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Author Hafizan Hamzah

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Traders are in wait-and-see mode with respect to an Iran peace deal, which has pushed Treasury yields 2 to 4 bps higher this morning.

After Trump announced yesterday that the US was in the “final stages” of peace talks, Treasury yields sharply rallied with yields 6 to 9 bps lower across the curve. Some of these gains have been given back as investors are looking for tangible progress. A statement from Iran’s Supreme Leader Khamenei that they mush keep its near-weapons-grade uranium has dampened optimism a bit.

Initial jobless claims came in just below expectations at 209,000; median forecast called for 210,000. The four-week moving average fell to 202,500, it’s lowest level since 2024. Continuing claims rose slightly to 1.786 million from 1.782 million.

The market will close early tomorrow at 2 PM EDT ahead of the Memorial Day holiday on Monday.

Hafizan Hamzah
Senior Director

DateEventSurv(M)ActualPrior
5/18/2026New York Fed Services Business Activity     —-5.8-14
5/18/2026NAHB Housing Market Index343734
5/18/2026Total Net TIC Flows     —$150.7b$184.5b
5/18/2026Net Long-term TIC Flows     —$81.3b$58.6b
5/19/2026ADP Weekly Employment Change     —42.250k33.000k
5/19/2026Pending Home Sales MoM1.00%1.40%1.50%
5/19/2026Pending Home Sales NSA YoY2.10%3.30%1.80%
5/20/2026MBA Mortgage Applications     —-2.30%1.70%
5/20/2026FOMC Meeting Minutes     —     —     —
5/21/2026Initial Jobless Claims210k209k211k
5/21/2026Initial Claims 4-Wk Moving Avg     —202.50k203.75k
5/21/2026Continuing Claims1786k1782k1782k
5/21/2026Philadelphia Fed Business Outlook17.8-0.426.7
5/21/2026Housing Starts1410k1465k1502k
5/21/2026Housing Starts MoM-5.30%-2.80%10.80%
5/21/2026Building Permits1384k1442k1363k
5/21/2026Building Permits MoM2.50%5.80%-11.40%
5/21/2026S&P Global US Manufacturing PMI53.8     —54.5
5/21/2026S&P Global US Services PMI51.2     —51
5/21/2026S&P Global US Composite PMI51.8     —51.7
5/21/2026Kansas City Fed Manf. Activity9     —10
5/22/2026Bloomberg May United States Economic Survey   
5/22/2026U. of Mich. Sentiment48.2     —48.2
5/22/2026U. of Mich. Current Conditions47.9     —47.8
5/22/2026U. of Mich. Expectations48.5     —48.5
5/22/2026U. of Mich. 1 Yr Inflation     —     —4.50%
5/22/2026U. of Mich. 5-10 Yr Inflation3.40%     —3.40%
5/22/2026Kansas City Fed Services Activity     —     —3

Hafizan Hamzah

Senior Director, Investment Management Group

LinkedIn

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