Long-end Treasury yields are 3-4 basis points lower amid a modest curve flattening trade.
It was a sleepy weekend from a financial headlines perspective, and the overnight trading session was relatively quiet. The main focus for this week will be the FOMC meeting on Wednesday, but we will also have the July jobs report released on Friday. In addition to the Fed, central banks in the U.K. and Japan will also announce policy decisions mid-week. For the U.S. and U.K., the next moves are expected to be rate cuts, while the Bank of Japan likely hikes its benchmark policy rate.
Jason Haley
Chief Investment Officer
| Date | Event | Surv(M) | Actual | Prior | Revised |
| 07/29/24 | Dallas Fed Manf. Activity | -14.2 | — | -15.1 | — |
| 07/30/24 | FHFA House Price Index MoM | 0.30% | — | 0.20% | — |
| 07/30/24 | S&P CoreLogic CS 20-City MoM SA | 0.30% | — | 0.38% | — |
| 07/30/24 | S&P CoreLogic CS US HPI YoY NSA | — | — | 6.29% | — |
| 07/30/24 | S&P CoreLogic CS 20-City YoY NSA | 6.50% | — | 7.20% | — |
| 07/30/24 | JOLTS Job Openings | 8055k | — | 8140k | — |
| 07/30/24 | Conf. Board Consumer Confidence | 99.5 | — | 100.4 | — |
| 07/30/24 | Conf. Board Present Situation | — | — | 141.5 | — |
| 07/30/24 | Conf. Board Expectations | — | — | 73 | — |
| 07/30/24 | Dallas Fed Services Activity | — | — | -4.1 | — |
| 07/31/24 | MBA Mortgage Applications | — | — | -2.20% | — |
| 07/31/24 | ADP Employment Change | 150k | — | 150k | — |
| 07/31/24 | Employment Cost Index | 1.00% | — | 1.20% | — |
| 07/31/24 | MNI Chicago PMI | 45 | — | 47.4 | — |
| 07/31/24 | Pending Home Sales MoM | 1.10% | — | -2.10% | — |
| 07/31/24 | Pending Home Sales NSA YoY | — | — | -6.60% | — |
| 07/31/24 | FOMC Rate Decision (Upper Bound) | 5.50% | — | 5.50% | — |
| 07/31/24 | FOMC Rate Decision (Lower Bound) | 5.25% | — | 5.25% | — |
| 07/31/24 | Fed Interest on Reserve Balances Rate | 5.40% | — | 5.40% | — |
| 08/01/24 | Challenger Job Cuts YoY | — | — | 19.80% | — |
| 08/01/24 | Nonfarm Productivity | 1.80% | — | 0.20% | — |
| 08/01/24 | Unit Labor Costs | 1.80% | — | 4.00% | — |
| 08/01/24 | Initial Jobless Claims | 236k | — | 235k | — |
| 08/01/24 | Continuing Claims | 1855k | — | 1851k | — |
| 08/01/24 | S&P Global US Manufacturing PMI | 49.5 | — | 49.5 | — |
| 08/01/24 | Construction Spending MoM | 0.20% | — | -0.10% | — |
| 08/01/24 | ISM Manufacturing | 48.8 | — | 48.5 | — |
| 08/01/24 | ISM Prices Paid | — | — | 52.1 | — |
| 08/01/24 | ISM New Orders | — | — | 49.3 | — |
| 08/01/24 | ISM Employment | — | — | 49.3 | — |
| 08/01/24 | Wards Total Vehicle Sales | 16.20m | — | 15.29m | — |
| 08/02/24 | Two-Month Payroll Net Revision | — | — | -111k | — |
| 08/02/24 | Change in Nonfarm Payrolls | 175k | — | 206k | — |
| 08/02/24 | Change in Private Payrolls | 150k | — | 136k | — |
| 08/02/24 | Change in Manufact. Payrolls | -7k | — | -8k | — |
| 08/02/24 | Unemployment Rate | 4.10% | — | 4.10% | — |
| 08/02/24 | Average Hourly Earnings MoM | 0.30% | — | 0.30% | — |
| 08/02/24 | Average Hourly Earnings YoY | 3.70% | — | 3.90% | — |
| 08/02/24 | Average Weekly Hours All Employees | 34.3 | — | 34.3 | — |
| 08/02/24 | Labor Force Participation Rate | 62.60% | — | 62.60% | — |
| 08/02/24 | Underemployment Rate | — | — | 7.40% | — |
| 08/02/24 | Factory Orders | -3.10% | — | -0.50% | — |
| 08/02/24 | Factory Orders Ex Trans | — | — | -0.70% | — |
| 08/02/24 | Durable Goods Orders | -6.60% | — | -6.60% | — |
| 08/02/24 | Durables Ex Transportation | — | — | 0.50% | — |
| 08/02/24 | Cap Goods Orders Nondef Ex Air | — | — | 1.00% | — |
| 08/02/24 | Cap Goods Ship Nondef Ex Air | — | — | 0.10% | — |
