Global bond yields are notably higher this morning on concerns of a prolonged conflict in the Middle East.
Oil prices popped overnight after President Trump said that the US “doesn’t need the Strait of Hormuz open,” and the 10-year Treasury yield subsequently breached the 4.50% level (currently 4.55%). The move in yields is even more pronounced in Europe, with U.K. yields up 13-18 bps. Risk markets are feeling pain this morning as well, with S&P 500 futures down 1.2% a little less than an hour before the open. European equity markets are down roughly 2%, matching the selloff in Japan’s Nikkei index today. The economic calendar is relatively light to end the week, and there are no Fed leaders scheduled to speak today.
Jason Haley
Chief Investment Officer
| Date | Event | Survey | Actual | Prior | Revised |
| 5/15/2026 | Empire Manufacturing | 7.2 | 19.6 | 11 | — |
| 5/15/2026 | Industrial Production MoM | 0.30% | — | -0.50% | — |
| 5/15/2026 | Manufacturing (SIC) Production | 0.20% | — | -0.10% | — |
| 5/15/2026 | Capacity Utilization | 75.80% | — | 75.70% | — |
| 5/18/2026 | New York Fed Services Business Activity | — | — | -14 | — |
| 5/18/2026 | NAHB Housing Market Index | 34 | — | 34 | — |
| 5/18/2026 | Total Net TIC Flows | — | — | $184.5b | — |
| 5/18/2026 | Net Long-term TIC Flows | — | — | $58.6b | — |
| 5/19/2026 | ADP Weekly Employment Change | — | — | 33.000k | — |
| 5/19/2026 | Pending Home Sales MoM | 1.60% | — | 1.50% | — |
| 5/19/2026 | Pending Home Sales NSA YoY | — | — | 1.80% | — |
| 5/20/2026 | MBA Mortgage Applications | — | — | 1.70% | — |
| 5/20/2026 | FOMC Meeting Minutes | — | — | — | — |
| 5/21/2026 | Initial Jobless Claims | — | — | 211k | — |
| 5/21/2026 | Initial Claims 4-Wk Moving Avg | — | — | 203.75k | — |
| 5/21/2026 | Continuing Claims | — | — | 1782k | — |
| 5/21/2026 | Philadelphia Fed Business Outlook | 15 | — | 26.7 | — |
| 5/21/2026 | Housing Starts | 1420k | — | 1502k | — |
| 5/21/2026 | Housing Starts MoM | -5.50% | — | 10.80% | — |
| 5/21/2026 | Building Permits | 1380k | — | 1363k | — |
| 5/21/2026 | Building Permits MoM | 2.70% | — | -11.40% | — |
| 5/21/2026 | S&P Global US Manufacturing PMI | 53.6 | — | 54.5 | — |
| 5/21/2026 | S&P Global US Services PMI | 51.3 | — | 51 | — |
| 5/21/2026 | S&P Global US Composite PMI | — | — | 51.7 | — |
| 5/21/2026 | Kansas City Fed Manf. Activity | — | — | 10 | — |
| 5/22/2026 | Bloomberg May United States Economic Survey | ||||
| 5/22/2026 | U. of Mich. Sentiment | 48.2 | — | 48.2 | — |
| 5/22/2026 | U. of Mich. Current Conditions | — | — | 47.8 | — |
| 5/22/2026 | U. of Mich. Expectations | — | — | 48.5 | — |
| 5/22/2026 | U. of Mich. 1 Yr Inflation | — | — | 4.50% | — |
| 5/22/2026 | U. of Mich. 5-10 Yr Inflation | — | — | 3.40% | — |
| 5/22/2026 | Kansas City Fed Services Activity | — | — | 3 | — |
