The Treasury curve is bear steepening again this morning, with intermediate and long-end yields up 5 basis points (bps).
Month-to-date, yields are up 34-40 bps, with the 2-year note up the most. The front-end has been more impacted by the de-escalation in the trade war with China, while the long-end is more impacted by deficit concerns as Congress looks to pass the massive budget bill. Beyond rates markets, fixed income spreads have grinded tighter in May. As of yesterday’s close, the option-adjusted spread (OAS) of the ICE BofA US Corporate Index (investment grade) has tightened 19 bps versus Treasuries, and the ICE BofA Asset-Backed Securities Index is 11 bps tighter. The spread between SOFR swap rates and Treasuries (swap spreads) has moved more negative over the last several days amid an increase in required term premiums in the Treasuries market, particularly out of the yield curve. On the data front, the MBA mortgage applications index fell 5.1% last week as the average 30-year conventional contract rate moved closer to 7% (6.92% from 6.86%).
Jason Haley
Chief Investment Officer
| Date | Event | Survey | Actual | Prior | Revised |
| 5/21/2025 | MBA Mortgage Applications | — | -5.10% | 1.10% | — |
| 5/22/2025 | Chicago Fed Nat Activity Index | -0.25 | — | -0.03 | — |
| 5/22/2025 | Initial Jobless Claims | 230k | — | 229k | — |
| 5/22/2025 | Initial Claims 4-Wk Moving Avg | — | — | 230.50k | — |
| 5/22/2025 | Continuing Claims | 1883k | — | 1881k | — |
| 5/22/2025 | S&P Global US Manufacturing PMI | 49.8 | — | 50.2 | — |
| 5/22/2025 | S&P Global US Services PMI | 51 | — | 50.8 | — |
| 5/22/2025 | S&P Global US Composite PMI | 50.3 | — | 50.6 | — |
| 5/22/2025 | Existing Home Sales | 4.10m | — | 4.02m | — |
| 5/22/2025 | Existing Home Sales MoM | 2.00% | — | -5.90% | — |
| 5/22/2025 | Kansas City Fed Manf. Activity | -5 | — | -4 | — |
| 5/23/2025 | Bloomberg May United States Economic Survey | ||||
| 5/23/2025 | New Home Sales | 695k | — | 724k | — |
| 5/23/2025 | New Home Sales MoM | -4.00% | — | 7.40% | — |
| 5/23/2025 | Kansas City Fed Services Activity | — | — | 3 | — |
| 5/23/2025 | Building Permits | — | — | 1412k | — |
| 5/23/2025 | Building Permits MoM | — | — | -4.70% | — |
| 5/27/2025 | Durable Goods Orders | -8.10% | — | 9.20% | 7.50% |
| 5/27/2025 | Durables Ex Transportation | 0.10% | — | 0.00% | -0.40% |
| 5/27/2025 | Cap Goods Orders Nondef Ex Air | — | — | 0.10% | -0.20% |
| 5/27/2025 | Cap Goods Ship Nondef Ex Air | — | — | 0.20% | 0.10% |
| 5/27/2025 | FHFA House Price Index MoM | — | — | 0.10% | — |
| 5/27/2025 | House Price Purchase Index QoQ | — | — | 1.40% | — |
| 5/27/2025 | S&P CoreLogic CS 20-City MoM SA | — | — | 0.40% | — |
| 5/27/2025 | S&P CoreLogic CS 20-City YoY NSA | — | — | 4.50% | — |
| 5/27/2025 | S&P CoreLogic CS US HPI YoY NSA | — | — | 3.87% | — |
| 5/27/2025 | Conf. Board Consumer Confidence | 87 | — | 86 | — |
| 5/27/2025 | Conf. Board Present Situation | — | — | 133.5 | — |
| 5/27/2025 | Conf. Board Expectations | — | — | 54.4 | — |
| 5/27/2025 | Dallas Fed Manf. Activity | — | — | -35.8 | — |
| 5/28/2025 | MBA Mortgage Applications | — | — | -5.10% | — |
| 5/28/2025 | Richmond Fed Manufact. Index | — | — | -13 | — |
| 5/28/2025 | Richmond Fed Business Conditions | — | — | -30 | — |
| 5/28/2025 | Dallas Fed Services Activity | — | — | -19.4 | — |
| 5/28/2025 | FOMC Meeting Minutes | — | — | — | — |
