Site Search

Looking for something? Use the search bar below or visit our Resources page.


Author Jason Haley

Published

Estimated

Treasury yields are modestly lower this morning following a choppy, back-and-forth overnight trading session.

Equity futures are higher, led by the tech sector, after SpaceX showed strong growth in its AI and satellite internet businesses. The SpaceX results ease some of the recent market worries that AI demand isn’t sufficient to justify the massive capital outlays to build data centers and compute power. The MBA mortgage applications index fell last week for a seventh consecutive time. Purchase applications were down 7.3%, and refinance applications fell 2.0%. The average 30-year conventional contract rate fell 9 basis points from the prior week’s YTD high of 7.50%.

Jason Haley
Chief Investment Officer

DateEventSurveyActualPriorRevised
10/21/2026MBA Mortgage Applications     —-5.30%-2.70%     —
10/22/2026Initial Jobless Claims200k     —199k     —
10/22/2026Initial Claims 4-Wk Moving Avg     —     —198.50k     —
10/22/2026Continuing Claims1710k     —1710k     —
10/22/2026Leading Index-0.10%     —-0.10%     —
10/22/2026Kansas City Fed Manf. Activity12     —14     —
10/23/2026Bloomberg Oct. United States Economic Survey    
10/23/2026S&P Global US Manufacturing PMI55.5     —55.9     —
10/23/2026S&P Global US Services PMI58     —58.8     —
10/23/2026S&P Global US Composite PMI57.1     —58.4     —
10/23/2026U. of Mich. Sentiment46.3     —46.3     —
10/23/2026U. of Mich. Current Conditions     —     —44.7     —
10/23/2026U. of Mich. Expectations     —     —47.3     —
10/23/2026U. of Mich. 1 Yr Inflation     —     —4.70%     —
10/23/2026U. of Mich. 5-10 Yr Inflation     —     —3.50%     —
10/23/2026Kansas City Fed Services Activity     —     —0     —
10/26/2026Chicago Fed Nat Activity Index     —     —-0.04     —
10/26/2026Dallas Fed Manf. Activity     —     —9.8     —
10/27/2026ADP Weekly Employment Change     —     —18.500k     —
10/27/2026Durable Goods Orders1.40%     —-0.10%     —
10/27/2026Durables Ex Transportation0.50%     —0.20%     —
10/27/2026Cap Goods Orders Nondef Ex Air0.70%     —1.60%     —
10/27/2026Cap Goods Ship Nondef Ex Air     —     —0.50%     —
10/27/2026FHFA House Price Index MoM     —     —0.30%     —
10/27/2026S&P Cotality CS 20-City MoM SA     —     —0.32%     —
10/27/2026S&P Cotality CS 20-City YoY NSA     —     —2.47%     —
10/27/2026S&P Cotality CS US HPI YoY NSA     —     —1.93%     —
10/27/2026Conf. Board Consumer Confidence80.3     —81.9     —
10/27/2026Richmond Fed Manufact. Index     —     —-2     —
10/27/2026Richmond Fed Business Conditions     —     —-8     —
10/27/2026Conf. Board Present Situation     —     —109.3     —
10/27/2026Conf. Board Expectations     —     —63.6     —
10/27/2026New Home Sales652k     —684k     —
10/27/2026New Home Sales MoM-5.50%     —6.40%     —
10/27/2026Dallas Fed Services Activity     —     —-1.8     —
10/27/2026Building Permits     —     —1400k     —
10/27/2026Building Permits MoM     —     —-0.20%     —
10/28/2026MBA Mortgage Applications     —     —-5.30%     —
10/28/2026Advance Goods Trade Balance-$125.0b     —-$132.6b-$132.1b
10/28/2026Advance Goods Imports MoM SA     —     —5.50%5.40%
10/28/2026Advance Goods Exports MoM SA     —     —1.90%2.10%
10/28/2026Retail Inventories MoM     —     —0.30%0.20%
10/28/2026Wholesale Inventories MoM     —     —0.50%     —
10/28/2026FOMC Rate Decision (Upper Bound)4.00%     —4.00%     —
10/28/2026FOMC Rate Decision (Lower Bound)3.75%     —3.75%     —
10/28/2026Fed Interest on Reserve Balances Rate3.90%     —3.90%     —
10/28/2026Fed Reverse Repo Rate3.75%     —3.75%     —

Jason Haley

Chief Investment Officer

LinkedIn

  Headline Disclaimer

ALM First offers investment advisory services through ALM First Financial Advisors, LLC, which is registered with the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (“SEC”). SEC registration does not constitute an endorsement of the firm by the SEC nor does it indicate that the firm has attained a particular level of skill or ability. The information contained herein does not constitute investment advice or a recommendation for you to purchase or sell any specific security. You are solely responsible for reviewing the content and for any actions you take or choose not to take based on your review of such content.

Information contained herein was derived from third party sources as indicated. While such information is believed to be reliable, no representation or warranty is made concerning the accuracy of any information presented. We have not and will not independently verify this information. Where such sources include opinions and projections, such opinions and projections should be ascribed only to the applicable third party source and not to ALM First.

Statements herein that reflect projections or expectations of future financial or economic performance are forward-looking statements. Such “forward-looking” statements are based on various assumptions, which assumptions may not prove to be correct. Accordingly, there can be no assurance that such assumptions and statements will accurately predict future events or actual performance. No representation or warranty can be given that the estimates, opinions or assumptions made herein will prove to be accurate. Any projections and forward-looking statements included herein should be considered speculative and are qualified in their entirety by the information and risks disclosed in the confidential offering document. Actual results for any period may or may not approximate such forward-looking statements. No representations or warranties whatsoever are made by ALM First Financial Advisors, LLC or any other person or entity as to the future profitability of investments recommended by ALM First Financial Advisors, LLC.



Recent Beyond The Headlines


  Headlines RSS
Strategic Partners

Let’s Work Together

ALM First is your agile partner with a trusted history of delivering results.