The US Court of International Trade blocked many of the Trump administration’s tariffs, stating that they had improperly invoked a 1977 law, which made several tariffs illegal.
The ruling sparked an improvement in risk sentiment, sending both equities and bond yields higher. Unsurprisingly, the Trump administration has announced its intention to appeal the ruling, which will send the case to an appellate court and potentially the Supreme Court.
On the data front, initial jobless claims increased 14,000 to 240,000, higher than all estimates, while Q1 GDP was revised to a -0.2% annual rate from -0.3%. Q1 consumption was revised to a notably softer +1.2% pace from +1.8%.
Hafizan Hamzah
Senior Director, Investment Management Group
| Date | Event | Survey | Actual | Prior | Revised |
| 5/29/2025 | GDP Annualized QoQ | -0.30% | -0.20% | -0.30% | — |
| 5/29/2025 | Personal Consumption | 1.70% | 1.20% | 1.80% | — |
| 5/29/2025 | GDP Price Index | 3.70% | 3.70% | 3.70% | — |
| 5/29/2025 | Core PCE Price Index QoQ | 3.50% | 3.40% | 3.50% | — |
| 5/29/2025 | Initial Jobless Claims | 230k | 240k | 227k | 226k |
| 5/29/2025 | Initial Claims 4-Wk Moving Avg | — | 230.75k | 231.50k | 231.00k |
| 5/29/2025 | Continuing Claims | 1893k | 1919k | 1903k | 1893k |
| 5/29/2025 | Pending Home Sales MoM | -1.00% | — | 6.10% | — |
| 5/29/2025 | Pending Home Sales NSA YoY | 2.70% | — | -0.10% | — |
| 5/30/2025 | Personal Income | 0.30% | — | 0.50% | — |
| 5/30/2025 | Personal Spending | 0.20% | — | 0.70% | — |
| 5/30/2025 | Real Personal Spending | 0.00% | — | 0.70% | — |
| 5/30/2025 | PCE Price Index MoM | 0.10% | — | 0.00% | — |
| 5/30/2025 | PCE Price Index YoY | 2.20% | — | 2.30% | — |
| 5/30/2025 | Core PCE Price Index MoM | 0.10% | — | 0.00% | — |
| 5/30/2025 | Core PCE Price Index YoY | 2.50% | — | 2.60% | — |
| 5/30/2025 | Advance Goods Trade Balance | -$143.0b | — | -$162.0b | -$163.2b |
| 5/30/2025 | Wholesale Inventories MoM | 0.40% | — | 0.40% | — |
| 5/30/2025 | Retail Inventories MoM | -0.20% | — | -0.10% | — |
| 5/30/2025 | MNI Chicago PMI | 45.1 | — | 44.6 | — |
| 5/30/2025 | U. of Mich. Sentiment | 51.5 | — | 50.8 | — |
| 5/30/2025 | U. of Mich. Current Conditions | 58.5 | — | 57.6 | — |
| 5/30/2025 | U. of Mich. Expectations | 47.5 | — | 46.5 | — |
| 5/30/2025 | U. of Mich. 1 Yr Inflation | 7.10% | — | 7.30% | — |
| 5/30/2025 | U. of Mich. 5-10 Yr Inflation | 4.50% | — | 4.60% | — |
| 6/2/2025 | S&P Global US Manufacturing PMI | 52.2 | — | 52.3 | — |
| 6/2/2025 | ISM Manufacturing | 49 | — | 48.7 | — |
| 6/2/2025 | ISM Prices Paid | — | — | 69.8 | — |
| 6/2/2025 | ISM New Orders | — | — | 47.2 | — |
| 6/2/2025 | ISM Employment | — | — | 46.5 | — |
| 6/2/2025 | Construction Spending MoM | 0.40% | — | -0.50% | — |
| 6/3/2025 | Factory Orders | -3.10% | — | 4.30% | 3.40% |
| 6/3/2025 | Factory Orders Ex Trans | — | — | -0.20% | -0.40% |
| 6/3/2025 | Durable Goods Orders | — | — | -6.30% | — |
| 6/3/2025 | Durables Ex Transportation | — | — | 0.20% | — |
| 6/3/2025 | Cap Goods Orders Nondef Ex Air | — | — | -1.30% | — |
| 6/3/2025 | Cap Goods Ship Nondef Ex Air | — | — | -0.10% | — |
| 6/3/2025 | JOLTS Job Openings | 7100k | — | 7192k | — |
| 6/3/2025 | JOLTS Job Openings Rate | — | — | 4.30% | — |
| 6/3/2025 | JOLTS Quits Level | — | — | 3332k | — |
| 6/3/2025 | JOLTS Quits Rate | — | — | 2.10% | — |
| 6/3/2025 | JOLTS Layoffs Level | — | — | 1558k | — |
| 6/3/2025 | JOLTS Layoffs Rate | — | — | 1.00% | — |
| 6/3/2025 | Wards Total Vehicle Sales | 16.30m | — | 17.27m | — |
| 6/4/2025 | MBA Mortgage Applications | — | — | -1.20% | — |
| 6/4/2025 | ADP Employment Change | 118k | — | 62k | — |
| 6/4/2025 | S&P Global US Services PMI | — | — | 52.3 | — |
| 6/4/2025 | S&P Global US Composite PMI | — | — | 52.1 | — |
| 6/4/2025 | ISM Services Index | 52 | — | 51.6 | — |
| 6/4/2025 | ISM Services Prices Paid | — | — | 65.1 | — |
| 6/4/2025 | ISM Services New Orders | — | — | 52.3 | — |
| 6/4/2025 | ISM Services Employment | — | — | 49 | — |
| 6/4/2025 | Fed Releases Beige Book | ||||
| 6/5/2025 | Challenger Job Cuts YoY | — | — | 62.70% | — |
| 6/5/2025 | Trade Balance | -$117.3b | — | -$140.5b | — |
| 6/5/2025 | Nonfarm Productivity | -0.80% | — | -0.80% | — |
| 6/5/2025 | Unit Labor Costs | 5.70% | — | 5.70% | — |
| 6/5/2025 | Initial Jobless Claims | — | — | 240k | — |
| 6/5/2025 | Initial Claims 4-Wk Moving Avg | — | — | 230.75k | — |
| 6/5/2025 | Continuing Claims | — | — | 1919k | — |
