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Author Jason Haley

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Treasury yields are 3-5 basis points higher to start the week following last week’s rally that was fueled by softer inflation data and turmoil in French financial markets. 

The latter have been relatively stable so far today. The recent trend in consumer spending and inflation data has short-term rates markets now more fully priced for two Fed rate cuts later this year, but Fed leaders suggest the need for further evidence of disinflation progress. May retail sales data will be released tomorrow, which should be the most consequential data release this week. Several Fed leaders will speak this week, including three today (Williams, Harker, and Cook).

Jason Haley
Chief Investment Officer

DateEventSurveyActualPriorRevised
6/17/2024Empire Manufacturing-10-6-15.6—
6/18/2024New York Fed Services Business Activity——3—
6/18/2024Retail Sales Advance MoM0.30%—0.00%—
6/18/2024Retail Sales Ex Auto MoM0.20%—0.20%—
6/18/2024Retail Sales Ex Auto and Gas0.40%—-0.10%—
6/18/2024Retail Sales Control Group0.40%—-0.30%—
6/18/2024Industrial Production MoM0.30%—0.00%—
6/18/2024Capacity Utilization78.60%—78.40%—
6/18/2024Manufacturing (SIC) Production0.30%—-0.30%—
6/18/2024Business Inventories0.30%—-0.10%—
6/18/2024Total Net TIC Flows——$102.1b—
6/18/2024Net Long-term TIC Flows——$100.5b—
6/19/2024MBA Mortgage Applications——15.60%—
6/19/2024NAHB Housing Market Index45—45—
6/20/2024Current Account Balance-$206.8b—-$194.8b—
6/20/2024Initial Jobless Claims235k—242k—
6/20/2024Continuing Claims1802k—1820k—
6/20/2024Housing Starts1375k—1360k—
6/20/2024Building Permits1450k—1440k—
6/20/2024Housing Starts MoM1.10%—5.70%—
6/20/2024Building Permits MoM0.70%—-3.00%—
6/20/2024Philadelphia Fed Business Outlook4.8—4.5—
6/21/2024S&P Global US Manufacturing PMI51—51.3—
6/21/2024S&P Global US Services PMI53.4—54.8—
6/21/2024S&P Global US Composite PMI——54.5—
6/21/2024Leading Index-0.40%—-0.60%—
6/21/2024Existing Home Sales4.09m—4.14m—
6/21/2024Existing Home Sales MoM-1.20%—-1.90%—
6/24/2024Bloomberg June United States Economic Survey    
6/24/2024Dallas Fed Manf. Activity——-19.4—

Jason Haley

Chief Investment Officer

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