Markets are reversing much of Friday’s risk-off trade on speculation (hope) that a broader Middle East war can be avoided.
Treasury yields are 5-6 basis points lower, oil prices are down nearly 1%, and S&P 500 futures are up more than 0.5% as of 8:15am EDT. This week’s economic calendar is relatively light, headlined by the March retail sales report later this morning. Several Fed leaders will speak this week, including three separate appearances today (Logan, Williams, and Daly).
A Reuters article last week highlighted a source of stubborn consumer inflation pressure via car insurance premiums, which were up 22.2% year-over-year in March according to Labor Department data. That is the biggest annual increase since the 1970s. The rise in care insurance costs comes despite declines in new and used car prices over the same timeframe. According to Kelley Blue Book, the cost of insurance for compact cars, for example, will grow to 26% in 2024 compared to 16% in 2019.
Jason Haley
Chief Investment Officer
| Date | Event | Survey | Actual | Prior | Revised |
| 4/15/2024 | Empire Manufacturing | -5.2 | -14.3 | -20.9 | — |
| 4/15/2024 | Retail Sales Advance MoM | 0.40% | 0.70% | 0.60% | 0.90% |
| 4/15/2024 | Retail Sales Ex Auto MoM | 0.50% | 1.10% | 0.30% | 0.60% |
| 4/15/2024 | Retail Sales Ex Auto and Gas | 0.30% | 1.00% | 0.30% | 0.50% |
| 4/15/2024 | Retail Sales Control Group | 0.40% | 1.10% | 0.00% | 0.30% |
| 4/15/2024 | Business Inventories | 0.40% | — | 0.00% | — |
| 4/15/2024 | NAHB Housing Market Index | 51 | — | 51 | — |
| 4/16/2024 | Housing Starts | 1480k | — | 1521k | — |
| 4/16/2024 | Building Permits | 1510k | — | 1518k | 1524k |
| 4/16/2024 | Housing Starts MoM | -2.70% | — | 10.70% | — |
| 4/16/2024 | Building Permits MoM | -0.90% | — | 1.90% | 2.40% |
| 4/16/2024 | New York Fed Services Business Activity | — | — | 0.6 | — |
| 4/16/2024 | Industrial Production MoM | 0.40% | — | 0.10% | — |
| 4/16/2024 | Capacity Utilization | 78.50% | — | 78.30% | — |
| 4/16/2024 | Manufacturing (SIC) Production | 0.20% | — | 0.80% | — |
| 4/17/2024 | MBA Mortgage Applications | — | — | 0.10% | — |
| 4/17/2024 | Federal Reserve Releases Beige Book | ||||
| 4/17/2024 | Total Net TIC Flows | — | — | -$8.8b | — |
| 4/17/2024 | Net Long-term TIC Flows | — | — | $36.1b | — |
| 4/18/2024 | Philadelphia Fed Business Outlook | 2.5 | — | 3.2 | — |
| 4/18/2024 | Initial Jobless Claims | 215k | — | 211k | — |
| 4/18/2024 | Continuing Claims | 1822k | — | 1817k | — |
| 4/18/2024 | Leading Index | -0.10% | — | 0.10% | — |
| 4/18/2024 | Existing Home Sales | 4.20m | — | 4.38m | — |
| 4/18/2024 | Existing Home Sales MoM | -4.10% | — | 9.50% | — |
| 4/19/2024 | Bloomberg April United States Economic Survey | ||||
| 4/22/2024 | Chicago Fed Nat Activity Index | — | — | 0.05 | — |
