Treasury yields are higher/steeper and equity futures lower following the Moody’s announcement to downgrade the U.S. sovereign debt rating from Aaa. To be fair, the other two major rating agencies had already done this a while back (S&P 2011; Fitch 2023), but it does bring the deteriorating U.S. fiscal situation into focus as Congress works through negotiations of the current budget bill. On that note, the House Budget Committee was able to approve the massive reconciliation package on its second try after four Republican holdouts changed their votes following modifications to the previous version. The bill now goes to the Rules Committee, and Republican leadership is still hoping to pass it by Memorial Day. The Committee for a Responsible Federal Budget estimated that the previous House version would add $3.3 trillion to $5.2 trillion to the federal debt load (including interest) over the next decade depending on how much of the provisions were made permanent.
Jason Haley Chief Investment Officer
Date Event Period Survey Actual Prior 5/19/2025 Leading Index Apr -0.90% — -0.70% 5/20/2025 Philadelphia Fed Non-Manufacturing Activity May — — -42.7 5/21/2025 MBA Mortgage Applications 16-May — — 1.10% 5/22/2025 Chicago Fed Nat Activity Index Apr -0.22 — -0.03 5/22/2025 Initial Jobless Claims 17-May 230k — 229k 5/22/2025 Initial Claims 4-Wk Moving Avg 17-May — — 230.50k 5/22/2025 Continuing Claims 10-May 1884k — 1881k 5/22/2025 S&P Global US Manufacturing PMI May P 49.9 — 50.2 5/22/2025 S&P Global US Services PMI May P 51 — 50.8 5/22/2025 S&P Global US Composite PMI May P 50.3 — 50.6 5/22/2025 Existing Home Sales Apr 4.10m — 4.02m 5/22/2025 Existing Home Sales MoM Apr 2.00% — -5.90% 5/22/2025 Kansas City Fed Manf. Activity May -6 — -4 5/23/2025 Bloomberg May United States Economic Survey 5/23/2025 New Home Sales Apr 690k — 724k 5/23/2025 New Home Sales MoM Apr -4.70% — 7.40% 5/23/2025 Kansas City Fed Services Activity May — — 3 5/23/2025 Building Permits Apr F — — 1412k 5/23/2025 Building Permits MoM Apr F — — -4.70%
Jason Haley Chief Investment Officer
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