Treasury yields are higher and steeper (+2-5 bps) amid heavier government bond supply today from Europe and the U.S. Additionally, New Zealand’s central bank provided a hawkish surprise overnight, choosing to hold steady on its benchmark policy rate as opposed to a 0.25% cut. Financial markets are once again in a holding pattern on trade policy following yesterday’s White House announcement that the July 9 deadline would be effectively extended to August 1. Letters were reportedly sent to officials from South Korea and Japan, noting that 25% tariffs would be applied at that time if no deals were in place. If nothing else, all of this reveals the complexities and challenges of negotiating fresh trade deals, which can take years to accomplish on a bilateral basis with just one country, much less the whole world.
Jason Haley Chief Investment Officer
Date Event Survey Actual Prior 7/8/2025 NFIB Small Business Optimism 98.6 98.6 98.8 7/8/2025 NY Fed 1-Yr Inflation Expectations 3.13% — 3.20% 7/8/2025 Consumer Credit $10.500b — $17.873b 7/9/2025 MBA Mortgage Applications — — 2.70% 7/9/2025 Wholesale Trade Sales MoM 0.20% — 0.10% 7/9/2025 Wholesale Inventories MoM -0.30% — -0.30% 7/9/2025 FOMC Meeting Minutes — — — 7/10/2025 Initial Jobless Claims 235k — 233k 7/10/2025 Initial Claims 4-Wk Moving Avg — — 241.50k 7/10/2025 Continuing Claims 1965k — 1964k 7/11/2025 Federal Budget Balance -$37.0b — -$316.0b 7/15/2025 Real Avg Weekly Earnings YoY — — 1.50% 7/15/2025 Empire Manufacturing -10 — -16 7/15/2025 CPI MoM 0.30% — 0.10% 7/15/2025 CPI Ex Food and Energy MoM 0.30% — 0.10% 7/15/2025 CPI YoY 2.70% — 2.40% 7/15/2025 CPI Ex Food and Energy YoY 3.00% — 2.80% 7/15/2025 CPI Index NSA 322.566 — 321.465 7/15/2025 CPI Core Index SA — — 326.854 7/15/2025 Real Avg Hourly Earning YoY — — 1.40%
Jason Haley Chief Investment Officer
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