October 29, 2020 Headlines

Both Treasuries and U.S. equity futures are little changed in the immediate wake of this morning’s economic data, including the first look at Q3 GDP.  Initial jobless claims fell more than expected last week to 751,000, setting the stage for a potentially strong October jobs report next week. The first estimate of Q3 GDP revealed 33.1% quarter-over-quarter growth (annualized), slightly above expectations (32%) and more than reversing the 31.4% decline in Q2. The topline growth rate was driven by a 40.7% gain in persona consumption, which clearly benefited from significant fiscal and monetary support, and it followed a 33.2% decline in Q2. To be clear, this is a solid report, but at the same time, there are still parts of the economy that are struggling mightily amid the pandemic (e.g., leisure and travel). As such, getting Covid more under control and boosting consumer/business confidence will be critical, as will additional fiscal aid in the near future more targeted to help those sectors and individuals directly impacted while Covid containment efforts continue.

Jason Haley
Chief Investment Officer

Date Event Survey Actual Prior Revised
10/26/20 Chicago Fed Nat Activity Index 0.73 0.27 0.79 1.11
10/26/20 New Home Sales 1025k 959k 1011k 994k
10/26/20 New Home Sales MoM 1.40% -3.50% 4.80% 3.00%
10/26/20 Dallas Fed Manf. Activity 13.5 19.8 13.6 —
10/27/20 Durable Goods Orders 0.50% 1.90% 0.50% 0.40%
10/27/20 Durables Ex Transportation 0.40% 0.80% 0.60% 1.00%
10/27/20 Cap Goods Orders Nondef Ex Air 0.50% 1.00% 1.90% 2.10%
10/27/20 Cap Goods Ship Nondef Ex Air 0.40% 0.30% 1.50% —
10/27/20 FHFA House Price Index MoM 0.70% 1.50% 1.00% 1.10%
10/27/20 S&P CoreLogic CS 20-City MoM SA 0.50% 0.47% 0.55% 0.75%
10/27/20 S&P CoreLogic CS 20-City YoY NSA 4.20% 5.18% 3.95% 4.12%
10/27/20 S&P CoreLogic CS 20-City NSA Index — 229.35 226.55 226.92
10/27/20 S&P CoreLogic CS US HPI YoY NSA — 5.71% 4.78% 4.78%
10/27/20 S&P CoreLogic CS US HPI NSA Index — 223.97 221.64 221.63
10/27/20 Conf. Board Consumer Confidence 102 100.9 101.8 101.3
10/27/20 Conf. Board Present Situation — 104.6 98.5 98.9
10/27/20 Conf. Board Expectations — 98.4 104 102.9
10/27/20 Richmond Fed Manufact. Index 18 29 21 —
10/28/20 MBA Mortgage Applications — 1.70% -0.60% —
10/28/20 Advance Goods Trade Balance -$84.5b -$79.4b -$82.9b -$83.1b
10/28/20 Wholesale Inventories MoM 0.40% -0.10% 0.40% 0.30%
10/28/20 Retail Inventories MoM 0.50% 1.60% 0.80% 0.50%
10/29/20 Initial Jobless Claims 770k 751k 787k 791k
10/29/20 Continuing Claims 7775k 7756k 8373k 8465k
10/29/20 GDP Annualized QoQ 32.00% 33.10% -31.40% —
10/29/20 Personal Consumption 38.90% 40.70% -33.20% —
10/29/20 GDP Price Index 2.90% 3.60% -1.80% —
10/29/20 Core PCE QoQ 4.00% 3.50% -0.80% —
10/29/20 Bloomberg Consumer Comfort — — 46.6 —
10/29/20 Pending Home Sales MoM 2.90% — 8.80% —
10/29/20 Pending Home Sales NSA YoY 23.00% — 20.50% —
10/30/20 Personal Income 0.40% — -2.70% —
10/30/20 Personal Spending 1.00% — 1.00% —
10/30/20 Real Personal Spending 0.80% — 0.70% —
10/30/20 PCE Deflator MoM 0.20% — 0.30% —
10/30/20 PCE Deflator YoY 1.50% — 1.40% —
10/30/20 PCE Core Deflator MoM 0.20% — 0.30% —
10/30/20 Employment Cost Index 0.50% — 0.50% —
10/30/20 PCE Core Deflator YoY 1.70% — 1.60% —
10/30/20 MNI Chicago PMI 58 — 62.4 —
10/30/20 U. of Mich. Sentiment 81.2 — 81.2 —
10/30/20 U. of Mich. Current Conditions 84.9 — 84.9 —
10/30/20 U. of Mich. Expectations 78.8 — 78.8 —
10/30/20 U. of Mich. 1 Yr Inflation — — 2.70% —
10/30/20 U. of Mich. 5-10 Yr Inflation — — 2.40% —

 

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