator MoM0.20%0.30%
10/30/20Employment Cost Index0.50%0.50%
10/30/20PCE Core Deflator YoY1.70%1.60%
10/30/20MNI Chicago PMI5862.4
10/30/20U. of Mich. Sentiment81.281.2
10/30/20U. of Mich. Current Conditions84.984.9
10/30/20U. of Mich. Expectations78.878.8
10/30/20U. of Mich. 1 Yr Inflation2.70%
10/30/20U. of Mich. 5-10 Yr Inflation2.40%


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