Treasuries are selling off this morning with yields 2 to 3 bps higher.
Continued concerns over a trade war as countries ratchet up tariffs. North American tariffs were put on pause for 30 days after the US, Mexico, and Canada came to an agreement regarding border security. Trade between the three nations represents one of the world’s largest trading blocs, with trade between the US and Canada accounting for roughly $920 billion and $900 billion between Mexico and the US. The possibility of tariffs between the three nations has created a lot of uncertainty and riled markets.
Hafizan Hamzah
Senior Director, Investment Management Group
| Date | Event | Surv(M) | Actual | Prior |
| 02/04/25 | JOLTS Job Openings | 8000k | — | 8098k |
| 02/04/25 | JOLTS Job Openings Rate | 4.80% | — | 4.80% |
| 02/04/25 | JOLTS Quits Level | 3112k | — | 3065k |
| 02/04/25 | JOLTS Quits Rate | — | — | 1.90% |
| 02/04/25 | JOLTS Layoffs Level | 1743k | — | 1765k |
| 02/04/25 | JOLTS Layoffs Rate | — | — | 1.10% |
| 02/04/25 | Factory Orders | -0.80% | — | -0.40% |
| 02/04/25 | Factory Orders Ex Trans | — | — | 0.20% |
| 02/04/25 | Durable Goods Orders | -2.20% | — | -2.20% |
| 02/04/25 | Durables Ex Transportation | 0.30% | — | 0.30% |
| 02/04/25 | Cap Goods Orders Nondef Ex Air | 0.50% | — | 0.50% |
| 02/04/25 | Cap Goods Ship Nondef Ex Air | 0.60% | — | 0.60% |
| 02/05/25 | MBA Mortgage Applications | — | — | -2.00% |
| 02/05/25 | ADP Employment Change | 150k | — | 122k |
| 02/05/25 | Trade Balance | -$96.8b | — | -$78.2b |
| 02/05/25 | S&P Global US Services PMI | 52.9 | — | 52.8 |
| 02/05/25 | S&P Global US Composite PMI | 52.5 | — | 52.4 |
| 02/05/25 | ISM Services Index | 54 | — | 54.1 |
| 02/05/25 | ISM Services New Orders | — | — | 54.2 |
| 02/05/25 | ISM Services Employment | — | — | 51.4 |
| 02/05/25 | ISM Services Prices Paid | — | — | 64.4 |
| 02/06/25 | Challenger Job Cuts YoY | — | — | 11.40% |
| 02/06/25 | Nonfarm Productivity | 1.20% | — | 2.20% |
| 02/06/25 | Unit Labor Costs | 3.40% | — | 0.80% |
| 02/06/25 | Initial Jobless Claims | 213k | — | 207k |
| 02/06/25 | Continuing Claims | 1870k | — | 1858k |
| 02/07/25 | Annual Revisions: Establishment Survey Data | |||
| 02/07/25 | Change in Nonfarm Payrolls | 170k | — | 256k |
| 02/07/25 | Two-Month Payroll Net Revision | — | — | -8k |
| 02/07/25 | Change in Private Payrolls | 150k | — | 223k |
| 02/07/25 | Change in Manufact. Payrolls | -2k | — | -13k |
| 02/07/25 | Average Hourly Earnings MoM | 0.30% | — | 0.30% |
| 02/07/25 | Average Hourly Earnings YoY | 3.80% | — | 3.90% |
| 02/07/25 | Average Weekly Hours All Employees | 34.3 | — | 34.3 |
| 02/07/25 | Unemployment Rate | 4.10% | — | 4.10% |
| 02/07/25 | Labor Force Participation Rate | 62.50% | — | 62.50% |
| 02/07/25 | Underemployment Rate | — | — | 7.50% |
| 02/07/25 | U. of Mich. Sentiment | 71.8 | — | 71.1 |
| 02/07/25 | Wholesale Inventories MoM | -0.50% | — | -0.50% |
| 02/07/25 | Wholesale Trade Sales MoM | 0.50% | — | 0.60% |
| 02/07/25 | U. of Mich. Current Conditions | 73.6 | — | 74 |
| 02/07/25 | U. of Mich. Expectations | 70.1 | — | 69.3 |
| 02/07/25 | U. of Mich. 1 Yr Inflation | 3.30% | — | 3.30% |
| 02/07/25 | U. of Mich. 5-10 Yr Inflation | 3.20% | — | 3.20% |
| 02/07/25 | Consumer Credit | $18.000b | — | -$7.489b |
