Site Search

Looking for something? Use the search bar below or visit our Resources page.


Author Hafizan Hamzah

Published

Estimated

Treasuries are rallying while US stock futures are trading in negative territory following the release of an OECD global growth forecast.

The OECD cut GDP projections for 2025 and 2026, stating that trade barriers and uncertainty are stymying confidence. The lack of clarity has made it difficult for businesses to plan for the near term and has made pricing risk more difficult for investors. The report showed a 0.2 downward revision in the Global GDP forecast to 2.9% for 2025 and a 0.1% change in the 2026 forecast. The OECD projection is forecasting US GDP to be 1.6% for 2025 (a downward revision of 0.6%) and 1.5% for 2026 (a downward revision of 0.1%).

Hafizan Hamzah
Senior Director, Investment Management Group

DateEventSurveyActualPriorRevised
6/3/2025Factory Orders-3.20%     —4.30%3.40%
6/3/2025Factory Orders Ex Trans0.20%     —-0.20%-0.40%
6/3/2025Durable Goods Orders-6.30%     —-6.30%     —
6/3/2025Durables Ex Transportation0.20%     —0.20%     —
6/3/2025Cap Goods Orders Nondef Ex Air-1.30%     —-1.30%     —
6/3/2025Cap Goods Ship Nondef Ex Air-0.10%     —-0.10%     —
6/3/2025JOLTS Job Openings7100k     —7192k     —
6/3/2025JOLTS Job Openings Rate     —     —4.30%     —
6/3/2025JOLTS Quits Level3271k     —3332k     —
6/3/2025JOLTS Quits Rate     —     —2.10%     —
6/3/2025JOLTS Layoffs Level1614k     —1558k     —
6/3/2025JOLTS Layoffs Rate     —     —1.00%     —
6/3/2025Wards Total Vehicle Sales16.00m     —17.27m     —
6/4/2025MBA Mortgage Applications     —     —-1.20%     —
6/4/2025ADP Employment Change112k     —62k     —
6/4/2025S&P Global US Services PMI52.3     —52.3     —
6/4/2025S&P Global US Composite PMI52.1     —52.1     —
6/4/2025ISM Services Index52     —51.6     —
6/4/2025ISM Services Prices Paid65     —65.1     —
6/4/2025ISM Services New Orders     —     —52.3     —
6/4/2025ISM Services Employment     —     —49     —
6/4/2025Fed Releases Beige Book    
6/5/2025Challenger Job Cuts YoY     —     —62.70%     —
6/5/2025Trade Balance-$66.1b     —-$140.5b     —
6/5/2025Nonfarm Productivity-0.80%     —-0.80%     —
6/5/2025Unit Labor Costs5.70%     —5.70%     —
6/5/2025Initial Jobless Claims235k     —240k     —
6/5/2025Initial Claims 4-Wk Moving Avg     —     —230.75k     —
6/5/2025Continuing Claims1910k     —1919k     —
6/6/2025Change in Nonfarm Payrolls130k     —177k     —
6/6/2025Change in Private Payrolls120k     —167k     —
6/6/2025Change in Manufact. Payrolls-4k     —-1k     —
6/6/2025Nonfarm Payrolls 3-Mo Avg Chg     —     —155k     —
6/6/2025Two-Month Payroll Net Revision     —     —-58k     —
6/6/2025Unemployment Rate4.20%     —4.20%     —
6/6/2025Labor Force Participation Rate62.60%     —62.60%     —
6/6/2025Underemployment Rate     —     —7.80%     —
6/6/2025Average Hourly Earnings MoM0.30%     —0.20%     —
6/6/2025Average Hourly Earnings YoY3.70%     —3.80%     —
6/6/2025Average Weekly Hours All Employees34.3     —34.3     —
6/6/2025Consumer Credit$10.100b     —$10.172b     —
6/9/2025Wholesale Trade Sales MoM     —     —0.60%     —
6/9/2025Wholesale Inventories MoM     —     —0.00%     —
6/9/2025NY Fed 1-Yr Inflation Expectations     —     —3.63%     —
6/10/2025NFIB Small Business Optimism95.8     —95.8     —

Hafizan Hamzah

Senior Director, Investment Management Group

LinkedIn

  Headline Disclaimer

ALM First offers investment advisory services through ALM First Financial Advisors, LLC, which is registered with the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (“SEC”). SEC registration does not constitute an endorsement of the firm by the SEC nor does it indicate that the firm has attained a particular level of skill or ability. The information contained herein does not constitute investment advice or a recommendation for you to purchase or sell any specific security. You are solely responsible for reviewing the content and for any actions you take or choose not to take based on your review of such content.

Information contained herein was derived from third party sources as indicated. While such information is believed to be reliable, no representation or warranty is made concerning the accuracy of any information presented. We have not and will not independently verify this information. Where such sources include opinions and projections, such opinions and projections should be ascribed only to the applicable third party source and not to ALM First.

Statements herein that reflect projections or expectations of future financial or economic performance are forward-looking statements. Such “forward-looking” statements are based on various assumptions, which assumptions may not prove to be correct. Accordingly, there can be no assurance that such assumptions and statements will accurately predict future events or actual performance. No representation or warranty can be given that the estimates, opinions or assumptions made herein will prove to be accurate. Any projections and forward-looking statements included herein should be considered speculative and are qualified in their entirety by the information and risks disclosed in the confidential offering document. Actual results for any period may or may not approximate such forward-looking statements. No representations or warranties whatsoever are made by ALM First Financial Advisors, LLC or any other person or entity as to the future profitability of investments recommended by ALM First Financial Advisors, LLC.



Recent Beyond The Headlines


  Headlines RSS
Strategic Partners

Let’s Work Together

ALM First is your agile partner with a trusted history of delivering results.