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Author Jason Haley

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Softer economic data out of Europe overnight has Treasury yields 1-2 basis points lower to start the day.

The tone in fixed income this morning is being characterized by some as risk-off despite US equity futures pointing to a higher open. Later this morning, S&P will release preliminary November PMI data, as will the final University of Michigan consumer sentiment survey results for November. Several Fed leaders are speaking today as well, most of whom are voting members of the FOMC this year.

Yesterday, the Congressional Budget Office (CBO) slashed its estimate of tariff-related budget savings by $1 trillion over the next decade. Back in August, the CBO had increased this estimate to $4 trillion, which would more than cover the estimated $3.4 trillion impact of the One Big Beautiful Bill Act, which included President Trump’s signature tax cut extensions. The reduction in tariff estimates follows recent trade deals announced by the White House. This is being closely watched by interest rate markets, particularly Treasuries, because of the potential impact on Treasury issuance in the coming years to cover budget deficits. Independent of the potential economic impact of tariffs, rates markets have been responding favorably to those revenues given the bond supply implications. If tariff revenues are expected to fall, it will likely put upward pressure on long-end Treasury yields, all else equal.

Jason Haley
Chief Investment Officer

DateEventSurveyActualPrior
11/21/2025Bloomberg Nov. United States Economic Survey   
11/21/2025Real Avg Hourly Earning YoY     —0.80%0.70%
11/21/2025Real Avg Weekly Earnings YoY     —0.70%0.40%
11/21/2025S&P Global US Manufacturing PMI52     —52.5
11/21/2025S&P Global US Services PMI54.6     —54.8
11/21/2025S&P Global US Composite PMI54.5     —54.6
11/21/2025U. of Mich. Sentiment50.6     —50.3
11/21/2025U. of Mich. Current Conditions     —     —52.3
11/21/2025U. of Mich. Expectations     —     —49
11/21/2025U. of Mich. 1 Yr Inflation4.70%     —4.70%
11/21/2025U. of Mich. 5-10 Yr Inflation3.60%     —3.60%
11/21/2025Wholesale Inventories MoM     —     —-0.20%
11/21/2025Wholesale Trade Sales MoM     —     —1.40%
11/21/2025Kansas City Fed Services Activity     —     —-5
11/21/2025-12/19/2025Housing Starts1329k     —1307k
11/21/2025-12/19/2025Advance Goods Trade Balance     —     —-$85.5b
11/21/2025-12/19/2025Advance Goods Exports MoM SA     —     —-1.30%
11/21/2025-12/19/2025Advance Goods Imports MoM SA     —     —-7.00%
11/21/2025-12/19/2025Building Permits1347k     —1330k
11/21/2025-12/19/2025Housing Starts MoM1.70%     —     —
11/21/2025-12/19/2025Building Permits MoM1.30%     —     —
11/21/2025-12/19/2025Retail Inventories MoM     —     —     —
11/21/2025-11/24/2025Federal Budget Balance-$230.0b     —-$257.5b
11/21/2025-12/19/2025New Home Sales     —     —     —
11/21/2025-12/19/2025New Home Sales MoM     —     —     —
11/24/2025Chicago Fed Nat Activity Index     —     —     —
11/24/2025Dallas Fed Manf. Activity     —     —-5
11/24/2025Fed Releases Annual Revision to Industrial Production   
11/25/2025Philadelphia Fed Non-Manufacturing Activity     —     —-22.2
11/25/2025Retail Sales Advance MoM     —     —0.60%
11/25/2025Retail Sales Ex Auto MoM     —     —     —
11/25/2025Retail Sales Ex Auto and Gas     —     —     —
11/25/2025Retail Sales Control Group     —     —     —
11/25/2025PPI Final Demand MoM     —     —-0.10%
11/25/2025PPI Ex Food and Energy MoM     —     —-0.10%
11/25/2025PPI Ex Food, Energy, Trade MoM     —     —0.30%
11/25/2025PPI Final Demand YoY     —     —2.60%
11/25/2025PPI Ex Food and Energy YoY     —     —2.80%
11/25/2025PPI Ex Food, Energy, Trade YoY     —     —2.80%
11/25/2025FHFA House Price Index MoM     —     —0.40%
11/25/2025House Price Purchase Index QoQ     —     —0.00%
11/25/2025S&P Cotality CS 20-City MoM SA     —     —0.19%
11/25/2025S&P Cotality CS 20-City YoY NSA     —     —1.58%
11/25/2025S&P Cotality CS US HPI YoY NSA     —     —1.51%
11/25/2025Business Inventories     —     —0.20%
11/25/2025Richmond Fed Manufact. Index     —     —-4
11/25/2025Richmond Fed Business Conditions     —     —-1
11/25/2025Conf. Board Consumer Confidence93.3     —94.6
11/25/2025Conf. Board Present Situation     —     —129.3
11/25/2025Conf. Board Expectations     —     —71.5
11/25/2025Pending Home Sales MoM     —     —0.00%
11/25/2025Pending Home Sales NSA YoY     —     —1.50%
11/25/2025Dallas Fed Services Activity     —     —-9.4
11/26/2025MBA Mortgage Applications     —     —-5.20%
11/26/2025Initial Jobless Claims     —     —220k
11/26/2025Initial Claims 4-Wk Moving Avg     —     —224.25k
11/26/2025Continuing Claims     —     —1974k
11/26/2025Durable Goods Orders     —     —2.90%
11/26/2025Durables Ex Transportation     —     —0.30%
11/26/2025Cap Goods Ship Nondef Ex Air     —     —-0.40%
11/26/2025Cap Goods Orders Nondef Ex Air     —     —0.40%
11/26/2025MNI Chicago PMI     —     —43.8
11/26/2025Fed Releases Beige Book   
11/26/2025-12/24/2025Leading Index     —     —     —

Jason Haley

Chief Investment Officer

LinkedIn

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