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Author Hafizan Hamzah

Published

Estimated

Personal income rose more than expected last month, rising 0.8% vs 0.3% expected, while personal spending fell from the prior month.

Inflation-adjusted spending came in at +0.1% for April vs +0.7% for March. Core PCE rose in line with expectations at +0.1% m/m and +2.5% y/y. The increase in spending was driven by an uptick in service-related outlays. The tepid growth in spending is just one indication of a slowing economy, as Americans remain anxious about the country’s economic direction.

Hafizan Hamzah
Senior Director, Investment Management Group

DateEventSurveyActualPriorRevised
5/30/2025Personal Income0.30%0.80%0.50%0.70%
5/30/2025Personal Spending0.20%0.20%0.70%     —
5/30/2025Real Personal Spending0.00%0.10%0.70%     —
5/30/2025PCE Price Index MoM0.10%0.10%0.00%     —
5/30/2025PCE Price Index YoY2.20%2.10%2.30%     —
5/30/2025Core PCE Price Index MoM0.10%0.10%0.00%0.10%
5/30/2025Core PCE Price Index YoY2.50%2.50%2.60%2.70%
5/30/2025Advance Goods Trade Balance-$143.0b-$87.6b-$162.0b-$162.3b
5/30/2025Wholesale Inventories MoM0.40%0.00%0.40%0.30%
5/30/2025Retail Inventories MoM-0.10%-0.10%-0.10%-0.30%
5/30/2025MNI Chicago PMI45     —44.6     —
5/30/2025U. of Mich. Sentiment51.5     —50.8     —
5/30/2025U. of Mich. Current Conditions58     —57.6     —
5/30/2025U. of Mich. Expectations47.7     —46.5     —
5/30/2025U. of Mich. 1 Yr Inflation7.10%     —7.30%     —
5/30/2025U. of Mich. 5-10 Yr Inflation4.60%     —4.60%     —
6/2/2025S&P Global US Manufacturing PMI52.2     —52.3     —
6/2/2025ISM Manufacturing49.2     —48.7     —
6/2/2025ISM Prices Paid     —     —69.8     —
6/2/2025ISM New Orders     —     —47.2     —
6/2/2025ISM Employment     —     —46.5     —
6/2/2025Construction Spending MoM0.40%     —-0.50%     —
6/3/2025Factory Orders-3.10%     —4.30%3.40%
6/3/2025Factory Orders Ex Trans     —     —-0.20%-0.40%
6/3/2025Durable Goods Orders     —     —-6.30%     —
6/3/2025Durables Ex Transportation     —     —0.20%     —
6/3/2025Cap Goods Orders Nondef Ex Air     —     —-1.30%     —
6/3/2025Cap Goods Ship Nondef Ex Air     —     —-0.10%     —
6/3/2025JOLTS Job Openings7100k     —7192k     —
6/3/2025JOLTS Job Openings Rate     —     —4.30%     —
6/3/2025JOLTS Quits Level     —     —3332k     —
6/3/2025JOLTS Quits Rate     —     —2.10%     —
6/3/2025JOLTS Layoffs Level     —     —1558k     —
6/3/2025JOLTS Layoffs Rate     —     —1.00%     —
6/3/2025Wards Total Vehicle Sales16.30m     —17.27m     —
6/4/2025MBA Mortgage Applications     —     —-1.20%     —
6/4/2025ADP Employment Change110k     —62k     —
6/4/2025S&P Global US Services PMI     —     —52.3     —
6/4/2025S&P Global US Composite PMI     —     —52.1     —
6/4/2025ISM Services Index52     —51.6     —
6/4/2025ISM Services Prices Paid     —     —65.1     —
6/4/2025ISM Services New Orders     —     —52.3     —
6/4/2025ISM Services Employment     —     —49     —
6/4/2025Fed Releases Beige Book    
6/5/2025Challenger Job Cuts YoY     —     —62.70%     —
6/5/2025Trade Balance-$117.3b     —-$140.5b     —
6/5/2025Nonfarm Productivity-0.80%     —-0.80%     —
6/5/2025Unit Labor Costs5.70%     —5.70%     —
6/5/2025Initial Jobless Claims     —     —240k     —
6/5/2025Initial Claims 4-Wk Moving Avg     —     —230.75k     —
6/5/2025Continuing Claims     —     —1919k     —
6/6/2025Change in Nonfarm Payrolls130k     —177k     —
6/6/2025Change in Private Payrolls110k     —167k     —
6/6/2025Change in Manufact. Payrolls-5k     —-1k     —
6/6/2025Nonfarm Payrolls 3-Mo Avg Chg     —     —155k     —
6/6/2025Two-Month Payroll Net Revision     —     —-58k     —
6/6/2025Unemployment Rate4.20%     —4.20%     —
6/6/2025Labor Force Participation Rate     —     —62.60%     —
6/6/2025Underemployment Rate     —     —7.80%     —
6/6/2025Average Hourly Earnings MoM0.30%     —0.20%     —
6/6/2025Average Hourly Earnings YoY3.60%     —3.80%     —
6/6/2025Average Weekly Hours All Employees34.3     —34.3     —
6/6/2025Consumer Credit     —     —$10.172b     —

Hafizan Hamzah

Senior Director, Investment Management Group

LinkedIn

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