Site Search

Looking for something? Use the search bar below or visit our Resources page.


Author Jason Haley

Published

Estimated

A more positive risk tone emerged overnight, pushing equity futures and Treasury yields marginally higher.

Also weighing on Treasuries somewhat this morning is the $70 billion 5-year note auction later today. Currency markets remain choppy, with the Bloomberg US dollar index falling to the lowest level since March 2022, just before the Fed’s rate hike cycle. The most recent weakness coincides with the signals of U.S. intervention/support to boost the struggling Japanese yen in recent days. Later this morning, the November home price data will be released (S&P Case Shiller), as well as the January Conference Board consumer confidence survey.

Jason Haley
Chief Investment Officer

DateEventSurveyActualPrior
1/27/2026ADP Weekly Employment Change     —7.750k8.000k
1/27/2026FHFA House Price Index MoM0.30%     —0.40%
1/27/2026S&P Cotality CS 20-City MoM SA0.22%     —0.32%
1/27/2026S&P Cotality CS 20-City YoY NSA1.20%     —1.31%
1/27/2026S&P Cotality CS US HPI YoY NSA1.30%     —1.36%
1/27/2026Richmond Fed Manufact. Index-5     —-7
1/27/2026Richmond Fed Business Conditions-7     —-11
1/27/2026Conf. Board Consumer Confidence91     —89.1
1/27/2026Conf. Board Present Situation     —     —116.8
1/27/2026Conf. Board Expectations     —     —70.7
1/27/2026Dallas Fed Services Activity-2.4     —-3.3
1/28/2026MBA Mortgage Applications     —     —14.10%
1/28/2026FOMC Rate Decision (Upper Bound)3.75%     —3.75%
1/28/2026FOMC Rate Decision (Lower Bound)3.50%     —3.50%
1/28/2026Fed Interest on Reserve Balances Rate3.65%     —3.65%
1/28/2026Fed Reverse Repo Rate     —     —3.50%
1/29/2026Nonfarm Productivity4.90%     —4.90%
1/29/2026Unit Labor Costs-1.90%     —-1.90%
1/29/2026Initial Jobless Claims205k     —200k
1/29/2026Initial Claims 4-Wk Moving Avg     —     —201.50k
1/29/2026Continuing Claims1855k     —1849k
1/29/2026Trade Balance-$44.1b     —-$29.4b
1/29/2026Exports MoM     —     —2.60%
1/29/2026Imports MoM     —     —-3.20%
1/29/2026Factory Orders1.60%     —-1.30%
1/29/2026Durable Goods Orders     —     —5.30%
1/29/2026Factory Orders Ex Trans     —     —-0.20%
1/29/2026Durables Ex Transportation     —     —0.50%
1/29/2026Cap Goods Orders Nondef Ex Air     —     —0.70%
1/29/2026Cap Goods Ship Nondef Ex Air     —     —0.40%
1/29/2026Wholesale Inventories MoM0.20%     —0.20%
1/29/2026Wholesale Trade Sales MoM     —     —-0.40%
1/30/2026PPI Final Demand MoM0.20%     —0.20%
1/30/2026PPI Ex Food and Energy MoM0.20%     —0.00%
1/30/2026PPI Ex Food, Energy, Trade MoM0.30%     —0.20%
1/30/2026PPI Final Demand YoY2.80%     —3.00%
1/30/2026PPI Ex Food and Energy YoY2.90%     —3.00%
1/30/2026PPI Ex Food, Energy, Trade YoY     —     —3.50%
1/30/2026MNI Chicago PMI43.5     —43.5
2/01/2026-2/10/2026Final Benchmark Payrolls Revision     —     —     —
2/01/2026-2/13/2026Retail Sales Advance MoM     —     —0.60%
2/01/2026-2/05/2026Durable Goods Orders     —     —     —
2/01/2026-2/13/2026Retail Sales Ex Auto MoM     —     —0.50%
2/01/2026-2/05/2026Durables Ex Transportation     —     —     —
2/01/2026-2/13/2026Business Inventories     —     —0.30%
2/01/2026-2/13/2026Retail Sales Ex Auto and Gas     —     —0.40%
2/01/2026-2/05/2026Cap Goods Orders Nondef Ex Air     —     —     —
2/01/2026-2/13/2026Retail Sales Control Group     —     —0.40%
2/01/2026-2/05/2026Cap Goods Ship Nondef Ex Air     —     —     —
2/2/2026S&P Global US Manufacturing PMI     —     —51.9
2/2/2026ISM Manufacturing48.3     —47.9
2/2/2026ISM Prices Paid     —     —58.5
2/2/2026ISM New Orders     —     —47.7
2/2/2026ISM Employment     —     —44.9
2/2/2026US Treasury Quarterly Borrowing Estimates   
2/02/2026-2/18/2026Housing Starts     —     —1246k
2/02/2026-2/18/2026Building Permits     —     —1411k
2/02/2026-2/18/2026Housing Starts MoM     —     —-4.60%
2/02/2026-2/18/2026Building Permits MoM     —     —-0.30%
2/3/2026JOLTS Job Openings     —     —7146k
2/3/2026JOLTS Job Openings Rate     —     —4.30%
2/3/2026JOLTS Quits Level     —     —3161k
2/3/2026JOLTS Quits Rate     —     —2.00%
2/3/2026JOLTS Layoffs Level     —     —1687k
2/3/2026JOLTS Layoffs Rate     —     —1.10%
2/03/2026Wards Total Vehicle Sales15.80m     —16.02m

Jason Haley

Chief Investment Officer

LinkedIn

  Headline Disclaimer

ALM First offers investment advisory services through ALM First Financial Advisors, LLC, which is registered with the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (“SEC”). SEC registration does not constitute an endorsement of the firm by the SEC nor does it indicate that the firm has attained a particular level of skill or ability. The information contained herein does not constitute investment advice or a recommendation for you to purchase or sell any specific security. You are solely responsible for reviewing the content and for any actions you take or choose not to take based on your review of such content.

Information contained herein was derived from third party sources as indicated. While such information is believed to be reliable, no representation or warranty is made concerning the accuracy of any information presented. We have not and will not independently verify this information. Where such sources include opinions and projections, such opinions and projections should be ascribed only to the applicable third party source and not to ALM First.

Statements herein that reflect projections or expectations of future financial or economic performance are forward-looking statements. Such “forward-looking” statements are based on various assumptions, which assumptions may not prove to be correct. Accordingly, there can be no assurance that such assumptions and statements will accurately predict future events or actual performance. No representation or warranty can be given that the estimates, opinions or assumptions made herein will prove to be accurate. Any projections and forward-looking statements included herein should be considered speculative and are qualified in their entirety by the information and risks disclosed in the confidential offering document. Actual results for any period may or may not approximate such forward-looking statements. No representations or warranties whatsoever are made by ALM First Financial Advisors, LLC or any other person or entity as to the future profitability of investments recommended by ALM First Financial Advisors, LLC.



Recent Beyond The Headlines


  Headlines RSS
Strategic Partners

Let’s Work Together

ALM First is your agile partner with a trusted history of delivering results.