September 1, 2021 Headlines

Treasury yields were higher overnight despite weaker economic data out of China (again), but a downside miss in the ADP employment report has yields now lower on the day across the curve. U.S. equity futures are up 25-35 bps ahead of the open. The ADP employment report showed private payrolls added 374,000 jobs in August, far short of the 674,000 expected. Although ADP hasn’t always been the best predictor for nonfarm payrolls, today’s miss still plants some seeds of doubt ahead of Friday’s jobs report, which is expected to show a 652,000 increase in private payrolls. Mortgage application activity fell 2.4% last week according to the Mortgage Bankers Association index. The week-over-week change was mostly attributable to a 3.8% decline in refinance applications (purchases +0.6%), and the average 30-year and 15-year fixed rates were little changed at 3.03% and 2.39%, respectively.

Jason Haley
Chief Investment Officer

DateEventSurv(M)ActualPriorRevised
08/30/21Pending Home Sales MoM0.30%-1.80%-1.90%-2.00%
08/30/21Pending Home Sales NSA YoY-8.80%-9.50%-3.30%-3.50%
08/30/21Dallas Fed Manf. Activity23927.3
08/31/21FHFA House Price Index MoM1.90%1.60%1.70%1.80%
08/31/21House Price Purchase Index QoQ4.90%3.50%3.90%
08/31/21S&P CoreLogic CS 20-City MoM SA1.80%1.77%1.81%
08/31/21S&P CoreLogic CS 20-City YoY NSA18.60%19.08%16.99%17.14%
08/31/21S&P CoreLogic CS US HPI YoY NSA18.61%16.61%16.78%
08/31/21MNI Chicago PMI6866.873.4
08/31/21Conf. Board Consumer Confidence123113.8129.1125.1
08/31/21Conf. Board Present Situation147.3160.3157.2
08/31/21Conf. Board Expectations91.4108.4103.8
09/01/21MBA Mortgage Applications-2.40%1.60%
09/01/21ADP Employment Change625k374k330k326k
09/01/21Markit US Manufacturing PMI61.261.2
09/01/21Construction Spending MoM0.20%0.10%
09/01/21ISM Manufacturing58.559.5
09/01/21ISM Prices Paid8485.7
09/01/21ISM New Orders6164.9
09/01/21ISM Employment52.9
09/01/21Wards Total Vehicle Sales14.50m14.75m
09/02/21Challenger Job Cuts YoY-92.80%
09/02/21Nonfarm Productivity2.50%2.30%
09/02/21Initial Jobless Claims345k353k
09/02/21Unit Labor Costs0.90%1.00%
09/02/21Continuing Claims2808k2862k
09/02/21Trade Balance-$71.0b-$75.7b
09/02/21Langer Consumer Comfort57.2
09/02/21Factory Orders0.30%1.50%
09/02/21Factory Orders Ex Trans0.80%1.40%
09/02/21Durable Goods Orders-0.10%-0.10%
09/02/21Durables Ex Transportation0.70%0.70%
09/02/21Cap Goods Orders Nondef Ex Air0.00%
09/02/21Cap Goods Ship Nondef Ex Air1.00%
09/03/21Change in Nonfarm Payrolls748k943k
09/03/21Two-Month Payroll Net Revision119k
09/03/21Change in Private Payrolls652k703k
09/03/21Change in Manufact. Payrolls25k27k
09/03/21Unemployment Rate5.20%5.40%
09/03/21Average Hourly Earnings MoM0.30%0.40%
09/03/21Average Hourly Earnings YoY4.00%4.00%
09/03/21Average Weekly Hours All Employees34.834.8
09/03/21Labor Force Participation Rate61.80%61.70%
09/03/21Underemployment Rate9.20%
09/03/21Markit US Services PMI55.255.2
09/03/21Markit US Composite PMI55.4
09/03/21ISM Services Index61.764.1

 

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