Cooler heads have seemingly prevailed – at least for now – following the escalation in trade war discussions between the U.S. and European Union last week.
President Trump announced an extension in the deadline for the two trade partners, settling on July 9th as the drop-dead date to reach an agreement. EU President Ursala von der Leyen said, “Europe is ready to advance talks swiftly and decisively…”, with senior officials holding another round of negotiations late on the Monday holiday.
The 50% tariff hike threatened by the Trump administration could affect upwards of $300bn worth of goods, with economists suggesting the net impact may result in lowering U.S. GDP by 0.5-0.6% and increasing inflation another 0.3%.
In light of the productive rhetoric, risk assets are performing well in the premarket session – both S&P and NASDAQ futures contracts are up over 1%. The economic data calendar is fairly packed for the shortened trading week, including the release of 1Q2025 U.S. GDP on Friday (5/30).
Michael Oravetz
Managing Director, Investment Management Group
| Date | Event | Survey | Actual | Prior | Revised |
| 5/27/2025 | Durable Goods Orders | -7.80% | -6.30% | 9.20% | 7.60% |
| 5/27/2025 | Durables Ex Transportation | 0.00% | 0.20% | 0.00% | -0.20% |
| 5/27/2025 | Cap Goods Orders Nondef Ex Air | -0.20% | -1.30% | 0.10% | 0.30% |
| 5/27/2025 | Cap Goods Ship Nondef Ex Air | -0.10% | -0.10% | 0.20% | 0.50% |
| 5/27/2025 | FHFA House Price Index MoM | 0.10% | — | 0.10% | — |
| 5/27/2025 | House Price Purchase Index QoQ | — | — | 1.40% | — |
| 5/27/2025 | S&P CoreLogic CS 20-City MoM SA | 0.30% | — | 0.40% | — |
| 5/27/2025 | S&P CoreLogic CS 20-City YoY NSA | 4.50% | — | 4.50% | — |
| 5/27/2025 | S&P CoreLogic CS US HPI YoY NSA | — | — | 3.87% | — |
| 5/27/2025 | Conf. Board Consumer Confidence | 87.1 | — | 86 | — |
| 5/27/2025 | Conf. Board Present Situation | — | — | 133.5 | — |
| 5/27/2025 | Conf. Board Expectations | — | — | 54.4 | — |
| 5/27/2025 | Dallas Fed Manf. Activity | -23.1 | — | -35.8 | — |
| 5/28/2025 | MBA Mortgage Applications | — | — | -5.10% | — |
| 5/28/2025 | Richmond Fed Manufact. Index | -9 | — | -13 | — |
| 5/28/2025 | Richmond Fed Business Conditions | — | — | -30 | — |
| 5/28/2025 | Dallas Fed Services Activity | — | — | -19.4 | — |
| 5/28/2025 | FOMC Meeting Minutes | — | — | — | — |
| 5/29/2025 | GDP Annualized QoQ | -0.30% | — | -0.30% | — |
| 5/29/2025 | Personal Consumption | 1.70% | — | 1.80% | — |
| 5/29/2025 | GDP Price Index | 3.70% | — | 3.70% | — |
| 5/29/2025 | Core PCE Price Index QoQ | 3.50% | — | 3.50% | — |
| 5/29/2025 | Initial Jobless Claims | 230k | — | 227k | — |
| 5/29/2025 | Initial Claims 4-Wk Moving Avg | — | — | 231.50k | — |
| 5/29/2025 | Continuing Claims | 1889k | — | 1903k | — |
| 5/29/2025 | Pending Home Sales MoM | -1.00% | — | 6.10% | — |
| 5/29/2025 | Pending Home Sales NSA YoY | — | — | -0.10% | — |
| 5/30/2025 | Personal Income | 0.30% | — | 0.50% | — |
| 5/30/2025 | Personal Spending | 0.20% | — | 0.70% | — |
| 5/30/2025 | Real Personal Spending | 0.00% | — | 0.70% | — |
| 5/30/2025 | PCE Price Index MoM | 0.10% | — | 0.00% | — |
| 5/30/2025 | PCE Price Index YoY | 2.20% | — | 2.30% | — |
| 5/30/2025 | Core PCE Price Index MoM | 0.10% | — | 0.00% | — |
| 5/30/2025 | Core PCE Price Index YoY | 2.50% | — | 2.60% | — |
| 5/30/2025 | Advance Goods Trade Balance | -$143.0b | — | -$162.0b | -$163.2b |
| 5/30/2025 | Wholesale Inventories MoM | 0.40% | — | 0.40% | — |
| 5/30/2025 | Retail Inventories MoM | -0.10% | — | -0.10% | — |
| 5/30/2025 | MNI Chicago PMI | 45.1 | — | 44.6 | — |
| 5/30/2025 | U. of Mich. Sentiment | 51 | — | 50.8 | — |
| 5/30/2025 | U. of Mich. Current Conditions | — | — | 57.6 | — |
| 5/30/2025 | U. of Mich. Expectations | — | — | 46.5 | — |
| 5/30/2025 | U. of Mich. 1 Yr Inflation | — | — | 7.30% | — |
| 5/30/2025 | U. of Mich. 5-10 Yr Inflation | — | — | 4.60% | — |
