After selling off nearly 20 bps following yesterday’s hotter than expected CPI print, Treasury yields have rallied 2 to 5 bps. The catalyst for the rally was a lower than expected PPI print. March PPI rose 0.2% m/m vs a median forecast of 0.3%. Core PPI, which excludes food and energy costs, rose 0.2%, right in line with expectations. Initial jobless claims came in lower than expected at 211,000 last week, the forecast called for a reading of 215,000. Continuing claims rose by 28,000 to 1.817mm.
Hafizan Hamzah Senior Director, Investment Management Group
Date Event Surv(M) Actual Prior Revised 04/11/24 PPI Final Demand MoM 0.30% 0.20% 0.60% — 04/11/24 PPI Ex Food and Energy MoM 0.20% 0.20% 0.30% — 04/11/24 PPI Ex Food, Energy, Trade MoM 0.20% 0.20% 0.40% 0.30% 04/11/24 PPI Final Demand YoY 2.20% 2.10% 1.60% — 04/11/24 PPI Ex Food and Energy YoY 2.30% 2.40% 2.00% 2.10% 04/11/24 PPI Ex Food, Energy, Trade YoY — 2.80% 2.80% 2.70% 04/11/24 Initial Jobless Claims 215k 211k 221k 222k 04/11/24 Continuing Claims 1800k 1817k 1791k 1789k 04/12/24 Import Price Index MoM 0.30% — 0.30% — 04/12/24 Import Price Index ex Petroleum MoM 0.10% — 0.20% — 04/12/24 Import Price Index YoY 0.30% — -0.80% — 04/12/24 Export Price Index MoM 0.30% — 0.80% — 04/12/24 Export Price Index YoY -1.20% — -1.80% — 04/12/24 U. of Mich. Sentiment 79 — 79.4 — 04/12/24 U. of Mich. Current Conditions 81.3 — 82.5 — 04/12/24 U. of Mich. Expectations 78 — 77.4 — 04/12/24 U. of Mich. 1 Yr Inflation 2.90% — 2.90% — 04/12/24 U. of Mich. 5-10 Yr Inflation 2.80% — 2.80% —
Hafizan Hamzah Senior Director, Investment Management Group
LinkedIn
ALM First offers investment advisory services through ALM First Financial Advisors, LLC, which is registered with the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (“SEC”). SEC registration does not constitute an endorsement of the firm by the SEC nor does it indicate that the firm has attained a particular level of skill or ability. The information contained herein does not constitute investment advice or a recommendation for you to purchase or sell any specific security. You are solely responsible for reviewing the content and for any actions you take or choose not to take based on your review of such content.
Information contained herein was derived from third party sources as indicated. While such information is believed to be reliable, no representation or warranty is made concerning the accuracy of any information presented. We have not and will not independently verify this information. Where such sources include opinions and projections, such opinions and projections should be ascribed only to the applicable third party source and not to ALM First.
Statements herein that reflect projections or expectations of future financial or economic performance are forward-looking statements. Such “forward-looking” statements are based on various assumptions, which assumptions may not prove to be correct. Accordingly, there can be no assurance that such assumptions and statements will accurately predict future events or actual performance. No representation or warranty can be given that the estimates, opinions or assumptions made herein will prove to be accurate. Any projections and forward-looking statements included herein should be considered speculative and are qualified in their entirety by the information and risks disclosed in the confidential offering document. Actual results for any period may or may not approximate such forward-looking statements. No representations or warranties whatsoever are made by ALM First Financial Advisors, LLC or any other person or entity as to the future profitability of investments recommended by ALM First Financial Advisors, LLC.
