Treasury yields are up another 2-3 basis points this morning as selling bias remains prominent in global bond markets.
This bearish tone corresponds with still-elevated oil prices (Brent crude ~$110) and no clear progress in opening the Strait of Hormuz to this point. The 30-year Treasury bond yield is now at 5.15%, the highest since 2007. While not at 19-year highs, yields on the front-end of the curve (2yr-5yr) are now the highest since early 2025. Despite the ongoing increase in benchmark yields and rising implied interest rate volatility, risk markets continue to strengthen. The S&P 500 is up 2.7% so far in May, and fixed income credit spreads are tighter on the month.
Jason Haley
Chief Investment Officer
| Date | Event | Survey | Actual | Prior | Revised |
| 5/19/2026 | ADP Weekly Employment Change | — | 42.250k | 33.000k | — |
| 5/19/2026 | Pending Home Sales MoM | 1.00% | — | 1.50% | — |
| 5/19/2026 | Pending Home Sales NSA YoY | 2.10% | — | 1.80% | — |
| 5/20/2026 | MBA Mortgage Applications | — | — | 1.70% | — |
| 5/20/2026 | FOMC Meeting Minutes | — | — | — | — |
| 5/21/2026 | Initial Jobless Claims | 210k | — | 211k | — |
| 5/21/2026 | Initial Claims 4-Wk Moving Avg | — | — | 203.75k | — |
| 5/21/2026 | Continuing Claims | 1787k | — | 1782k | — |
| 5/21/2026 | Philadelphia Fed Business Outlook | 18 | — | 26.7 | — |
| 5/21/2026 | Housing Starts | 1419k | — | 1502k | — |
| 5/21/2026 | Housing Starts MoM | -5.10% | — | 10.80% | — |
| 5/21/2026 | Building Permits | 1384k | — | 1363k | — |
| 5/21/2026 | Building Permits MoM | 2.30% | — | -11.40% | — |
| 5/21/2026 | S&P Global US Manufacturing PMI | 53.8 | — | 54.5 | — |
| 5/21/2026 | S&P Global US Services PMI | 51.2 | — | 51 | — |
| 5/21/2026 | S&P Global US Composite PMI | 51.6 | — | 51.7 | — |
| 5/21/2026 | Kansas City Fed Manf. Activity | 8 | — | 10 | — |
| 5/22/2026 | Bloomberg May United States Economic Survey | ||||
| 5/22/2026 | U. of Mich. Sentiment | 48.2 | — | 48.2 | — |
| 5/22/2026 | U. of Mich. Current Conditions | 47.9 | — | 47.8 | — |
| 5/22/2026 | U. of Mich. Expectations | 48.5 | — | 48.5 | — |
| 5/22/2026 | U. of Mich. 1 Yr Inflation | — | — | 4.50% | — |
| 5/22/2026 | U. of Mich. 5-10 Yr Inflation | 3.40% | — | 3.40% | — |
| 5/22/2026 | Kansas City Fed Services Activity | — | — | 3 | — |
| 5/26/2026 | ADP Weekly Employment Change | — | — | 42.250k | — |
| 5/26/2026 | Chicago Fed Nat Activity Index | — | — | -0.2 | — |
| 5/26/2026 | Philadelphia Fed Non-Manufacturing Activity | — | — | -16.5 | — |
| 5/26/2026 | FHFA House Price Index MoM | — | — | 0.00% | — |
| 5/26/2026 | House Price Purchase Index QoQ | — | — | 0.80% | — |
| 5/26/2026 | S&P Cotality CS 20-City MoM SA | — | — | -0.05% | — |
| 5/26/2026 | S&P Cotality CS 20-City YoY NSA | — | — | 0.90% | — |
| 5/26/2026 | S&P Cotality CS US HPI YoY NSA | — | — | 0.67% | — |
| 5/26/2026 | Conf. Board Consumer Confidence | 92.5 | — | 92.8 | — |
| 5/26/2026 | Conf. Board Present Situation | — | — | 123.8 | — |
| 5/26/2026 | Conf. Board Expectations | — | — | 72.2 | — |
| 5/26/2026 | Dallas Fed Manf. Activity | — | — | -2.3 | — |
