Treasury yields were higher overnight despite weaker economic data out of China (again), but a downside miss in the ADP employment report has yields now lower on the day across the curve. U.S. equity futures are up 25-35 bps ahead of the open. The ADP employment report showed private payrolls added 374,000 jobs in August, far short of the 674,000 expected. Although ADP hasn’t always been the best predictor for nonfarm payrolls, today’s miss still plants some seeds of doubt ahead of Friday’s jobs report, which is expected to show a 652,000 increase in private payrolls. Mortgage application activity fell 2.4% last week according to the Mortgage Bankers Association index. The week-over-week change was mostly attributable to a 3.8% decline in refinance applications (purchases +0.6%), and the average 30-year and 15-year fixed rates were little changed at 3.03% and 2.39%, respectively.
Jason Haley
Chief Investment Officer
Date | Event | Surv(M) | Actual | Prior | Revised |
08/30/21 | Pending Home Sales MoM | 0.30% | -1.80% | -1.90% | -2.00% |
08/30/21 | Pending Home Sales NSA YoY | -8.80% | -9.50% | -3.30% | -3.50% |
08/30/21 | Dallas Fed Manf. Activity | 23 | 9 | 27.3 | — |
08/31/21 | FHFA House Price Index MoM | 1.90% | 1.60% | 1.70% | 1.80% |
08/31/21 | House Price Purchase Index QoQ | — | 4.90% | 3.50% | 3.90% |
08/31/21 | S&P CoreLogic CS 20-City MoM SA | 1.80% | 1.77% | 1.81% | — |
08/31/21 | S&P CoreLogic CS 20-City YoY NSA | 18.60% | 19.08% | 16.99% | 17.14% |
08/31/21 | S&P CoreLogic CS US HPI YoY NSA | — | 18.61% | 16.61% | 16.78% |
08/31/21 | MNI Chicago PMI | 68 | 66.8 | 73.4 | — |
08/31/21 | Conf. Board Consumer Confidence | 123 | 113.8 | 129.1 | 125.1 |
08/31/21 | Conf. Board Present Situation | — | 147.3 | 160.3 | 157.2 |
08/31/21 | Conf. Board Expectations | — | 91.4 | 108.4 | 103.8 |
09/01/21 | MBA Mortgage Applications | — | -2.40% | 1.60% | — |
09/01/21 | ADP Employment Change | 625k | 374k | 330k | 326k |
09/01/21 | Markit US Manufacturing PMI | 61.2 | — | 61.2 | — |
09/01/21 | Construction Spending MoM | 0.20% | — | 0.10% | — |
09/01/21 | ISM Manufacturing | 58.5 | — | 59.5 | — |
09/01/21 | ISM Prices Paid | 84 | — | 85.7 | — |
09/01/21 | ISM New Orders | 61 | — | 64.9 | — |
09/01/21 | ISM Employment | — | — | 52.9 | — |
09/01/21 | Wards Total Vehicle Sales | 14.50m | — | 14.75m | — |
09/02/21 | Challenger Job Cuts YoY | — | — | -92.80% | — |
09/02/21 | Nonfarm Productivity | 2.50% | — | 2.30% | — |
09/02/21 | Initial Jobless Claims | 345k | — | 353k | — |
09/02/21 | Unit Labor Costs | 0.90% | — | 1.00% | — |
09/02/21 | Continuing Claims | 2808k | — | 2862k | — |
09/02/21 | Trade Balance | -$71.0b | — | -$75.7b | — |
09/02/21 | Langer Consumer Comfort | — | — | 57.2 | — |
09/02/21 | Factory Orders | 0.30% | — | 1.50% | — |
09/02/21 | Factory Orders Ex Trans | 0.80% | — | 1.40% | — |
09/02/21 | Durable Goods Orders | -0.10% | — | -0.10% | — |
09/02/21 | Durables Ex Transportation | 0.70% | — | 0.70% | — |
09/02/21 | Cap Goods Orders Nondef Ex Air | — | — | 0.00% | — |
09/02/21 | Cap Goods Ship Nondef Ex Air | — | — | 1.00% | — |
09/03/21 | Change in Nonfarm Payrolls | 748k | — | 943k | — |
09/03/21 | Two-Month Payroll Net Revision | — | — | 119k | — |
09/03/21 | Change in Private Payrolls | 652k | — | 703k | — |
09/03/21 | Change in Manufact. Payrolls | 25k | — | 27k | — |
09/03/21 | Unemployment Rate | 5.20% | — | 5.40% | — |
09/03/21 | Average Hourly Earnings MoM | 0.30% | — | 0.40% | — |
09/03/21 | Average Hourly Earnings YoY | 4.00% | — | 4.00% | — |
09/03/21 | Average Weekly Hours All Employees | 34.8 | — | 34.8 | — |
09/03/21 | Labor Force Participation Rate | 61.80% | — | 61.70% | — |
09/03/21 | Underemployment Rate | — | — | 9.20% | — |
09/03/21 | Markit US Services PMI | 55.2 | — | 55.2 | — |
09/03/21 | Markit US Composite PMI | — | — | 55.4 | — |
09/03/21 | ISM Services Index | 61.7 | — | 64.1 | — |
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