February CPI came in softer than expected with prices up 0.2% on the month vs 0.3% expected. Core CPI, which excludes food and energy costs, also rose by 0.2%; slower than the expected pace of 0.3%. Shelter costs were the largest driver of February’s price increase, accounting for nearly half of the move. Airfare fell by 4% as concerns over weaker demand brought down prices.
Hafizan Hamzah Senior Director, Investment Management Group
Date Event Surv(M) Actual Prior 3/12/2025 MBA Mortgage Applications — 11.20% 20.40% 3/12/2025 CPI MoM 0.30% 0.20% 0.50% 3/12/2025 CPI Ex Food and Energy MoM 0.30% 0.20% 0.40% 3/12/2025 CPI YoY 2.90% 2.80% 3.00% 3/12/2025 CPI Ex Food and Energy YoY 3.20% 3.10% 3.30% 3/12/2025 CPI Index NSA 319.268 319.082 317.671 3/12/2025 CPI Core Index SA 325.713 325.475 324.739 3/12/2025 Real Avg Hourly Earning YoY — 1.20% 1.00% 3/12/2025 Real Avg Weekly Earnings YoY — 0.60% 0.70% 3/12/2025 Federal Budget Balance -$308.0b — -$296.3b 3/13/2025 PPI Final Demand MoM 0.30% — 0.40% 3/13/2025 PPI Ex Food and Energy MoM 0.30% — 0.30% 3/13/2025 PPI Ex Food, Energy, Trade MoM 0.30% — 0.30% 3/13/2025 PPI Final Demand YoY 3.30% — 3.50% 3/13/2025 PPI Ex Food and Energy YoY 3.50% — 3.60% 3/13/2025 PPI Ex Food, Energy, Trade YoY 3.40% — 3.40% 3/13/2025 Initial Jobless Claims 225k — 221k 3/13/2025 Continuing Claims 1888k — 1897k 3/13/2025 Household Change in Net Worth — — $4766b 3/14/2025 U. of Mich. Sentiment 63.1 — 64.7 3/14/2025 U. of Mich. Current Conditions 64.4 — 65.7 3/14/2025 U. of Mich. Expectations 63 — 64 3/14/2025 U. of Mich. 1 Yr Inflation 4.20% — 4.30% 3/14/2025 U. of Mich. 5-10 Yr Inflation 3.40% — 3.50%
Hafizan Hamzah Senior Director, Investment Management Group
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