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Author Jason Haley

Published

Estimated

A tech-led selloff in global stocks is fueling a modest risk-off rally in front-end Treasury yields to start the day.

Nasdaq 100 futures are down 1.4% an hour before the open. The softness is attributed in some part to Palantir’s earnings report, despite the company besting Q3 earnings estimates and raising its revenue outlook (i.e., buy the rumor, sell the news). A Reuters article suggests that there may be some progress being made on ending the government shutdown now in its 35th day based on comments from party leaders on both sides. A bipartisan group of House moderates are reportedly working on a compromise to extend Affordable Care Act subsidies for another two years but with caps on people with incomes at the upper end of qualifying. In her first public speech since mid-July, embattled Fed governor Lisa Cook added to the recent chorus of Fed leaders suggesting that a December rate cut is not a forgone conclusion, noting that risks are fairly balanced between potential labor market deterioration and inflation.

Jason Haley
Chief Investment Officer

DateEventSurveyActualPrior
11/4/2025List of US Economic Indicators Delayed by Government Shutdown   
11/4/2025International Trade Report Delayed by Government Shutdown   
11/4/2025JOLTS Report Delayed by Government Shutdown   
11/4/2025Factory Orders Report Delayed by Government Shutdown   
11/5/2025MBA Mortgage Applications     —     —7.10%
11/5/2025ADP Employment Change40k     —-32k
11/5/2025US Treasury Quarterly Refunding Announcement   
11/5/2025S&P Global US Services PMI55.2     —55.2
11/5/2025S&P Global US Composite PMI54.8     —54.8
11/5/2025ISM Services Index50.7     —50
11/5/2025ISM Services Prices Paid     —     —69.4
11/5/2025ISM Services New Orders     —     —50.4
11/5/2025ISM Services Employment     —     —47.2
11/6/2025Challenger Job Cuts YoY     —     —-25.80%
11/6/2025Nonfarm Productivity3.30%     —3.30%
11/6/2025Unit Labor Costs1.00%     —1.00%
11/6/2025Initial Jobless Claims225k     —     —
11/6/2025Initial Claims 4-Wk Moving Avg     —     —     —
11/6/2025Continuing Claims1946k     —     —
11/6/2025Wholesale Trade Sales MoM     —     —     —
11/6/2025Wholesale Inventories MoM     —     —     —
11/7/2025Change in Nonfarm Payrolls-25k     —     —
11/7/2025Two-Month Payroll Net Revision     —     —     —
11/7/2025Change in Private Payrolls40k     —     —
11/7/2025Change in Manufact. Payrolls     —     —     —
11/7/2025Nonfarm Payrolls 3-Mo Avg Chg     —     —     —
11/7/2025Unemployment Rate4.40%     —     —
11/7/2025Labor Force Participation Rate     —     —     —
11/7/2025Underemployment Rate     —     —     —
11/7/2025Average Hourly Earnings MoM     —     —     —
11/7/2025Average Hourly Earnings YoY     —     —     —
11/7/2025Average Weekly Hours All Employees     —     —     —
11/7/2025U. of Mich. Sentiment53     —53.6
11/7/2025U. of Mich. Current Conditions59.5     —58.6
11/7/2025U. of Mich. Expectations50.7     —50.3
11/7/2025U. of Mich. 1 Yr Inflation4.60%     —4.60%
11/7/2025U. of Mich. 5-10 Yr Inflation3.80%     —3.90%
11/7/2025NY Fed 1-Yr Inflation Expectations     —     —3.38%
11/7/2025Consumer Credit$10.230b     —$0.363b
11/11/2025NFIB Small Business Optimism     —     —98.8

Jason Haley

Chief Investment Officer

LinkedIn

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